Biorhythms for Carolina @Virginia: Post-Game Discussion

[Icky Mettle]

I never bet on UNC because my bias affects the quality of the bet either way.

But if I did bet against UNC, I would not be happy with my blood money. It would feel dirty.

I’ve never filled out a bracket that didn’t have UNC winning it all (apart from the rare years they didn’t make the NCAAT).

 

[Calheel]

Do we truly have faith in the UNC head coach hiring process? If HD was pushed out, what are the odds that we would wind up with somebody better? Somebody equivalent? Somebody worse?

He's clearly not performing consistently at the level we expect of a UNC head coach. But there is not a slam dunk Roy Williams option out there waiting for us.

HD is not a bad coach IMO. A bad coach does not take his first team to the NC game. He's inexperienced... learning as he goes, on the biggest stage, under the brightest lights. His highs rank among some of the greatest moments for me as a fan... his lows have been pretty darn dark.

Can he smooth out those lows to Sweet 16ish kind of seasons? That's the question to me. Some clearly think no. I still think he can. Reasonable minds can differ, especially on something as ephemeral as betting on personal/ professional growth.

But I do think it's worth asking the question, could things be worse? Having lived through the Doh Wars, I can answer that question with 100% certainty. HD is a good man. From a character standpoint, he's a lot like Dean and Roy. Can he be an equivalent coach? I honestly don't know... especially in the new world of college sports that drove Roy out.

But personally, I'd rather give HD a bit more runway before playing the russian roulette of UNC head coaching searches... that's just me. I also think we as fans are doing more damage to the program right now with the constant speculation on HD's future. He's done an amazing job of recruiting top tier talent despite it, but we are definitely hurting the program by having these constant public debates.

Our history of hiring coaches for the major sports has not been good. Roy was the only great hire. Gut was OK, as was Fedora. Hubert Davis and Butch Davis were both blah. Torbush, Doherty, Bunting, and Belichick were all terrible hires.

 

[Calheel]

I’ve never filled out a bracket that didn’t have UNC winning it all (apart from the rare years they didn’t make the NCAAT).

I don't consider brackets to be gambling. More like buying a lotto ticket.
But I won't compete with other Heel fans in bracket challenges because I don't want to pick against the Heels for strategic reasons.

 

[NYCBlueBlood]

Our history of hiring coaches for the major sports has not been good. Roy was the only great hire. Gut was OK, as was Fedora. Hubert Davis and Butch Davis were both blah. Torbush, Doherty, Bunting, and Belichick were all terrible hires.

If you ask me, there is a greater than 50% chance that a replacement hire would be a step down... and I think HD still has a lot of room for growth.

 

[Calheel]

If you ask me, there is a greater than 50% chance that a replacement hire would be a step down... and I think HD still has a lot of room for growth.

There is always a risk that the new coach is worse than the old coach (see Mack v. Bill).

But once you decide that a coach isn't meeting the standards and likely won't, you have to make a change, even if that means replacing Herb Sendek with Sidney Lowe. The worst possible scenario is to stay in an infinite blah position with a blah coach. Better to bottom out and try again than to stay with someone that will not get it done.

 

[NYCBlueBlood]

I don't consider brackets to be gambling. More like buying a lotto ticket.
But I won't compete with other Heel fans in bracket challenges because I don't want to pick against the Heels for strategic reasons.

Filling out brackets is part of the fun of the NCAAT... it gives you a cheering interest in pretty much every game being played... especially those first two rounds when there are 3 to 4 games going on every minute of the day. I've never played one with serious money, but to me it's all just about competing with your friends to see who does better. Sure it can be gambling if you really want it to be... but for me it's part of the social fun of the event.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Some of my random thoughts on Hubert Davis as coach - not that I have any kind of penetrating insight, just my own opinions.

For me, yes, I wish we had done a true coaches search. I don't believe we did that. Had Roy Williams earned the right to influence the hire? Yes. He clearly thought Hubert Davis was ready for the job and he obviously knows a ton more than I do. Hubert played at a super high level at UNC and for over a decade at the highest level possible. He is very familiar with successful basketball and successful coaches.

I do go back to the story about how he became an assistant for Roy. It was not his idea; it was Roy's idea. Hubert did not have a desire to be a coach. He was not seeking it out. Roy wanted to be a coach. Dean wanted to be a coach. That doesn't mean Hubert doesn't have passion or anything like that, but it does make me think about the difference between someone who wanted to be a coach from a young age and one who didn't. Is that a factor at all? Maybe

We don't know what Dean would have done or suggested. Dean clearly did not think Matt Doherty was the right choice. Heck, Dean brought up Rick Majerus. He was thinking outside the immediate family. It's not like Dean wouldn't recommend someone who he believes is ready. Dean advocated for Roy to get the Kansas job. That worked out. Dean knew Doherty was not the right choice for UNC - he was right there too. It's not like Dean thought all former players would be great coaches at UNC or major programs. We have evidence he didn't.

