Approval/Disapproval Polls

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nycfan said:
He will get a bounce back as the economy recovers from his trade war shock — IFF he can stick with his capitulation of the last 24 hours. The interesting part will be to what extent the independents credit him with “fixing” something he broke.
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I’m not sure about that. It may bounce back a little but I expect his overall approval rating to hang out around 39-41% for most of the next 3.75 years.
 
nycfan said:
He will get a bounce back as the economy recovers from his trade war shock — IFF he can stick with his capitulation of the last 24 hours. The interesting part will be to what extent the independents credit him with “fixing” something he broke.
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The economy isn't going to recover from his trade war shock even if he does capitulate. For one thing, he's not capitulating fully -- even in his 'play nice" scenario, there are still 10% tariffs everywhere, 25% on other items, supposedly more tariffs coming for pharma etc. But more importantly, the capitulation will be done in a face-saving kind of way, which means it will not be a policy. It will never get predictable.

The irony is that Trump's tariffs are likely to force US manufacturers to relocate abroad instead of the other way around. That's what happens when you try to fight the whole world at once.
 
lawtig02 said:
I’m not sure about that. It may bounce back a little but I expect his overall approval rating to hang out around 39-41% for most of the next 3.75 years.
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Yeah, I don’t know how much a bounce-back he will get, that is what interests me. He had a higher starting baseline to start this term than he
managed at pretty much any time in his first term. What I’m wondering is whether that indicates more willingness among the persuadable voters to give him more leeway and return to supporting him, or if he will revert to his first term range of support.

We know that Biden never recovered among persuadable voters after the suicide bombing of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan… does this self-inflicted economic chaos have the same impact on Trump’s longer term support even if the chaos is truly resolved by capitulation to market demands in the next 2-6 weeks?
 
nycfan said:
Yeah, I don’t know how much a bounce-back he will get, that is what interests me. He had a higher starting baseline to start this term than he
managed at pretty much any time in his first term. What I’m wondering is whether that indicates more willingness among the persuadable voters to give him more leeway and return to supporting him, or if he will revert to his first term range of support.

We know that Biden never recovered among persuadable voters after the suicide bombing of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan… does this self-inflicted economic chaos have the same impact on Trump’s longer term support even if the chaos is truly resolved by capitulation to market demands in the next 2-6 weeks?
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Time will tell, but I think the slightly higher Trump 2.0 baseline was a response to Biden's perceived incompetence more than anything else. Trump 1.0 was coming off one of the best presidential terms in our nation's history, so it's not surprising people were a little more skeptical of him then. But we'll have to see. I think Trump's floor is around 38% because of a combination of American fools and Russian trolls like Silence. But he's losing almost everyone other than his core base at a remarkable pace, and I have a feeling people won't go back to him once they're gone.
 
nycfan said:
Yeah, I don’t know how much a bounce-back he will get, that is what interests me. He had a higher starting baseline to start this term than he
managed at pretty much any time in his first term. What I’m wondering is whether that indicates more willingness among the persuadable voters to give him more leeway and return to supporting him, or if he will revert to his first term range of support.

We know that Biden never recovered among persuadable voters after the suicide bombing of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan… does this self-inflicted economic chaos have the same impact on Trump’s longer term support even if the chaos is truly resolved by capitulation to market demands in the next 2-6 weeks?
Click to expand...
Established narratives don't easily die. Trump has shown himself to be a chaos agent who is completely incompetent and possibly intentionally destructive. And to an extent really unlike everything I've ever witnessed in US politics, he completely owns this clusterfuck. So the narrative is, I think, fully set: Trump is an economic disaster. I would imagine every bit of bad news in the next two years will hang on Trump's head. The question is only how far down will it sink. When will MAGA realize they are getting fucked?

Remember: the tariffs aren't exactly the only thing weighing on the economy. There's the fiscal profligacy in Congress, the DOGE cuts, frozen research money, etc. That's probably all told a couple hundred billion worth of economic activity that has just been ground to a halt.

And the international boycotts/alternative arrangements are probably with us to stay -- definitely here to stay as long as Trump is around.
 
nycfan said:
Yeah, I don’t know how much a bounce-back he will get, that is what interests me. He had a higher starting baseline to start this term than he
managed at pretty much any time in his first term. What I’m wondering is whether that indicates more willingness among the persuadable voters to give him more leeway and return to supporting him, or if he will revert to his first term range of support.

We know that Biden never recovered among persuadable voters after the suicide bombing of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan… does this self-inflicted economic chaos have the same impact on Trump’s longer term support even if the chaos is truly resolved by capitulation to market demands in the next 2-6 weeks?
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For reference/comparison purposes:

IMG_6624.jpeg
 
UNCatTech said:
Who responded to these questions?

I Can see a yes to Democratic party is facing a crisis of leadership. I'd probably answer yes at this point.

Actually there's an argument for the first 5.

But number 6??? Wow, really? No one ever has had such a poor foreign policy as trump how does anyone see the dems as having a similar policy?
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You misread it. 69% disagree with the statement that Democrats aren't so different in foreign policy than trump. That's the same as saying 69% agree that Democrats are different in foreign policy than trump. Not a very well-worded survey question really. Too easy to confuse.
 
superrific said:
The economy isn't going to recover from his trade war shock even if he does capitulate. For one thing, he's not capitulating fully -- even in his 'play nice" scenario, there are still 10% tariffs everywhere, 25% on other items, supposedly more tariffs coming for pharma etc. But more importantly, the capitulation will be done in a face-saving kind of way, which means it will not be a policy. It will never get predictable.

The irony is that Trump's tariffs are likely to force US manufacturers to relocate abroad instead of the other way around. That's what happens when you try to fight the whole world at once.
Click to expand...
And he is still yammering on about taxing via port fees on any goods that travel here on a China built freighter.
 
superrific said:
Established narratives don't easily die. Trump has shown himself to be a chaos agent who is completely incompetent and possibly intentionally destructive. And to an extent really unlike everything I've ever witnessed in US politics, he completely owns this clusterfuck. So the narrative is, I think, fully set: Trump is an economic disaster. I would imagine every bit of bad news in the next two years will hang on Trump's head. The question is only how far down will it sink. When will MAGA realize they are getting fucked?

Remember: the tariffs aren't exactly the only thing weighing on the economy. There's the fiscal profligacy in Congress, the DOGE cuts, frozen research money, etc. That's probably all told a couple hundred billion worth of economic activity that has just been ground to a halt.

And the international boycotts/alternative arrangements are probably with us to stay -- definitely here to stay as long as Trump is around.
Click to expand...
Agree with all of this. The fallout from tariff madness, mass government firings, canceling of funds for state programs and projects, undermining universities, etc won’t be fully felt for months and importantly, won’t be evenly spread. There are going to be small towns and rural communities that are hit very hard by this BS even if SCOTUS or, less likely, Congress manage to undo much of it.

I think there’s a good chance we could see a handful of House Republicans get successfully primaried from their left.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
You misread it. 69% disagree with the statement that Democrats aren't so different in foreign policy than trump. That's the same as saying 69% agree that Democrats are different in foreign policy than trump. Not a very well-worded survey question really. Too easy to confuse.
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Well yes I did.
 
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