2026 Midterm Elections

[UNCBAdookJD]

I know there are no moral victories in politics, but that District shift 21 points toward D is Huuuuuge.

 

[Calheel]

I know there are no moral victories in politics, but that District shift 21 points toward D is Huuuuuge.

The 8 points difference was not final. The final numbers will be around 15 points. So still a shift toward democrats, but not as big as the initial returns would have suggested.

 

[superrific]

The 8 points difference was not final. The final numbers will be around 15 points. So still a shift toward democrats, but not as big as the initial returns would have suggested.

12 points. It was 29 I think last year.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Mulberry Heel]

We'll see if this pattern continues across the country, but if Democrats keep doing this well in deep-red districts then there will be a blue tsunami across the country in the US House and some state legislatures. But it's all still a big "if".

 

[BillOfRights]

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

The key in November is the Senate. Obviously local & state races are important, and the House is almost a given at this point, but we need flips in 4-5 key red-leaning states to get Congress as a whole back with the good guys.

 

[aGDevil2k]

This is the Democrat chance to fully focus on people and cost of living and go back to being the true champions of anything but the super rich. It's right there for the taking if they focus on that

 

[BillOfRights]

The key in November is the Senate. Obviously local & state races are important, and the House is almost a given at this point, but we need flips in 4-5 key red-leaning states to get Congress as a whole back with the good guys.

Have to hold GA and MI.

Have to flip 4. Dems have a decent chance in NC and ME. With a blue wave AK and OH are possible. Long shots are IA, TX, NE, FL.

 

[altmin]

This is the Democrat chance to fully focus on people and cost of living and go back to being the true champions of anything but the super rich. It's right there for the taking if they focus on that

Then I fully expect to DNC to make their platform: "Let's ban pickup trucks" or something similarly stupid.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Then I fully expect to DNC to make their platform: "Let's ban pickup trucks" or something similarly stupid.

Sad.
But also true.

 

[nycfan]

The thing making Dems nervous is the gap between the generic ballot on the one hand (where Dems generally have a 4-6 point lead over GOP) and the off-year and special election results that have shown Democratic overperformance averaging around 17 points. Those two metrics are usually a lot closer and both parties use a rough average to figure out where to spend their money and efforts in a midterm. Take the average of the generic ballot and the off-year over-performance and any district where the sitting POTUS won by that margin or less is a target (roughly speaking of course, they have all kinds of dynamic scoring and additional data race by race).

The gap between the generic ballot and the off-year overperformance gives the GOP hope of limiting any Dem margin in the House a very narrow one at best based on the former and the Dems hope for a wave big enough to retake the Senate despite odds to the contrary based on the latter. But it makes it tough for both sides to figure out how to allocate resources.

 

[Ddseddse]

The thing making Dems nervous is the gap between the generic ballot on the one hand (where Dems generally have a 4-6 point lead over GOP) and the off-year and special election results that have shown Democratic overperformance averaging around 17 points. Those two metrics are usually a lot closer and both parties use a rough average to figure out where to spend their money and efforts in a midterm. Take the average of the generic ballot and the off-year over-performance and any district where the sitting POTUS won by that margin or less is a target (roughly speaking of course, they have all kinds of dynamic scoring and additional data race by race).

The gap between the generic ballot and the off-year overperformance gives the GOP hope of limiting any Dem margin in the House a very narrow one at best based on the former and the Dems hope for a wave big enough to retake the Senate despite odds to the contrary based on the latter. But it makes it tough for both sides to figure out how to allocate resources.

Maybe wishcasting, but that gap could be explained by sample bias of people who answer polls vs. who shows up to actually vote.

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

Then I fully expect to DNC to make their platform: "Let's ban pickup trucks" or something similarly stupid.

With a Haitian trans, bisexual, who is here on a student visa pursuing a degree in sculpting, as the spokesperson.

 

[heelinhell]

Maybe wishcasting, but that gap could be explained by sample bias of people who answer polls vs. who shows up to actually vote.

I think there may be some truth to that. I keep reading about GQP strategists complaining that their voters don't seem to be as interested in turning out for off year/special elections compared to past years.

 

[altmin]

With a Haitian trans, bisexual, who is here on a student visa pursuing a degree in sculpting, as the spokesperson.

 

[altoheel]

With a Haitian trans, bisexual, who is here on a student visa pursuing a degree in sculpting, as the spokesperson.

Let's not do this please. We don't have to opt in to Republican ideas about who is worth listening to.

 

[lawtig02]

Maybe wishcasting, but that gap could be explained by sample bias of people who answer polls vs. who shows up to actually vote.

Yeah, and my guess is that's amplified right now by the huge number of double haters. If you hate everyone and everything, why would you take the time to respond to a poll? But you still might show up on Election Day, and those people are hating the Pubs much more than they hate the Dems right now.

 

[RockyMtnHoo]

Let's not do this please. We don't have to opt in to Republican ideas about who is worth listening to.

It wasn’t intended to minimize any individual/group. More a jab at the DNC for rarely passing up a chance to message poorly when trying to sway moderate or slightly right leaning voters who are fed up with MAGA.