Biorhythms for UNC @dook: 6:30 Start

stankeylegjones said:
From Tipton, regarding recruiting:

“You know, they’re a well-oiled machine right now,” said the agent. “Honestly man, I feel like there’s really not a team that’s kind of got the structure and build like Duke. You know, they’ve got (Baker) in the background of things helping with their NIL operations…(she’s) got deep ties in all areas of grassroots and so on. They can essentially get involved with whoever they want.”


“They’ve (UNC) got to kind of re-evaluate who they’re going after and how they’re approaching it. Because if they want to be at the same level as Duke, they’ve got to change some things. I feel like North Carolina has all the resources and tools they want to be good, but they just seem a little behind.”
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For those asking where I got my suppositions, it’s details like this, the Flagg numbers, and all the other bits and pieces of chatter that make it clear dook is substantially outspending us not least because they don’t have to disclose anything and they have much deeper connections to the world of finance and creative financial instruments, plus a fan base absolutely rabid for the team. I don’t have any inside info but you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
 
I haven't seen the game yet. I had to work last night; I've been busy today; and I have to work again tonight. I hope to watch it tomorrow.

I'm not sure the Heels would have won with Caleb Wilson at Cameron, but would his availability have shaved 10 points off the deficit?
 
UNCMSinLS said:
I haven't seen the game yet. I had to work last night; I've been busy today; and I have to work again tonight. I hope to watch it tomorrow.

I'm not sure the Heels would have won with Caleb Wilson at Cameron, but would his availability have shaved 10 points off the deficit?
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It might have but that's really hard to quantify.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
I'm not sure the Heels would have won with Caleb Wilson at Cameron, but would his availability have shaved 10 points off the deficit?
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At least. I'm sure Caleb's Value Above Replacement is *at least* 10 points. And High, while serviceable, is practically the definition of replacement level.
 
donbosco said:
So for the moment, did Veesaar drop into the second round after last night’s performance?
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When it comes to the NBA draft, there really is no "for the moment" because the draft isn't like the stock market where there is daily movement.

Veesaar is today what he was yesterday morning, a likely late-first/early-second pick whose final draft slot will likely depend on which team ends up with which draft picks in the range he's likely to go and how he does in workouts leading up to the draft.
 
Mundial said:
No GM that knows anything about the current state of NBA basketball would take Boozer over Wilson. Maybe Petersen (head case) or AJ, but not Boozer. Sorry Dookie. Wilson is better now, still has not reached his potential and has a lot of upside. Kevin Garnett reincarnated but in a nicer, smarter package.
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Wrong. Boozer is having one of the best seasons in college basketball history, from what I understand. And pretty much everyone in the NBA would take Boozer over Wilson. Wilson isn't a PF at the next level and he's not got the three-point shot yet to thrive as a SF. Wilson's best feature, I think, is his competitiveness. It's not hard to imagine him getting a good three point shot. It might be hard to imagine him not getting it. But he doesn't have it yet, nor does he yet have Boozer's playmaking ability.

The idea that "NBA values potential" isn't really correct, at least not in the way it used to be. I mean, yes, the NBA wants potential but it's learned that potential is best measured from the baseline of current ability. All the "athletic" big men who couldn't really play when they got to the league, and never really learned (e.g. Bamba, Noel, Labassiere, Vesely, Kwame Brown, etc. etc. etc.) have taught teams that the best prospects are the best players who also have room to grow.
 
Missing Caleb also had an ill effect on Veesaar.
You can’t discount their Hi-Lo connections all year long. Caleb draws double teams and extra attention which opens things up for everybody but most especially Veesaar.
It’s easy to speculate that had Caleb played unencumbered he would have gotten his 20 & 10, and Veesaar would have gotten his usual double double too.

It would have been a totally different ball game and everybody knows it.
 
SnoopRob said:
When it comes to the NBA draft, there really is no "for the moment" because the draft isn't like the stock market where there is daily movement.

Veesaar is today what he was yesterday morning, a likely late-first/early-second pick whose final draft slot will likely depend on which team ends up with which draft picks in the range he's likely to go and how he does in workouts leading up to the draft.
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I had no idea that the Mock Draft was set in stone. What’s the date for that?
 
SnoopRob said:
When it comes to the NBA draft, there really is no "for the moment" because the draft isn't like the stock market where there is daily movement.
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Not daily movement, perhaps, but there absolutely is movement. Don bosco's qualifier "for the moment" is accurate. You're confusing 'underlying value" with "perceived value." The underlying value of a stock doesn't change day to day but the perceived value does.
 
superrific said:
Not daily movement, perhaps, but there absolutely is movement. Don bosco's qualifier "for the moment" is accurate. You're confusing 'underlying value" with "perceived value." The underlying value of a stock doesn't change day to day but the perceived value does.
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There is movement, sure, but it's unlikely to come based on performance in any one game, especially this deep into the season.

Nothing that happened in last night's game is going to make a material difference in Veesaar's draft stock unless it's revealed he sustained a significant injury during the game.
 
superrific said:
Wrong. Boozer is having one of the best seasons in college basketball history, from what I understand. And pretty much everyone in the NBA would take Boozer over Wilson. Wilson isn't a PF at the next level and he's not got the three-point shot yet to thrive as a SF. Wilson's best feature, I think, is his competitiveness. It's not hard to imagine him getting a good three point shot. It might be hard to imagine him not getting it. But he doesn't have it yet, nor does he yet have Boozer's playmaking ability.

The idea that "NBA values potential" isn't really correct, at least not in the way it used to be. I mean, yes, the NBA wants potential but it's learned that potential is best measured from the baseline of current ability. All the "athletic" big men who couldn't really play when they got to the league, and never really learned (e.g. Bamba, Noel, Labassiere, Vesely, Kwame Brown, etc. etc. etc.) have taught teams that the best prospects are the best players who also have room to grow.
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Boozer is starting with a higher floor than Wilson but Wilson has a higher ceiling.
 
superrific said:
At least. I'm sure Caleb's Value Above Replacement is *at least* 10 points. And High, while serviceable, is practically the definition of replacement level.
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According to Miya, Caleb has an OBPR = 5.17, DBPR = 3.63 (BPR = 8.81) which is 26th overall.

Other players of note:
HV has OBPR = 5.38, DBPR = 3.78 (BPR = 9.16) which is 21st overall
Ngongba has OBPR = 5.06, DBPR = 4.84 (BPR = 9.90) which is 9th overall
Boozer has OBPR = 9.98, DBPR = 5.10 (BPR = 15.08) which is 1st overall.

List is here:
evanmiya.com

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.
evanmiya.com evanmiya.com

Explanation is here:
blog.evanmiya.com

Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB

New updates and a full model technical explainer
blog.evanmiya.com blog.evanmiya.com

Bayesian Performance Rating represents how many points per 100 possessions better a player’s team is expected to be than its opponent if that player were on the court with nine other average Division I players. For example, if a player has a BPR of +5.0, this means that if he were playing with average D1 teammates, against average D1 players, his team would be expected to outscore the opposition by 5 points in a 100 possession game.
 
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