2025 & 2026 Elections

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Talarico is running for Cornyn’s seat. His declaration video feels hackneyed as hell, but his message is right. I don’t think Allred nor Castro can come across authentically enough in this populist moment. Orourke might, but I hope not - his moment feels lost. I suspect name recognition and big money donors overwhelm Talarico, in the end, but I’m interested to see how the messaging unfolds.

 
Healing said:
Talarico is running for Cornyn’s seat. His declaration video feels hackneyed as hell, but his message is right. I don’t think Allred nor Castro can come across authentically enough in this populist moment. Orourke might, but I hope not - his moment feels lost. I suspect name recognition and big money donors overwhelm Talarico, in the end, but I’m interested to see how the messaging unfolds.

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I don't have much in the way of factual evidence, but I get the sense that Democrats are very frustrated and angry at the status quo and are looking for something different, and candidates who can clearly differentiate themselves from the "same old, same old" type of centrist, establishment Democratic pols could do very well in Democratic primaries across the country, even in some red states (whether they can win the general election is an entirely different issue, of course). Mamdani in NYC is a good example. If Talarico is clever and resourceful and savvy enough to illustrate how his opponents are just representing the status quo and he isn't, and he's willing to stand up to Trump in a very vocal and aggressive way, then he might have a good chance of winning the nomination in the current political climate, as I think that message would be very appealing to a lot of Democrats right now. Whether he could win the general election in Texas (or any of these candidates could) is a separate issue.
 


His popularity has waned since the 2024 election and people thought he might not run again.
 


Crowded Dem field — wonder if he has any chance of winning a Dem nomination? I assume electability and his opposition to Trump’s interference in the 2020 election will be his calling cards(??)
 

Donna Brazile: Eleanor Holmes Norton should not run for reelection​

She has been like a second mother to me. But she is 88. D.C. needs a new champion.


"... Norton should follow the example of other older elected officials who have retired after many years of service. Heading into the 2026 elections, retiring Democratic House members include Jerry Nadler of New York, who is 78; Lloyd Doggett of Texas, 78; Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, 81; and Danny K. Davis of Illinois, 84. Senators retiring next year include Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, 78; Democratic Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois, 80; and former Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, 83.

All these lawmakers, as well as former president Joe Biden, are younger than Norton.

After doing so much for D.C. for so long, it’s understandable that she wants to remain in Congress. Public service is her life. But no job can last forever, and no person is irreplaceable. As I’ve told her in person, retirement from Congress is the right next chapter for her — and for the District."

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Dems unleash House primary challenges in war on gerontocracy​

Frustration with the status quo is fueling an intra-party struggle in California.


"... While similar challenges are unfolding in blue bastions like Massachusetts and Maryland, the same-party struggle is especially striking in California, a Democratic stronghold where a culture of hierarchical deference is cracking under the weight of pervasive dissatisfaction with politicians who have been in office for decades. Even in resolutely blue San Francisco, Democrats pushed to impose age limits.

“The way this country has now moved into pretty dangerous territory, with all the hallmarks and characteristic of an autocracy — you’ve just got to think the leaders who have led us to this moment are probably not the ones who are going to help get us out of it,” said Jake Levine, one of multiple Democrats challenging Rep. Brad Sherman, a 70-year-old, 15-term incumbent in Los Angeles. ..."

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Meanwhile, Gen X is like:

Ignoring Me Schitts Creek GIF by CBC
 
nycfan said:
Great reference

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Interesting but keep in mind these are still modeled projections of some kind, since nobody knows how anyone voted other than exit polls and other self reporting, which are unscientific and small in sample. Who anyone actually voted for is not public record.

Demographics are available, and registration and turnout numbers are available publicly, but there’s no surefire way to link those to actual votes for this candidate or that candidate.

Looks like this guy’s a data science grad student at Harvard, I’m guessing there’s reasonable methodology behind it but either way he is right to use the term “estimate.” Especially since pollsters have been getting so much wrong lately.
 
duluoz said:
Interesting but keep in mind these are still modeled projections of some kind, since nobody knows how anyone voted other than exit polls and other self reporting, which are unscientific and small in sample. Who anyone actually voted for is not public record.

Demographics are available, and registration and turnout numbers are available publicly, but there’s no surefire way to link those to actual votes for this candidate or that candidate.

Looks like this guy’s a data science grad student at Harvard, I’m guessing there’s reasonable methodology behind it but either way he is right to use the term “estimate.” Especially since pollsters have been getting so much wrong lately.
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There are social media posts that can be linked to individuals. While it's still an estimate, I think it's fair to say that people tweeting how Kamala is the devil were not voting for her.
 
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