2025 & 2026 Elections

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I don't care how we win, as long as we do. If we oust Tillis because the unengaged MAGA don't vote, fine with me. Worry about 2028 in 2027.

If history is a guide, a Dem cleanup in the House and Senate might presage a huge result in the next presidential election, as in 2006.

But in reality, presidential elections are really about the economy and if we spend Trump's years in a recession that will be the dominant factor anyway. Although if you combine turnout proclivity with economic disaster, you have the recipe for an epic landslide.
 
nycfan said:
This was expected to be an easy GOP win (to replace Waltz).
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It might well be one. My subjective sense of polls showing big underdogs being surprisingly competitive is that they are mostly fools' gold. Whether it was Jamie Harrison in SC, or the guy running for Senate in NE (Osborn?), or the Selzer fiasco in Iowa . . . none of those outcomes were even close and I have a sense that there are many more like it. Texas is another example.

But it would be sweet to pick up this seat if possible.
 
There's definitely something happening at the grassroots across the country, even in red districts like the one in Florida. Stefanik represents a district that is normally about 60 to 40 Republican, and if the WH is worried about losing her seat in a special election that's a clear sign of what's happening. Having said that, the ugly truth is that most of these districts are so heavily gerrymandered that even with a grassroots revolt it's still unlikely that Republicans will lose most of these seats, although they'll likely be much closer than normal. The race I'm curious about is the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race. If the Democrats can win that seat after Musk and other Republicans have put so much money into the race then that is probably a good sign for state elections later this year in places like Virginia, and perhaps for next year's midterms. If they lose, then it will show that GOP enthusiasm for Trump is still running strong among his base.

 

Elon Musk Backtracks on a Legally Questionable Plan to Pay Voters​

Experts had said that his pledge to hand out two $1 million checks to people who had already voted in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race seemed to run afoul of state law.

www.nytimes.com

Elon Musk Backtracks on Plan to Give $2 Million Checks to Wisconsin Voters

Experts had said that his pledge to hand out two $1 million checks to people who had already voted in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race seemed to run afoul of state law.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

“… Early Friday, Mr. Musk took it a big step further: He told his 219 million followers on X that when he visited Wisconsin on Sunday, he would hand out two $1 million checks to people who had already voted in the election “in appreciation for you taking the time to vote.”

The offer was open only to those who had already voted, he said.

But later on Friday, Mr. Musk quietly deleted his post on X.

About 12 hours after that initial post, he said he had to “clarify a previous post.” He wrote that “entrance is limited to those who have signed the petition in opposition to activist judges,” adding, “I will also hand over checks for a million dollars to 2 people to be spokesmen for the petition.” …”
 


“… Just days before two special elections to fill House seats in Florida, along with a closely watched state supreme court race in Wisconsin, Trump said he couldn’t risk losing the vote of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R., N.Y.), who had been poised to start as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations as soon as next week. The reversal marked an extraordinary admission by Trump, and it brought home the brittle nature of Republicans’ power on Capitol Hill as they work to advance his legislative agenda.

… While Republicans expect to prevail in Tuesday’s House contests and say they probably would have won Stefanik’s seat, their jitters are among the first outward signs of caution about how voters view Trump’s first months in his second term.

… In the House, GOP officials have harbored special concerns over the race to fill former Rep. Mike Waltz’s seat in the Daytona Beach, Fla., area, which he won by more than 30 points in November before resigning to serve as Trump’s national security adviser. Waltz is now at the center of a scandal over a Signal chat between top Trump officials planning an attack in Yemen that ended up in the pages of Atlantic magazine.

… Recent polling in the district, conducted by Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio, showed GOP candidate Randy Fine trailing his deep-pocketed Democratic challenger by three points. …”
 
nycfan said:
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I felt pretty good about this race until I started seeing the eye-popping numbers of the voting increases in Republican counties in Wisconsin. That's not a good sign, I would think, unless a good number of these Republicans are mad about all the chaos in DC and job cuts and trade wars and so on. And somehow I doubt that's the case.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I felt pretty good about this race until I started seeing the eye-popping numbers of the increases in Republican counties in Wisconsin. That's not a good sign, I would think, unless a good number of these Republicans are mad about all the chaos in DC and job cuts and trade wars and so on. And somehow I doubt that's the case.
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Eh, there are increases across the board. Milwaukee is up 46% in early ballots compared to two years ago. WOW counties are up like 50% or 60% from two years ago. But the Dem won by 10 points in 2023. So the Pubs have a lot of catching up to do with respect to 2023. It's going to take more than modestly higher increases in voting in a few Pub counties. Dane County is also way up in early ballots.

I think the Dem has to be considered a solid favorite at this point.
 
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