Biorhythms for UNC @dook: 6:30 Start

superrific said:
Wrong. Boozer is having one of the best seasons in college basketball history, from what I understand. And pretty much everyone in the NBA would take Boozer over Wilson. Wilson isn't a PF at the next level and he's not got the three-point shot yet to thrive as a SF. Wilson's best feature, I think, is his competitiveness. It's not hard to imagine him getting a good three point shot. It might be hard to imagine him not getting it. But he doesn't have it yet, nor does he yet have Boozer's playmaking ability.

The idea that "NBA values potential" isn't really correct, at least not in the way it used to be. I mean, yes, the NBA wants potential but it's learned that potential is best measured from the baseline of current ability. All the "athletic" big men who couldn't really play when they got to the league, and never really learned (e.g. Bamba, Noel, Labassiere, Vesely, Kwame Brown, etc. etc. etc.) have taught teams that the best prospects are the best players who also have room to grow.
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He's shooting 40.7% on 113 3PA.
 
stankeylegjones said:
Good point. I'm curious, historically, how wide the gap is.
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I'm just not sure why that matters. Dook has, in consecutive seasons, had the two best college basketball players in a long time. It's not a useful measuring stick when Duke has singular assets that they can get and we can't or don't.

I mean, both the winner and runner up ROY in the NBA were likely on Duke's team last year. The previous season they had Jared McClain as a first team all ROY IIRC. This is a level of talent hoarding that is more or less unprecedented and it doesn't reflect on us at all that this historical talent has emerged and headed to Derm.
 
SnoopRob said:
There is movement, sure, but it's unlikely to come based on performance in any one game, especially this deep into the season.
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Fair. I don't know exactly how the scouting system works, but my guess is that a player can help his stock at this point but not really hurt it. If he shows a capability that nobody knew he had, that can help. The NBA already knows Veesaar is soft, and everyone has a bad game.

But the stock is definitely not fixed. Workouts matter.
 
stankeylegjones said:
According to Miya, Caleb has an OBPR = 5.17, DBPR = 3.63 (BPR = 8.81) which is 26th overall.

Other players of note:
HV has OBPR = 5.38, DBPR = 3.78 (BPR = 9.16) which is 21st overall
Ngongba has OBPR = 5.06, DBPR = 4.84 (BPR = 9.90) which is 9th overall
Boozer has OBPR = 9.98, DBPR = 5.10 (BPR = 15.08) which is 1st overall.

List is here:
evanmiya.com

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics used widely by coaches, journalists, and fans.
evanmiya.com evanmiya.com

Explanation is here:
blog.evanmiya.com

Bayesian Performance Rating: The Best Player Metric in CBB

New updates and a full model technical explainer
blog.evanmiya.com blog.evanmiya.com

Bayesian Performance Rating represents how many points per 100 possessions better a player’s team is expected to be than its opponent if that player were on the court with nine other average Division I players. For example, if a player has a BPR of +5.0, this means that if he were playing with average D1 teammates, against average D1 players, his team would be expected to outscore the opposition by 5 points in a 100 possession game.
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Everyone can see plainly that Caleb is our best player. These sorts of stats do not produce reliable results on these sample sizes. I do not believe that Boozer is almost twice as good (technically above average) than Caleb. Not for a minute.

That said, Caleb's rating is 8.81 above average, so he'd be 10+ over replacement. Easily.
 
superrific said:
That's what they said about Doncic, which is why he went third. I don't know if that logic carries all that much weight in the NBA any more.
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Oh I don’t mean to imply where they will/should be drafted. Caleb has a very high ceiling. And that is not to discredit Boozer at all. Just think Caleb is more gifted physically than Boozer and Caleb has a strong skill set. Not at Boozer’s level, but Caleb has led the team in assist and steals from the PF position. He has skill and a feel for the game. Therein lies the floor/ceiling. Caleb can increase his skill level. Boozer is not gonna get close to Caleb athletically. Hope they both stay healthy so this discussion can continue at the next level.
 
stankeylegjones said:
From Tipton (via Rell), regarding recruiting:

“You know, they’re a well-oiled machine right now,” said the agent. “Honestly man, I feel like there’s really not a team that’s kind of got the structure and build like Duke. You know, they’ve got (Baker) in the background of things helping with their NIL operations…(she’s) got deep ties in all areas of grassroots and so on. They can essentially get involved with whoever they want.”


