2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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www.publicnotice.co

How the hell is this even close?

It boggles the mind. But it's not unexplainable.
www.publicnotice.co www.publicnotice.co

Republicans want unending Trumpism. The rest of us don’t.​

A major reason that Harris isn’t “running away with this” is because an overwhelming majority of white voters don’t find Trump’s malicious nature and fundamental unfitness disqualifying.

An Emerson College poll from last Friday has Harris with a slim one-point lead over Trump, but the demographic breakdown is telling: Harris leads with Hispanic voters 61 to 35 percent and Black voters 81 to 12 percent. However, Trump carries white voters 60 to 38 percent. For context, Mike Dukakis had better numbers among white voters against George H.W. Bush in 1988. (The white electorate was smaller then.)

Obama’s white voter support dropped from 43 percent against McCain to 39 percent against Romney. If Trump lost comparable ground among white voters, this nightmare would be over.

This goes beyond rigid partisanship — Republicans just flat out love Trump. Consider that his primary challengers earlier this year were major players, not the Republican equivalents to Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson. And those challengers had fully embraced almost all the MAGA positions except perhaps for Trump’s obsession with the big lie.

Still, Trump, while under criminal indictment, soundly defeated Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, once lauded as Trump without the baggage. In fact, primary exit polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina revealed that GOP voters actually like his baggage. The majority claimed Trump “shared their values,” and it wasn’t as if they were uninformed about his criminal charges. They just didn’t care, with an overwhelming majority in both states saying they still considered him fit to serve even if convicted of a crime.

If Harris wins, it’s because just enough voters accept the rule of law and reality itself. That’s probably why we remain so nervous about the outcome. The election won’t merely determine the next president. It’ll define who we are as a nation."
 
nycfan said:


Is that a good thing?
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Also, remember what Plouffe said -- they've been testing to see who is well suited to reach which audience. ICP hits a group that is really, really, really hard to reach by other means, except possible ads on Faygo soda whatever the fuck that is.

It's not a coincidence that the Daily Show is doing this piece right now. I'd say it's highly likely that the Harris campaign is out there steering stories to news outlets, including the Daily Show. Note that the piece barely poked fun at the juggalos, which is a change from the usual tone of a TDS piece on them. Mostly it highlighted that the juggalos, though disaffected from politics, are ideologically progressive.
 
rodoheel said:
This does not make me feel better at all, personally. Carville is a dinosaur.
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Carville is still sharp and he's still very well-connected. Granted, most of the points he made were boilerplate and not any kind of inside info, but they were good points. He's definitely not one to sugarcoat things, if he wasn't feeling confident I don't think he'd come out that strongly. He might still say something like "well, it's tight but we're still in this thing" or something along those lines, but he wouldn't have written what he did. Of course he could still be wrong, but a guy who is known for calling it like he sees it coming out that strongly does make me feel better...
 
hedge said:
Carville is still sharp and he's still very well-connected. Granted, most of the points he made were boilerplate and not any kind of inside info, but they were good points. He's definitely not one to sugarcoat things, if he wasn't feeling confident I don't think he'd come out that strongly. He might still say something like "well, it's tight but we're still in this thing" or something along those lines, but he wouldn't have written what he did. Of course he could still be wrong, but a guy who is known for calling it like he sees it coming out that strongly does make me feel better...
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I don't doubt that he's confident, I just don't think that his confidence means anything or should independently inspire confidence in anyone else.
 
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