Approval/Disapproval Polls

[lawtig02]

I honestly thought the floor was 35%.

I still think it is, and that’s 3-4 points lower than his first term floor. I wouldn’t focus too much on the 32% polls. He’d still get at least 45% of the popular vote and 250 electoral votes if the election were held today. Enormous swaths of this country do not have access to truthful information.

 

[Calheel]

I still think it is, and that’s 3-4 points lower than his first term floor. I wouldn’t focus too much on the 32% polls. He’d still get at least 45% of the popular vote and 250 electoral votes if the election were held today. Enormous swaths of this country do not have access to truthful information.

But they do have access to gas pumps.

 

[Kingpin]

I honestly thought the floor was 35%.

Was this poll in Mass? If so I would expect lower. Nationally, that would be remarkable

 

[sunnyheel]

Public perceptions of brands rarely stay static. Musicians and actors go in and out of favor with the public. What is cool one day, may be lame the next.

Once a critical mass starts to turn against Trump, it will bring others along for the ride. When MAGA folks see people they like and respect suddenly shit-talking the President on Facebook and X, it gives them a permission structure to do the same. Suddenly, their identity is no longer intertwined with supporting the President. And if that movement gains steam, it can be like a freight train heading down the tracks.

Trump intuitively knows this, and that is why he is trying to figure out a way out of Iran as fast as possible. But if gas prices continue to spike over the Spring, he may enter a death spiral that brings his support into the 20s or even the teens.

This is an astute analysis. MAGA is a movement and mass movements generally have short lifespans. I had relied on this factor to bury trump in the heap pile of history following his loss in ‘20, but Biden’s bumbling presidency combined with a wave of xenophobia and nativism that had yet to crest served to resurrect the movement.

Even assuming Trump is able to taco his way out of Israel’s war, he’ll soon enough find himself back in the Epstein barrel.

So, yes, I am much more optimistic about the path forward because even the dimmest among us have seen the state of the emperor’s clothes.

 

[lawtig02]

This is an astute analysis. MAGA is a movement and mass movements generally have short lifespans. I had relied on this factor to bury trump in the heap pile of history following his loss in ‘20, but Biden’s bumbling presidency combined with a wave of xenophobia and nativism had yet to crest served to resurrect the movement.

Even assuming Trump is able to taco his way out of Israel’s war, he’ll soon enough find himself back in the Epstein barrel.

So, yes, I am much more optimistic about the path forward because even the dimmest among us have seen the state of the emperor’s clothes.

There's one person who could have ended this in 2020. I hope his failure to do so is on his epitaph.