superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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What if the race just stays as it is?I have two somewhat contradictory thoughts in response.
1. I think the models are underestimating Kamala’s odds. Based on all the variables, including but not limited to the polling on watch the models mainly rely, I think her odds are more like 75-80%. Not a guarantee by any means, but a very strong favorite.
2. The fact the models have Kamala with a lead with less than 45 days to go is part of the reason I’m so optimistic. Is it more likely that over the next six weeks, Trump will close the gap and pull ahead, or is it more likely that Kamala will maintain or slightly expand her lead? I think the latter is far more likely. We’re not yet at an 8 point lead with a minute remaining in the game, but every day that passes gets us closer. Miracles can happen, but Trump isn’t smart or savvy enough to make them happen 99% of the time.
I think if the race stays as it is, the models will start to register a higher probability for Kamala because they will be modeling less uncertainty. But there is a limit on how high she can go with this polling, and the models are probably the best way to get a sense of that limit -- certainly better than eyeballs.
As someone wrote recently, maybe on Vox, we might have an incredibly close election but a normal sized polling error could turn it into a blowout. Maybe not a landslide, but not exactly close either. Hopefully, the enthusiasm gap that favors Kamala will lead to more turnout, thus mitigating some of the damage if the polls are underestimating Trump by a point or two. But there's a lot we don't know.
I want to be optimistic as you are. I've said before that I suspect the polls are overshooting and now overestimating Trump. Kamala will surely have a better ground game. But the fact is that Kamala is winning by maybe one point in PA, and it's quite difficult for her to get the presidency without it. NC doesn't do the trick. It would have to be NC + NV, which is a tall order in an election where she's losing PA. And that's assuming she keeps MI and WI. I just can't see that as an excellent position.