The reason I am a UNC fan is because of Dean Smith. There are two components for that. One is what a great person he was and how he ran the program. The second is he won a lot. Let's be honest, we would not venerate Dean to the degree we do if had been a .500 coach. Heck, he probably would not have lasted for 36 years as coach if that was the case. Dean was an amazing person and leader, a deep thinker, a social justice warrior. But he was also a hell of great coach who won a lot of games.

Dean also was not infallible. I love Coach Guthridge and as head coach he took us to 2 Final Fours in 3 seasons. But looking back, we should have gone after Roy right then. If we go after Roy in 1997, we get him. (All of this is MO, of course.) If Roy comes in 1997, he wins more than 3 national titles here.

I do not think Hubert is the right answer long term for UNC. I hope I am wrong. But the inconsistency is a huge red flag to me. That and his record in Q1 games - which is well below .500. We have not been good in those games overall. I also wonder why it can take him so long to make some rotation changes. Again, there are many reasons for sticking with certain players, especially in the NIL era. However, it just seems it takes him a while to make changes, like going from Garcia to Manek and Evans to Dixon.

Personally, and this is just my own style choice, I'm not a big fan of calling so many set plays. Out of timeouts and dead balls? Absolutely. But it seems to me Hubert blocks the flow of the game sometimes. It also seems our identity is not consistent. Are we a pick and roll based offense? A high low offense? A four and one in offense? It seems we try these at times and abandon them. Roy had a clear identity. Dean had a clear identity (he ran multiple offenses but his base was freelance). Maybe that is the price for hiring an experienced head coach has he grows. But maybe it isn't.

Considering the time Dean decided to retire (October, right before the season started), I don’t we were in a position to get Roy even if we tried. I do believe the plan was for Roy to be Dean’s successor, but the timing of Dean’s retirement announcement impacted that.

 

[Calheel]

Filling out brackets is part of the fun of the NCAAT... it gives you a cheering interest in pretty much every game being played... especially those first two rounds when there are 3 to 4 games going on every minute of the day. I've never played one with serious money, but to me it's all just about competing with your friends to see who does better. Sure it can be gambling if you really want it to be... but for me it's part of the social fun of the event.

Exactly. And that is why I don't consider it gambling. I almost always pick the Heels to win it or to get farther than is reasonable to predict. And given the Heels have twice made it to the Final Four from the 8th seed, that is not an unreasonable strategy.

But I can't bet for or against the Heels for individual games. I am way too biased. I might as well just throw money into a slot machine, as it would be smarter gambling.

 

[akillesheel]

If you ask me, there is a greater than 50% chance that a replacement hire would be a step down... and I think HD still has a lot of room for growth.

i'm just not really sure there's been any evidence of growth in the 5+ years he's had the job. imo it's gotten well past the point where we just can't expect that room for growth to be realized.

i disagree with the first part of your comment as well, but i suppose it's anybody's guess on that front.

 

[NYCBlueBlood]

There is always a risk that the new coach is worse than the old coach (see Mack v. Bill).

But once you decide that a coach isn't meeting the standards and likely won't, you have to make a change, even if that means replacing Herb Sendek with Sidney Lowe. The worst possible scenario is to stay in an infinite blah position with a blah coach. Better to bottom out and try again than to stay with someone that will not get it done.

Yes and no. We can't be State-ish about this. If we kick a beloved member of the family to the curb for somebody who winds up worse, there are going to be implications well beyond the 240th coaching failure at State. Doh was an absolute disaster, and booting him nearly ripped the family in half. We survived because we had Roy waiting in the wings. There is no Roy waiting.

So while I agree we can't settle for mediocrity, I think it would be an incredibly poor decision to jump the gun and declare HD incapable before giving him a full chance. And while I understand your point about bottoming out and starting over... if you think things are bad now, there is no way this family survives the last 20 years of State basketball since Herbie the Love Bug was booted from Raleigh.

 

[NYCBlueBlood]

Considering the time Dean decided to retire (October, right before the season started), I don’t we were in a position to get Roy even if we tried. I do believe the plan was for Roy to be Dean’s successor, but the timing of Dean’s retirement announcement impacted that.

The timing of Dean's announcement was intentional to force the hand of turning things over to Gut. The plan always was for Gut to "get his turn" then hand it over to Roy. The problem was Gut was enjoying it and held on too long, crapped the bed with recruiting as a known lame duck coach, and then tried to toss it in Roy's lap right as he had built a national contender team.

 

[Calheel]

Yes and no. We can't be State-ish about this. If we kick a beloved member of the family to the curb for somebody who winds up worse, there are going to be implications well beyond the 240th coaching failure at State. Doh was an absolute disaster, and booting him nearly ripped the family in half. We survived because we had Roy waiting in the wings. There is no Roy waiting.

