I feel…better. Not great, by any means. But better. Not sure if it’s the time spent on the Hopium thread or not, but I have a sudden uptick in optimism.
It's not hopium. Trump is falling apart. His primary surrogate is promising temporary hardship (Mondale is like, "and they killed me just for saying I was going to raise taxes a bit). His #2 surrogate is talking about getting rid of vaccines. Trump has pissed off the PR community in a big way, and who knows how many other minorities.
Trump has no ground game at all, except in AZ. So if you want to measure the value of a ground game, look at AZ's turnout to other states'. Yes, it matters. And we have it.
Dems have big leads in early voting in most places. While that doesn't necessarily mean a lot, by now it means something. Especially since Trump is melting down. Undecided voters are breaking toward Kamala and expect that to continue. Nobody is looking at the garbage truck and thinking, "I've finally decided to vote for that guy." Threatening Liz Cheney was also a big misstep -- especially when taken in conjunction with his "I protect women, whether they like it or not" comments.
The economy is improving. Inflation is low and employment is high. Even if people don't really understand inflation, most people are comfortable with their finances. Do they really want to hand over the country to a guy in a garbage truck talking about how they do sex change operations at schools? To the guy promising to hand over the government to a POS who is saying it will cause hardship.
His campaign, which has previously at least somewhat resembled a political campaign, is now more traveling circus than anything else.
I've never put too much stock in rally size, but it's a really bad sign when you're holding a rally and everyone is bored and the arena is dead and people are leaving early. The enthusiasm gap is unimaginable.
I think it's as likely to be a Kamala blowout than a Kamala loss, and I'm not really a hopium kind of guy. There just aren't that many things going right for Trump. He's further behind in Michigan than Kamala is in NC, and If Kamala wins both states, it's going to be really hard for Trump to win the election. Even if he gets PA (unlikely in this scenario), she would only need to win AZ, GA, or NV. If Kamala doesn't win NC, she's still leading in all the states she needs to win.
Lost in the noise about PR was playing Dixie as Donalds took the stage. I hope that is being blasted to black voters. As far as I know, which isn't all that much, that's second only to the n-word in terms of racial insults.
Think about it this way: if you're Trump, what can you point to as optimism? Basically, he can only win if the polls are biased against him AGAIN, AND his turnout operation is good enough. But it's not likely that the polls are biased against him. Not now. Not after all these years.
