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I can't imagine if I mixed Carolina Basketball and money in any real way...I'd be driven crazy by the result.
Biorhythms for Carolina @Virginia: Post-Game Discussion
- Thread starter donbosco
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- UNC Sports
I never bet on UNC because my bias affects the quality of the bet either way.
But if I did bet against UNC, I would not be happy with my blood money. It would feel dirty.
superrific
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I guess that's a difference between us. Your position is, I think, more common than mine. I don't believe too much in dirty money. A little, but not that much. Not enough for this hedging strategy to make me feel bad.
It's a standard Hollywood trope for the hero to be offered money in order to do something, and refuse it because the money is dirty. My perspective is that I'd take the money but, having received the money, refuse the villain's demands. Otherwise the money just gets funneled back into evil, whereas in my hands it could be used for good or at least for neutral (i.e. my present consumption). I'm also unusually strong-willed when it comes to doing the right thing. There would be little chance of the money corrupting me.
In general, I'm always puzzled by the way people honor corrupt bargains. For instance, remember the NBA ref who was almost certainly throwing games to benefit gamblers? I think the setup was that the ref had borrowed money from the mob and was thus in a compromised position. My question is: if the mafia could get this ref to fix games with threats of violence, why did it matter whether he owed them money? Why not just threaten the ref period? I think there are answers in psychology and in organizational dynamics but on the surface it appears irrational. And the same goes for the ref. If you don't think the mob would kill you if you didn't owe them money, then why would they kill you if you do?
Heelsandeers
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UNC has the top 2 of 3 players in the matchup with Duke this year. The two rosters are not so far apart in terms of overall talent imo
Duke to me is still the deeper team and clearly benefits from half of the rotation being returning players. Foster being the underwhelming piece who has improved as a Jr
It is almost comical though that UNC finally has the dominant, certified top player that fans have been wanting to see come through the program for forever. And of course Duke has one of 1-2 players in the country who have been better
Duke to me is still the deeper team and clearly benefits from half of the rotation being returning players. Foster being the underwhelming piece who has improved as a Jr
It is almost comical though that UNC finally has the dominant, certified top player that fans have been wanting to see come through the program for forever. And of course Duke has one of 1-2 players in the country who have been better
superrific
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I think of that strategy as more like hedging than betting. It's like buying oil company stocks if you have a long commute.
I've owned stock in Pepsi and its various corporate owners for a long time. I drink lots of Pepsi. So if Pepsi raises prices, then my stock goes up and that compensates for the additional costs at the grocery store. To put it differently I have a natural short position on Pepsi so I hedge it with a long on Pepsi stock.
Yes, I taught corporate finance. Anyone who doubts it should see my portfolio. I also eat a lot of Kellogg's cereal. LOL. Most of my money is index funds but I do a bit of hedging here and there.
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Not to go further off course with this line of discussion... but I'd guess that generally a ref who owes the mob money, owes that money because of gambling... and I further assume that owing the mob money for gambling debts is considered a career ending situation for a ref if made public.
superrific
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Good point. There are other examples of what I'm talking about but yes, far afield.
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IMO, the things impacting our drop in D from Dec to Jan are:
- Seth coming back
- Our entire team being new
- Long road trip after the holidays
- Lack of athleticism on the wings
- Need to adjust lineups due to solving for PG/wing issues
- Our top player being a freshman (not raised by an NBA journeyman)
- Level of competition increasing going from preseason to ACC play (this one is iffy, thus last)
- Others?
All this being said, we should not have crapped the bed the way we did. Our D should not have dropped off the way it did. There are legit criticisms of HD not fixing/ solving for it faster.
- Seth coming back
- Our entire team being new
- Long road trip after the holidays
- Lack of athleticism on the wings
- Need to adjust lineups due to solving for PG/wing issues
- Our top player being a freshman (not raised by an NBA journeyman)
- Level of competition increasing going from preseason to ACC play (this one is iffy, thus last)
- Others?
