Talerico can beat Cornyn too, depending on the national environment.
Remember 1994 and 2010. Things looked bad for the Dems this time of year. They were predicting big losses.
And it was worse than expected. Their position kept deteriorating. Trump is currently doing everything he can to undermine the GOP's midterm success. I think we are getting closer to a MAGA ideology collapse. Once MAGAs fully figure out that there was never anything there but Trump's ego, and they start to feel the consequences (i.e. inflation, wars, etc), they could turn on him like MTG.