2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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My subjective estimate of the current state of the race is Kamala with a 60-75% chance of winning. That's not showing up in the poll just yet (though the polls are now showing something like a dead heat), but Kamala has many advantages. First, enthusiasm. Second, a huge flood of cash and more where that came from, since the Dem small donors haven't been maxing out on subsidizing the candidate's legal problems. Third, there's still a convention. Fourth, she's not well known and has a lot more upside than Trump.

Just my own feeling about the race.
 
The Four Seasons Landscaping fiasco has its own wikipedia page. This paragraph is sums it up nicely:

The site of the press conference, a local landscaping business, was unexpected. Many journalists and others quickly observed a comical aspect to its location, near a sex shop and a crematorium. This site selection led to speculation that the Trump campaign meant to book the upscale Four Seasons Hotel Philadelphia, five city blocks from the Pennsylvania Convention Center, where Philadelphia's ballots were being counted. Shortly after Giuliani began talking to the assembled reporters, the Associated Press projected Biden as the winner of the Pennsylvania vote and thus the nationwide election. Several news outlets characterized the event as the symbolic end of Trump's presidency.
 
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Assuming our democracy survives the Trump era, that was without a doubt the funniest WTF moment of the last 9 years.
Assuming that Trump loses and MAGA Nation gradually fades into the mists of history (like Huey Long and his Share Our Wealth nationwide clubs) I have no doubt that historians fifty years from now will mention Rudy's epically disastrous press conference as one of the symbolic moments of the entire MAGA movement. Although other events like January 6 were obviously more important and will receive a good deal of space, Rudy's conference will at least get a mention in the history books somewhere. And what's amazing is that for many people in the future the only thing they may see about Rudy will not be his tenure as NYC's Mayor and his handling of the 9/11 attack that brought media praise and being named TIME Magazine's "Man of the Year", but instead his Four Seasons press conference with his shoe polish hair dye rolling off his face like sweat. And people seeing that will think, "what a weird little dude, how the hell did he ever become famous."
 
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Assuming that Trump loses and MAGA Nation gradually fades into the mists of history (like Huey Long and his Share Our Wealth nationwide clubs) I have no doubt that historians fifty years from now will mention Rudy's epically disastrous press conference as one of the symbolic moments of the entire MAGA movement. Although other events like January 6 were obviously more important and will receive a good deal of space, Rudy's conference will at least get a mention in the history books somewhere. And what's amazing is that for many people in the future the only thing they may see about Rudy will not be his tenure as NYC's Mayor and his handling of the 9/11 attack that brought media praise and being named TIME Magazine's "Man of the Year", but instead his Four Seasons press conference with his shoe polish hair dye rolling off his face like sweat. And people seeing that will think, "what a weird little dude, how the hell did he ever become famous."
In a way it’s sad because he did some good things. Hell, there was even a time (NOT in the last 10-12 years) that I would have considered supporting him for higher office. But he ended up being a joke and that’s his own fault.
 
Kamala's new ad regarding border/immigration. This is brilliant.

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