All this being said, we should not have crapped the bed the way we did. Our D should not have dropped off the way it did. There are legit criticisms of HD not fixing/ solving for it faster.
Heelsandeers
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The constantly changing lineups, young team, that is lacking athletes on the perimeter all seem like big factors. It also felt like Caleb was being tasked with too much, even for a player of his caliber
Perhaps most important, Seth coming back after missing time and just not being good. Another player probably being asked to do more than he should be. The roster construction is what it is and we new the issues before the season
I think the good news is a lot is correctable with a stable rotation and more reps. Doubt if they turn into an elite defensive group at this point but if they can get into that top 20-25 range they are in business
Bigs23
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I don't know about that. The 2 dook guys other than Boozer are consistently ahead of HV in the mocks
Aggregate 2026 NBA Mock Draft 3.0: A special class comes into focus
HoopsHype’s third Aggregate 2026 Mock Draft highlights a potentially historic top five featuring Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cam Boozer. As conference play heats up, we analyze a guard-heavy class and the impact of NIL on late-round decisions.
www.hoopshype.com
Heelsandeers
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I don't know about that. The 2 dook guys other than Boozer are consistently ahead of HV in the mocks
Aggregate 2026 NBA Mock Draft 3.0: A special class comes into focus
HoopsHype’s third Aggregate 2026 Mock Draft highlights a potentially historic top five featuring Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cam Boozer. As conference play heats up, we analyze a guard-heavy class and the impact of NIL on late-round decisions.
NBA draft rankings and best college players are not the same. You know this
As much as UNC is relying on Veessaar I wouldn't swap him with Ngongba. Certainly not for Evans
LeoBloom
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Some of my random thoughts on Hubert Davis as coach - not that I have any kind of penetrating insight, just my own opinions.
For me, yes, I wish we had done a true coaches search. I don't believe we did that. Had Roy Williams earned the right to influence the hire? Yes. He clearly thought Hubert Davis was ready for the job and he obviously knows a ton more than I do. Hubert played at a super high level at UNC and for over a decade at the highest level possible. He is very familiar with successful basketball and successful coaches.
I do go back to the story about how he became an assistant for Roy. It was not his idea; it was Roy's idea. Hubert did not have a desire to be a coach. He was not seeking it out. Roy wanted to be a coach. Dean wanted to be a coach. That doesn't mean Hubert doesn't have passion or anything like that, but it does make me think about the difference between someone who wanted to be a coach from a young age and one who didn't. Is that a factor at all? Maybe
We don't know what Dean would have done or suggested. Dean clearly did not think Matt Doherty was the right choice. Heck, Dean brought up Rick Majerus. He was thinking outside the immediate family. It's not like Dean wouldn't recommend someone who he believes is ready. Dean advocated for Roy to get the Kansas job. That worked out. Dean knew Doherty was not the right choice for UNC - he was right there too. It's not like Dean thought all former players would be great coaches at UNC or major programs. We have evidence he didn't.
The reason I am a UNC fan is because of Dean Smith. There are two components for that. One is what a great person he was and how he ran the program. The second is he won a lot. Let's be honest, we would not venerate Dean to the degree we do if had been a .500 coach. Heck, he probably would not have lasted for 36 years as coach if that was the case. Dean was an amazing person and leader, a deep thinker, a social justice warrior. But he was also a hell of great coach who won a lot of games.
Dean also was not infallible. I love Coach Guthridge and as head coach he took us to 2 Final Fours in 3 seasons. But looking back, we should have gone after Roy right then. If we go after Roy in 1997, we get him. (All of this is MO, of course.) If Roy comes in 1997, he wins more than 3 national titles here.
