Biorhythms for Carolina @Virginia: Post-Game Discussion

superrific said:
The reason Duke is good is that they have the best player in college basketball two years running now. Or at least one of the very best this year. And last year they also had a #4 draft pick who is one of the favorites to win NBA ROY. Oh, and another lottery pick.

The question was why Duke plays organized coherent defense and the answer, I think, is continuity. They are better this year on defense than last year, despite having no defender nearly as good as Flagg.

I mean, maybe Scheyer is a great defensive coach but they weren't that great on defense his first year. It's really hard to assess his coaching skills given that they routinely have more talent than anyone.
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They play hard.
 
UNCatTech said:
If they win enough to keep him around, do you think he will ever be ready?
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I think it really depends. If the program continues as it has under the HD tenure then I don't see how you can say he's ready/right head coach coach for UNC. But, my expectations of his job description will differ from you, and others.

Many here are happy/fine with the way the program has been under his lead. So, to them, status quo will "show" that he's the right person for the job.

Where do you fall in this? If we continue to see the typical results we've seen with him in charge, do you think he should stay as the head coach?
 
stankeylegjones said:
I think it really depends. If the program continues as it has under the HD tenure then I don't see how you can say he's ready/right head coach coach for UNC. But, my expectations of his job description will differ from you, and others.

Many here are happy/fine with the way the program has been under his lead. So, to them, status quo will "show" that he's the right person for the job.

Where do you fall in this? If we continue to see the typical results we've seen with him in charge, do you think he should stay as the head coach?
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I give him some leeway due to all the changes in college sports.

But this is a team that has National Championships in the last 4 decades. For him to stay he has to have some legit shots at continuing that trend. There are only 4 years in this decade to do that.

I don't want to end up like some blue bloods and go 20 years between Championships.
 
superrific said:
No it's not. Look at KenPom's defensive ratings. They are based on defensive efficiency per 100 possessions. The difference between the #1 team and the #31 team is about 10 points per 100. In other words, dunks versus contested jumpshots on 6-7% of possessions (assuming even contested jumpshots sometimes go in).

There were about 60 possessions in the game. 30 possessions per half, let's say. The difference between the best team and a decent team is about 3 points. In other words, one or two defensive breakdowns that happens for the #31 team but not the #1 team.

So if the team plays a half with no defensive breakdowns, that's better than mediocre defense on the basis of about two plays on average. And when you are talking about variance, two plays is nothing.

Playing good defense for 20 minutes is no different from shooting 8-15 from 3 in a half. It says almost nothing about the team's overall ability in either case. I know I have oversimplified the defensive model here a bit, because our data set is very limited, but I'm confident the point is the same either way. The difference between great defenses and average ones are a couple of lapses here or there. It's easy for the defense to look good for a half even if, over the course of a season, it's not that good.
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You're determining if Carolina plays good defense in a general manner. And you've done a good job of answering that question. But that's not what I said, I talked about Carolina's ability to play good defense. Which is a related, but significantly different, concept.

Ability is whether or not you're capable of doing something at all while being good at it (in general) is whether or not you do it consistently.

For instance, looking at a different sport. If a guy hits a home run once every 100 at bats in the majors, it shows he has the ability to hit HRs at the MLB level, but it also shows that he's generally not very good at it.

Against Virginia in the second half, Carolina showed the ability to play good defense. The metrics, by and large, bear that out as the defensive metrics for that half are good for Carolina. Furthermore, the eye test also showed Carolina largely in good defensive position, contesting shots, forcing turnovers, etc. So because the metrics for the half and the eye test combined show that Carolina, indeed, played good defense for that half, then it indeed proves that Carolina has the ability to play good defense, whether they do so consistently or not.
 
superrific said:
I mean that "I want UNC to lose because I want a new coach" tends to be indistinguishable in observable behavior from "I want UNC to win but also doubt that HD is the right coach." They differ only by an internal phase.
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For someone who prides himself on being Mr. Logic, you certainly staked out an illogical position here.

I don't think HD is the right coach for Carolina, but I also want the team to win every game they play.

If you were to observe me watching a Carolina Basketball game, you would see me cheering when Carolina does something "good" (as defined as an action that should contribute to winning the game) like scoring a basket or blocking a shot or stealing the ball or whatever and you'd see me have a viscerally negative reaction when Carolina does something "bad" (as defined as an action that should contribute to losing the game) like committing a turnover or missing a shot or fouling the opposing team. There is very much external evidence in my behavior that I am pulling for Carolina to win the games they play.

But I also want to HD to not be retained as HC after this season. If HD is retained at the end of the season, I will be visibly upset when I learn that news. There will be cussing and fussing and I will behave in a physical manner that shows unhappiness. Conversely, if HD either resigns or is fired, I will be visible excited when I learn that news. There will be hootin' and hollerin' and I will behave in a physical manner than shows happiness. Again, there will very much be external evidence of how I feel about HD as Carolina's head coach.

What the external behaviors related to these respective beliefs shows is that is fully possible to pull for Carolina to win games while also fully desiring HD to no longer be the HC.
 
stankeylegjones said:
I think it really depends. If the program continues as it has under the HD tenure then I don't see how you can say he's ready/right head coach coach for UNC. But, my expectations of his job description will differ from you, and others.

Many here are happy/fine with the way the program has been under his lead. So, to them, status quo will "show" that he's the right person for the job.

Where do you fall in this? If we continue to see the typical results we've seen with him in charge, do you think he should stay as the head coach?
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You are correct that if 50% of his seasons are like his second and fourth then he won’t last long. But if they are like his first and third with an occasional down year he’ll be fine. This year is incomplete but the team has stacked some great wins. They are inconsistent for sure and that’s Davis’ challenge to fix and I do think he’s struggled in that regard.
 
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