mynameisbond
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Well, I WAS undecided before. But NOW....
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2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024
- Thread starter nycfan
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- Politics
Well, I WAS undecided before. But NOW....
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Or merely encourage his parishioners to assault them.
superrific
Legend of ZZL
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It's not hopium. Trump is falling apart. His primary surrogate is promising temporary hardship (Mondale is like, "and they killed me just for saying I was going to raise taxes a bit). His #2 surrogate is talking about getting rid of vaccines. Trump has pissed off the PR community in a big way, and who knows how many other minorities.
Trump has no ground game at all, except in AZ. So if you want to measure the value of a ground game, look at AZ's turnout to other states'. Yes, it matters. And we have it.
Dems have big leads in early voting in most places. While that doesn't necessarily mean a lot, by now it means something. Especially since Trump is melting down. Undecided voters are breaking toward Kamala and expect that to continue. Nobody is looking at the garbage truck and thinking, "I've finally decided to vote for that guy." Threatening Liz Cheney was also a big misstep -- especially when taken in conjunction with his "I protect women, whether they like it or not" comments.
The economy is improving. Inflation is low and employment is high. Even if people don't really understand inflation, most people are comfortable with their finances. Do they really want to hand over the country to a guy in a garbage truck talking about how they do sex change operations at schools? To the guy promising to hand over the government to a POS who is saying it will cause hardship.
His campaign, which has previously at least somewhat resembled a political campaign, is now more traveling circus than anything else.
I've never put too much stock in rally size, but it's a really bad sign when you're holding a rally and everyone is bored and the arena is dead and people are leaving early. The enthusiasm gap is unimaginable.
I think it's as likely to be a Kamala blowout than a Kamala loss, and I'm not really a hopium kind of guy. There just aren't that many things going right for Trump. He's further behind in Michigan than Kamala is in NC, and If Kamala wins both states, it's going to be really hard for Trump to win the election. Even if he gets PA (unlikely in this scenario), she would only need to win AZ, GA, or NV. If Kamala doesn't win NC, she's still leading in all the states she needs to win.
Lost in the noise about PR was playing Dixie as Donalds took the stage. I hope that is being blasted to black voters. As far as I know, which isn't all that much, that's second only to the n-word in terms of racial insults.
Think about it this way: if you're Trump, what can you point to as optimism? Basically, he can only win if the polls are biased against him AGAIN, AND his turnout operation is good enough. But it's not likely that the polls are biased against him. Not now. Not after all these years.
dukeman92
Iconic Member
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She's as bad as Jason Whitlock
CFordUNC
Inconceivable Member
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What I'm personally most excited for after Trump loses is more revelation about the assassination attempt in Butler, PA. There is way too much that still doesn't add up there. No medical reports released, Trump's ear was magically intact mere days after supposedly being hit by an AR-15 round from 150 yards, the director of the Secret Service resigned and Republicans immediately quit screaming about it and totally dropped it (when have they ever shut the fuck up about anything?), etc. Oh, and we are supposed to believe that the same 80-year-old man who got his ass kicked by a garbage truck door handle was able to almost immediately jump to his feet and raise his fist and scream "fight! fight! fight!" mere seconds after supposedly being stunned from a hit by an AR-15 round at 150 yards? And that Trump, having just been supposedly hit in the head by an AR-15 round, knew within miliseconds that it was totally safe to pop his head and torso back up in clear sight of a follow-up shot. And the Secret Service allowed him to be further exposed for critical moments following the "hit"?
mynameisbond
Distinguished Member
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- 419
First thing I thought of after seeing him immediately rise to take advantage of the photo op was "false flag". I doubt that can ever be proven, any more than the Kennedy assassination conspiracies can. The shooter ain't talkin'.
CFordUNC
Inconceivable Member
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(From Rick Wilson) Here’s my scientific and unscientific mosaic of reasons I think Kamala Harris is our next President.
- Early Voter Turnout: Women are close to 60% of the turnout in early voting, including a measurable cohort of newly registered Democratic women (I wonder what could have caused this, and does it rhyme with “Woe vs Fade”?) are showing up in large numbers.
Harris looks to be overperforming in suburban and college-educated areas in early voting and polling—she’s winning now among college-educated white men—which are crucial in swing states. This demographic shift could offset any gains Trump might have in rural areas, thereby tilting the balance in Harris's favor.
- Enthusiasm and Motivation: Who can fill the hall? Simple question. Trump is struggling to get the “Front Row Joes” to show up at his ever-shrinking venues, where Harris put 75,000 people on the National Mall in a few day’s notice.
Harris's supporters are measurably more enthusiastic. It’s not everything…but it’s a lot.
- Net Favorability: Harris and Walz have higher positive net favorability ratings than Trump and Vance, which historically has been a strong indicator of electoral success.
People tuning in late — and about 20% of the electorate just started paying attention at all in the last 10 days — are seeing a confident Harris and her avuncular sidekick Walz posting up against Trump and Vance.
Vance’s unfavorability is through the roof, proving that being the fair-haired boy of Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the rest of the Silicon Broligarchy doesn’t universally translate.
- Ground Game Advantage: The Democratic Party's get-out-the-vote (GoTV) efforts are significantly more robust than the GOP's outsourced Charlie Kirk/Elon Musk nonsense.
Elon will be so mad when he figures out he was hoodwinked by a claque of the worst of the worst.
- It Pays To Be A Winner
Ask yourself this fundamental question: which campaign is making the most mistakes? Harris has a campaign with money, a plan, a message, and a stellar candidate. Small speedbumps — Biden’s “garbage” micro-gaffe, for instance — don’t derail the campaign. They run like winners.