I do not think Hubert is the right answer long term for UNC. I hope I am wrong. But the inconsistency is a huge red flag to me. That and his record in Q1 games - which is well below .500. We have not been good in those games overall. I also wonder why it can take him so long to make some rotation changes. Again, there are many reasons for sticking with certain players, especially in the NIL era. However, it just seems it takes him a while to make changes, like going from Garcia to Manek and Evans to Dixon.
Personally, and this is just my own style choice, I'm not a big fan of calling so many set plays. Out of timeouts and dead balls? Absolutely. But it seems to me Hubert blocks the flow of the game sometimes. It also seems our identity is not consistent. Are we a pick and roll based offense? A high low offense? A four and one in offense? It seems we try these at times and abandon them. Roy had a clear identity. Dean had a clear identity (he ran multiple offenses but his base was freelance). Maybe that is the price for hiring an experienced head coach has he grows. But maybe it isn't.
For me, yes, I wish we had done a true coaches search. I don't believe we did that. Had Roy Williams earned the right to influence the hire? Yes. He clearly thought Hubert Davis was ready for the job and he obviously knows a ton more than I do. Hubert played at a super high level at UNC and for over a decade at the highest level possible. He is very familiar with successful basketball and successful coaches.
I do go back to the story about how he became an assistant for Roy. It was not his idea; it was Roy's idea. Hubert did not have a desire to be a coach. He was not seeking it out. Roy wanted to be a coach. Dean wanted to be a coach. That doesn't mean Hubert doesn't have passion or anything like that, but it does make me think about the difference between someone who wanted to be a coach from a young age and one who didn't. Is that a factor at all? Maybe
We don't know what Dean would have done or suggested. Dean clearly did not think Matt Doherty was the right choice. Heck, Dean brought up Rick Majerus. He was thinking outside the immediate family. It's not like Dean wouldn't recommend someone who he believes is ready. Dean advocated for Roy to get the Kansas job. That worked out. Dean knew Doherty was not the right choice for UNC - he was right there too. It's not like Dean thought all former players would be great coaches at UNC or major programs. We have evidence he didn't.
The reason I am a UNC fan is because of Dean Smith. There are two components for that. One is what a great person he was and how he ran the program. The second is he won a lot. Let's be honest, we would not venerate Dean to the degree we do if had been a .500 coach. Heck, he probably would not have lasted for 36 years as coach if that was the case. Dean was an amazing person and leader, a deep thinker, a social justice warrior. But he was also a hell of great coach who won a lot of games.
Dean also was not infallible. I love Coach Guthridge and as head coach he took us to 2 Final Fours in 3 seasons. But looking back, we should have gone after Roy right then. If we go after Roy in 1997, we get him. (All of this is MO, of course.) If Roy comes in 1997, he wins more than 3 national titles here.
I do not think Hubert is the right answer long term for UNC. I hope I am wrong. But the inconsistency is a huge red flag to me. That and his record in Q1 games - which is well below .500. We have not been good in those games overall. I also wonder why it can take him so long to make some rotation changes. Again, there are many reasons for sticking with certain players, especially in the NIL era. However, it just seems it takes him a while to make changes, like going from Garcia to Manek and Evans to Dixon.
Personally, and this is just my own style choice, I'm not a big fan of calling so many set plays. Out of timeouts and dead balls? Absolutely. But it seems to me Hubert blocks the flow of the game sometimes. It also seems our identity is not consistent. Are we a pick and roll based offense? A high low offense? A four and one in offense? It seems we try these at times and abandon them. Roy had a clear identity. Dean had a clear identity (he ran multiple offenses but his base was freelance). Maybe that is the price for hiring an experienced head coach has he grows. But maybe it isn't.
stankeylegjones
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This is a great post that captures a lot of my feelings. Thank you for writing this and posting this.
Luck.
I know it is a cop-out, and to an extent you can allow a team to create its own luck by gaining confidence, but UNC was just extremely unlucky at SMU, Stanford and Cal in terms of shots going in the basket. You don't guard free throw shooters, either, and some games your opponent can't miss and other games they can't make the broad side of a barn.
