“… By September 2022, US intelligence reports deemed “exquisite” revealed a “deeply unnerving assessment” of Putin — that he was so desperate about battlefield losses that he might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Based on the alarming new intelligence reports, the White House believed there was a 50% chance Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon — a striking assessment that had skyrocketed up from 5% and then 10%, Woodward reports.
“On all channels, get on the line with the Russians,” Biden instructed his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan. “Tell them what we will do in response,” he said, according to Woodward.
The book recounts a tense phone call between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Russian counterpart in October 2022.
“If you did this, all the restraints that we have been operating under in Ukraine would be reconsidered,” Austin said to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Woodward. “This would isolate Russia on the world stage to a degree you Russians cannot fully appreciate.”
“I don’t take kindly to being threatened,” Shoigu responded.
“Mr. Minister,” Austin said, according to Woodward, “I am the leader of the most powerful military in the history of the world. I don’t make threats.”
Two days later, the Russians requested another call. This time, the Russian defense minister dramatically claimed the Ukrainians were planning to use a “dirty bomb” — a false story the US believed the Kremlin was pushing as a pretext to deploy a nuclear weapon.
“We don’t believe you,” Austin said firmly in response, according to Woodward. “We don’t see any indications of this, and the world will see through this.”
“Don’t do it,” he said to Shoigu.
“I understand,” Shoigu replied.
“It was probably the most hair-raising moment of the whole war,” Colin Kahl, a senior Pentagon official, later said of the episode. …”
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All very Tom Clancy. But the first highlighted passage above provides new insight on the much criticized U.S. restraints on Ukraine’s defense — basically keeping up our end of an implicit deal to avoid nuclear escalation…