Trump’s campaign is angry, desperate, sniffing the wind for an opportunity to change the game in the last play. His Madison Square Garden rally was a final reset that flopped dramatically. He knows his magic is faded for all but his dedicated core, and he’s not winning over new customers.
The Puerto Rico “garbage” mega-gaffe was compounded yesterday by the garbage truck prank, which backfired spectacularly today as Puerto Ricans took it as another insult.
His consultants will start blamestorming in the press on Tuesday, leaking stories like, “If only they’d listened to me.”
- She Won The Culture
Celebrities alone don’t win elections, but Harris has a list of name-brand backers reaching hundreds of millions on their social accounts. They’ve managed to push her image, presence, and message into countless phones. From Taylor Swift to LeBron James to J. Lo to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the constellation of people who can amplify her message is peerless.
Hulk Hogan? Not so much.
- The Economy Is Booming
This is the background noise that has made Trump’s campaign less and less convincing, particularly for Republicans not in the MAGA bubble.
Centerpiece
Iconic Member
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- 2,249
All of this. And if the Pubs at the State level or in Congress, or even at SCOTUS level try and put their thumbs on the scale for trump, throwing it his way… then we truly would have a stolen election. Some weird shenanigans.(From Rick Wilson) Here’s my scientific and unscientific mosaic of reasons I think Kamala Harris is our next President.
- Early Voter Turnout: Women are close to 60% of the turnout in early voting, including a measurable cohort of newly registered Democratic women (I wonder what could have caused this, and does it rhyme with “Woe vs Fade”?) are showing up in large numbers.
Harris looks to be overperforming in suburban and college-educated areas in early voting and polling—she’s winning now among college-educated white men—which are crucial in swing states. This demographic shift could offset any gains Trump might have in rural areas, thereby tilting the balance in Harris's favor.
- Enthusiasm and Motivation: Who can fill the hall? Simple question. Trump is struggling to get the “Front Row Joes” to show up at his ever-shrinking venues, where Harris put 75,000 people on the National Mall in a few day’s notice.
Harris's supporters are measurably more enthusiastic. It’s not everything…but it’s a lot.
- Net Favorability: Harris and Walz have higher positive net favorability ratings than Trump and Vance, which historically has been a strong indicator of electoral success.
People tuning in late — and about 20% of the electorate just started paying attention at all in the last 10 days — are seeing a confident Harris and her avuncular sidekick Walz posting up against Trump and Vance.
Vance’s unfavorability is through the roof, proving that being the fair-haired boy of Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the rest of the Silicon Broligarchy doesn’t universally translate.
- Ground Game Advantage: The Democratic Party's get-out-the-vote (GoTV) efforts are significantly more robust than the GOP's outsourced Charlie Kirk/Elon Musk nonsense.
Elon will be so mad when he figures out he was hoodwinked by a claque of the worst of the worst.
- It Pays To Be A Winner
Ask yourself this fundamental question: which campaign is making the most mistakes? Harris has a campaign with money, a plan, a message, and a stellar candidate. Small speedbumps — Biden’s “garbage” micro-gaffe, for instance — don’t derail the campaign. They run like winners.
Trump’s campaign is angry, desperate, sniffing the wind for an opportunity to change the game in the last play. His Madison Square Garden rally was a final reset that flopped dramatically. He knows his magic is faded for all but his dedicated core, and he’s not winning over new customers.
The Puerto Rico “garbage” mega-gaffe was compounded yesterday by the garbage truck prank, which backfired spectacularly today as Puerto Ricans took it as another insult.
His consultants will start blamestorming in the press on Tuesday, leaking stories like, “If only they’d listened to me.”
- She Won The Culture
Celebrities alone don’t win elections, but Harris has a list of name-brand backers reaching hundreds of millions on their social accounts. They’ve managed to push her image, presence, and message into countless phones. From Taylor Swift to LeBron James to J. Lo to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the constellation of people who can amplify her message is peerless.
Hulk Hogan? Not so much.
- The Economy Is Booming
This is the background noise that has made Trump’s campaign less and less convincing, particularly for Republicans not in the MAGA bubble.
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Someone from the Secret Service would need to talk.
SnoopRob
Inconceivable Member
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- 2,902
There's a large Trump sign (maybe 4' x 6') on my way home from work that someone recently spray painted the "anarchy A" symbol on both sides.
I wasn't sure if they are protesting the sign or stating agreement, but either way I laughed.
1moretimeagain
Iconic Member
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- 1,675
Close to squabbling
“What the hell is he going to say? He’s losing? Fact of the matter is David can’t do anything but bullshit until Tuesday because we are kicking his ass. The only thing the Harris campaign has functional at this point is a bullshit machine that is dutifully repeated by the legacy media as if fact.”
“What the hell is he going to say? He’s losing? Fact of the matter is David can’t do anything but bullshit until Tuesday because we are kicking his ass. The only thing the Harris campaign has functional at this point is a bullshit machine that is dutifully repeated by the legacy media as if fact.”
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CFordUNC
Inconceivable Member
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Lololololol Chris knows his ass is cooked.
SnoopRob
Inconceivable Member
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I'm sorry, but this is hilarious.
Both that we should care about who Sexyy Red votes for and that she ended up changing her mind from Trump to Kamala.
ChapelHillSooner
Honored Member
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- 893
Assuming Harris wins...
I'm mostly excited to watch DJT stock crater and basically watching Trump self destruct. I just hope it is only Trump and not our country self destructing.
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Don’t assume. You know what happens when you assume. You make a Trump out of U-M-E.
Duke Mu
Iconic Member
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Do I hear a 500%? 600%?