My opinion is that UNC was likely 1-2 standard deviations to the wrong side of the curve in those three games, as well as the Wake second half. Sometimes the opponent can't miss. I suspect that luck will normalize somewhat over the balance of the schedule.
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Do we truly have faith in the UNC head coach hiring process? If HD was pushed out, what are the odds that we would wind up with somebody better? Somebody equivalent? Somebody worse?
He's clearly not performing consistently at the level we expect of a UNC head coach. But there is not a slam dunk Roy Williams option out there waiting for us.
HD is not a bad coach IMO. A bad coach does not take his first team to the NC game. He's inexperienced... learning as he goes, on the biggest stage, under the brightest lights. His highs rank among some of the greatest moments for me as a fan... his lows have been pretty darn dark.
Can he smooth out those lows to Sweet 16ish kind of seasons? That's the question to me. Some clearly think no. I still think he can. Reasonable minds can differ, especially on something as ephemeral as betting on personal/ professional growth.
But I do think it's worth asking the question, could things be worse? Having lived through the Doh Wars, I can answer that question with 100% certainty. HD is a good man. From a character standpoint, he's a lot like Dean and Roy. Can he be an equivalent coach? I honestly don't know... especially in the new world of college sports that drove Roy out.
But personally, I'd rather give HD a bit more runway before playing the russian roulette of UNC head coaching searches... that's just me. I also think we as fans are doing more damage to the program right now with the constant speculation on HD's future. He's done an amazing job of recruiting top tier talent despite it, but we are definitely hurting the program by having these constant public debates.
He's clearly not performing consistently at the level we expect of a UNC head coach. But there is not a slam dunk Roy Williams option out there waiting for us.
HD is not a bad coach IMO. A bad coach does not take his first team to the NC game. He's inexperienced... learning as he goes, on the biggest stage, under the brightest lights. His highs rank among some of the greatest moments for me as a fan... his lows have been pretty darn dark.
Can he smooth out those lows to Sweet 16ish kind of seasons? That's the question to me. Some clearly think no. I still think he can. Reasonable minds can differ, especially on something as ephemeral as betting on personal/ professional growth.
But I do think it's worth asking the question, could things be worse? Having lived through the Doh Wars, I can answer that question with 100% certainty. HD is a good man. From a character standpoint, he's a lot like Dean and Roy. Can he be an equivalent coach? I honestly don't know... especially in the new world of college sports that drove Roy out.
But personally, I'd rather give HD a bit more runway before playing the russian roulette of UNC head coaching searches... that's just me. I also think we as fans are doing more damage to the program right now with the constant speculation on HD's future. He's done an amazing job of recruiting top tier talent despite it, but we are definitely hurting the program by having these constant public debates.
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If there's one criticism of Coach Davis that resonates most with me, it's his rotations. I just think they need to be a lot more predictable and stable. Our most success came when he basically picked 5 guys and didn't really play anyone else. And in my unpopular opinion, that's what contributed most last year to the poor performance of Cade Tyson.
This is very much where I am. It's not that I'm sold on Hubert as a long term coach so much as I think it's a greater risk, all things considered, to act too fast than to be a little too patient. Replacing him at a technical level later doesn't matter that much. Replacing him now is really committing to a new path in unsettled times.
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Considering his mentor, I am surprised he does as little experimentation with his lineups as he does. Am I the only one who remembers the 20+ page irate threads on "Mad Scientist Roy" for the constant bizarre lineups he'd throw out through all of Nov-Dec? I think it was second only to his timeout hoarding for things that drove a segment of fans nuts.
Honestly, I think one of the things that has hurt HD is the hesitancy he's had to experiment in pre-conference play. With every game being a referendum on his coaching life, and 20+ page threads on how letting a 25-point lead slip to 15 is going to destroy our analytics... it's a wonder he does any.