2026 Midterm Elections

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Paine said:
Makes sense. In the Times today, Ben Hoffman called Crockett the “progressive” and Talarico the “moderate.”

It’s been discussed a bit here, but I think that framing misses a lot of nuance in the race. If you have DSA types like myself supporting Talarico over Crockett, it’s pretty clear there’s more to him than just being “moderate.”
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Yes, I agree. "Moderate" does a better job characterizing Talarico in comparison to Crockett temperamentally, but not really politically.
 
Paine said:
Makes sense. In the Times today, Ben Hoffman called Crockett the “progressive” and Talarico the “moderate.”

It’s been discussed a bit here, but I think that framing misses a lot of nuance in the race. If you have DSA types like myself supporting Talarico over Crockett, it’s pretty clear there’s more to him than just being “moderate.”
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I know you know this and probably agree with it, but these things are super state-specific. Talarico would be a fucking disaster in Oregon. Crockett would be the obvious choice in Maryland. But in Texas, I can't help but think Talarico is the best possible option, by several orders of magnitude. That's not a knock on Crockett. If anything, it's a knock on Texas. But more than anything, it's just a recognition that the candidate has to fit the state.

I still think Talarico's odds should be less than 40%. But almost anyone else would be less than 20%, so I'll take Talarico in a heartbeat.
 
Paine said:
Makes sense. In the Times today, Ben Hoffman called Crockett the “progressive” and Talarico the “moderate.”

It’s been discussed a bit here, but I think that framing misses a lot of nuance in the race. If you have DSA types like myself supporting Talarico over Crockett, it’s pretty clear there’s more to him than just being “moderate.”
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Crockett is not more progressive. She is sassier. Not the same thing.
 
rodoheel said:
The only pushback I'd have to your last sentence is that we would have to be very careful extrapolating anything from Maine's experience out into the wider US. Maine is a somewhat singular place (well, it has some similarities to VT and NH too, but really those three together are a fairly singular region). Maine is one of the smallest, least racially diverse, and oldest states out there.

All that is to say: whatever version of "left populism" works in Maine, may not be easily adaptable to the rest of the country, especially other swing states in places like the Sun Belt and Rust Belt.
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That’s a good counterpoint to my remarks but that demographic homogeneity (overwhelmingly white) of Mainers is a core element of my thesis.

The bleeding of wwc voters from the Democratic coalition is the essential source of its electoral diminution. Once the Black and Latino blocs started to peel off too, DNC electoral prospects hit rock bottom.

The trend in Maine suggests that the Democratic Party can once again be seen as the “party of the working class” rather than the siren’s song of MAGA.

That shift combined with the recognition by Black and Brown voters that MAGA was always predicated on the foundation of white supremacy leaves me hopeful for meaningful change. The revival of the Democratic Party offers the potential for the achievement of New Deal ambitions.

Ultimately though we can’t be sure if change within the DNC is real or performative.
 
Paine said:
The level of your political analyst never fails to impress.
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1. True.

2. Let's not completely dismiss the comparison. I can't stand MTG's politics, but she's showing a million times more integrity and courage in her political convictions than pretty much any other Republican -- Vance, Rubio, Cruz, Graham, Ramrouser, etc. I could see Crockett as someone similarly wedded to her courage and convictions, the difference being that hers are well placed.
 
lawtig02 said:
1. True.

2. Let's not completely dismiss the comparison. I can't stand MTG's politics, but she's showing a million times more integrity and courage in her political convictions than pretty much any other Republican -- Vance, Rubio, Cruz, Graham, Ramrouser, etc. I could see Crockett as someone similarly wedded to her courage and convictions, the difference being that hers are well placed.
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I can understand the comparison at surface level (both are good at seeking and getting attention) but the comparison ends there. MTG believes in QAnon and Jewish Space Lasers and that kind of stuff. The main reason she has broken with the party is over Epstein, which she got into through QAnon, not because she has much in the way of real convictions. She's a complete dingbat.
 
It looks like GQPer Senate candidates really don't want Crockett to win the Dem primary tomorrow night

www.rawstory.com

Republican meddling rocks Senate Democratic primary in final days

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is closing with a fierce debate that has animated it from the start: Who would Republicans rather face in November?The leading candidates, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, have each pitched voters on the idea...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
 
heelinhell said:
It looks like GQPer Senate candidates really don't want Crockett to win the Dem primary tomorrow night

www.rawstory.com

Republican meddling rocks Senate Democratic primary in final days

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is closing with a fierce debate that has animated it from the start: Who would Republicans rather face in November?The leading candidates, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, have each pitched voters on the idea...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
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Article says the opposite, doesn’t it? GOP meddling to boost Crockett. They want a Cornyn v Crockett race and fear a Talarico v Paxton race.
 
heelinhell said:
It looks like GQPer Senate candidates really don't want Crockett to win the Dem primary tomorrow night

www.rawstory.com

Republican meddling rocks Senate Democratic primary in final days

The Democratic primary for U.S. Senate is closing with a fierce debate that has animated it from the start: Who would Republicans rather face in November?The leading candidates, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, have each pitched voters on the idea...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
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The opposite. The GOP wants Crockett, who will almost certainly be easier to beat.
 
rodoheel said:
The opposite. The GOP wants Crockett, who will almost certainly be easier to beat.
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“Not our kind of Texan”

“They always want a handout from you, the hard working American family.”

“She will open the spillway for cheaply built apartments to flood your community.”

“She is black.”
 
heelinhell said:
May be so but how does the GQP boosting Crockett help her win tomorrow night ?
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They’ve been running ads saying that Crockett supports Democratic priorities like abolishing ICE. Since this is a pretty popular position among D primary voters, they’re hoping that broadcasting that will make more Ds vote for her.

Dems have pulled similar tactics out in R primaries. It would be something like a Dem group running an ad in Texas saying that Cornyn is not conservative enough.
 
Paine said:
Paine said:
They’ve been running ads saying that Crockett supports Democratic priorities like abolishing ICE. Since this is a pretty popular position among D primary voters, they’re hoping that broadcasting that will make more Ds vote for her.

Dems have pulled similar tactics out in R primaries. It would be something like a Dem group running an ad in Texas saying that Cornyn is not conservative enough.
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That makes sense. I did not not realize that GQPers were running ads to encourage Dems to vote for Crockett. It will be interesting to see if that strategy works tomorrow night.
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The tactic has been a mixed bag for Dems at least. Famously did not work out for the Clinton campaign when they boosted Trump in the 2016 primary, but there has been success in promoting crazy R senate candidates
 
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