“They’ve (UNC) got to kind of re-evaluate who they’re going after and how they’re approaching it. Because if they want to be at the same level as Duke, they’ve got to change some things. I feel like North Carolina has all the resources and tools they want to be good, but they just seem a little behind.”
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This is very troubling, IMO. Yes, dook has had this money in place for years but we can’t keep lagging behind, not just in money but in infrastructure for ourselves and relation with the NBA.
 
To be fair, dook outrecruiting us for top talent has been going on for long while. K started his one-and-done machine over fifteen years ago, and Roy never really embraced or wanted that model. We certainly recruited good players, but they were often players who wouldn't go to the NBA right away and would stay for at least a couple of seasons if not longer, like Paige or Jackson or Kendall or Brice Johnson. That's what Roy wanted and we did very well under that system for a long time, even against dook. Scheyer basically inherited K's machine and, to his credit, has kept it running full force, and it is a system that is still well-suited to the new NIL and easy transfer era. Roy's system, which relied on players staying and developing if they didn't get playing time right away, isn't so well suited to this new era, which is probably why he retired when he did. Any new UNC coach after Roy would have needed to come up with something new for recruiting players and getting good results. That's not to say that Davis hasn't had his struggles, but I don't think that the system Roy was using would work when players on the bench can easily transfer somewhere else and instantly get more playing time, like VAL at State.
 
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Mulberry Heel said:
To be fair, dook outrecruiting us for top talent has been going on for long while. K started his one-and-done machine over fifteen years ago, and Roy never really embraced or wanted that model. We certainly recruited good players, but they were often players who wouldn't go to the NBA right away and would stay for at least a couple of seasons if not longer, like Paige or Jackson or Kendall or Brice Johnson. That's what Roy wanted and we did very well under that system for a long time, even against dook. Scheyer basically inherited that machine and, to his credit, has kept it running full force, and it is a system that is still well-suited to the new NIL and easy transfer era. Roy's system, which relied on players staying and developing if they didn't get playing time right away, isn't so well suited to this new era, which is probably why he retired when he did. Any new UNC coach after Roy would have needed to come up with something new for recruiting players and getting good results. That's not to say that Davis hasn't had his struggles, but I don't think that the system Roy was using would work when players on the bench can easily transfer somewhere else and instantly get more playing time, like VAL at State.
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Well stated.

It's not going to be possible to beat dook at their own game.
 
donbosco said:
So what are people referencing when they write of a player’s likely position in the draft?
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Depends on where and in what way they’re writing of it.

It could be an article, a blog post, a social media/message board post, a mock draft, or a number of other options.
 
DiehardHeelFan said:
Oh I don’t mean to imply where they will/should be drafted. Caleb has a very high ceiling. And that is not to discredit Boozer at all. Just think Caleb is more gifted physically than Boozer and Caleb has a strong skill set. Not at Boozer’s level, but Caleb has led the team in assist and steals from the PF position. He has skill and a feel for the game. Therein lies the floor/ceiling. Caleb can increase his skill level. Boozer is not gonna get close to Caleb athletically. Hope they both stay healthy so this discussion can continue at the next level.
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Caleb is quicker and can leap higher, but the NBA is so physical these days that Boozer's thickness will be an advantage. Once they start calling offensive fouls again (if they ever do), then maybe Caleb will be able to overtake him -- but currently in the league, the vanguard is slow moves, not fast.
 
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