So while I agree we can't settle for mediocrity, I think it would be an incredibly poor decision to jump the gun and declare HD incapable before giving him a full chance. And while I understand your point about bottoming out and starting over... if you think things are bad now, there is no way this family survives the last 20 years of State basketball since Herbie the Love Bug was booted from Raleigh.

If that is our philosophy, then we should never, ever hire alums to coach any of our sports.

Coaches need to stand on their own two feet and be judged without bias or favoritism. If we would fire Fedora or Torbush for underperformance, we need to be equally willing to fire Bunting or Hubert Davis.

If we are retaining an alum that we otherwise would fire but for alum status, that is a terrible way to run an organization. I hope that Newmark and Roberts are not thinking that way.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Yes and no. We can't be State-ish about this. If we kick a beloved member of the family to the curb for somebody who winds up worse, there are going to be implications well beyond the 240th coaching failure at State. Doh was an absolute disaster, and booting him nearly ripped the family in half. We survived because we had Roy waiting in the wings. There is no Roy waiting.

So while I agree we can't settle for mediocrity, I think it would be an incredibly poor decision to jump the gun and declare HD incapable before giving him a full chance. And while I understand your point about bottoming out and starting over... if you think things are bad now, there is no way this family survives the last 20 years of State basketball since Herbie the Love Bug was booted from Raleigh.

In your opinion, what constitutes a "full chance?"

 

[Icky Mettle]

The timing of Dean's announcement was intentional to force the hand of turning things over to Gut. The plan always was for Gut to "get his turn" then hand it over to Roy. The problem was Gut was enjoying it and held on too long, crapped the bed with recruiting as a known lame duck coach, and then tried to toss it in Roy's lap right as he had built a national contender team.

I know that was Dean’s plan when he did it, but I’m not sure that was the general plan as of several months or more before that. I don’t know what was always in Dean’s head, but I think the general understanding among those within/close to the program was that Roy would be the successor when Dean retired.

Also, I’ve made a million posts on this and this isn’t necessarily the place to to discuss it further, but the notion that Gut crapped the bed in recruiting is inaccurate, and one should look at Dean’s last three years of recruiting first.

 

[LeoBloom]

Considering the time Dean decided to retire (October, right before the season started), I don’t we were in a position to get Roy even if we tried. I do believe the plan was for Roy to be Dean’s successor, but the timing of Dean’s retirement announcement impacted that.

I think Dean chose that time to retire so Gut would get the job.

 

[donbosco]

Some of these most recent comments have caused me to reflect a bit more deeply on a Davis ouster.

1.I genuinely have only disdain for the Belichick hire and what I've heard about it (Tom Tillis? Marco Rubio? --> I admit that my knowledge is not comprehensive but I also admit that I find even the most "known" aspects pretty off-putting).

2.I'm concerned about the influence on the less informationally dedicated fanbase 'out there.' What will be the "sense" of an ouster to that segment of the faithful?

I've written elsewhere about my other thoughts on this.

 

[NYCBlueBlood]

In your opinion, what constitutes a "full chance?"

It's murky. I get it. But in 4 seasons he's had a NC Game and a ACC Championship/1 seed. So even though the other 2 seasons have been poor, IMO he's shown he can coach... he just needs to be consistent. I think we will know more after this season. I just wish we would sit back and see how it unfolds. Constant public bickering over whether he should be fired after every single game is just damaging the program.

 

[stankeylegjones]

It's murky. I get it. But in 4 seasons he's had a NC Game and a ACC Championship/1 seed. So even though the other 2 seasons have been poor, IMO he's shown he can coach... he just needs to be consistent. I think we will know more after this season. I just wish we would sit back and see how it unfolds. Constant public bickering over whether he should be fired after every single game is just damaging the program.

If this season ends the way it's been going (around a fringe top-25 team according to all of the analytics), would that be enough to part ways with him, in your opinion?

 

[NYCBlueBlood]

If that is our philosophy, then we should never, ever hire alums to coach any of our sports.

Coaches need to stand on their own two feet and be judged without bias or favoritism. If we would fire Fedora or Torbush for underperformance, we need to be equally willing to fire Bunting or Hubert Davis.

If we are retaining an alum that we otherwise would fire but for alum status, that is a terrible way to run an organization. I hope that Newmark and Roberts are not thinking that way.

Hiring alums is fine. But you go into it knowing one of the downsides is that it's trickier/ messier to get out of if things go sideways. So you have to make a call if the gains of keeping it in the family are worth the risks of disentangling yourself if thigs go sideways.

 

[uncjhodges]

If this season ends the way it's been going (around a fringe top-25 team according to all of the analytics), would that be enough to part ways with him, in your opinion?

And if it ends that way, a 6/7 seed. That’d be his 2nd best regular season performance which is clearly not good enough.