Blue Hopium ONLY info

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So many thoughts this morning. Figured I'd post a few here and then I'll probably be scarce for a little while. This was an exhausting election, and I'm planning to focus on helping my immediate family have a fairly normal holiday season. My wife and daughter in particular are devastated this morning.

1. I was completely and totally wrong about how this election would go. I really thought America was just asking for a sane, competent alternative to the insanity of Trump and the incompetence of Biden. That's exactly what the Dems offered up. But America apparently prefers chaos and disruption to stability, emotional overreaction to logic and facts, malignant immorality and divisiveness to a message of unity. So be it. There are no excuses for this one. Trump is a fully known entity, and yet people chose him. Trump would have won easily even without the democracy-distorting Electoral College. Pretty much every state, group, and demographic other than college-educated women appears to have shifted heavily to Trump. This is clearly what America wants. Which means it's not the America I thought it was. But again, so be it.

2. I've been thinking about the pattern of wild swings and anti-incumbent sentiment we're seeing not just in the US, but also in comparable democracies like the UK and France. I really do wonder if, in some ways, this is the modern response to a world that no longer has massive global wars every few decades. Those wars, which basically defined Western history for centuries, had the effect of disrupting societies and changing power dynamics in radical and unpredictable ways. I wonder if the human spirit is just wired to want disruption and chaos after a certain amount of time, and in the absence of global wars, we're seeing that play out through the political process. If that's the case, I guess this is better than another world war. But it's very hard to understand the mindset of someone who would play Russian roulette with the country in the wild and almost certainly misguided hope that their personal situation might improve a tiny bit. How selfish and short-sighted does that person have to be?

3. I hope we can all find it in ourselves to keep helping the most marginalized people and groups in our community, even if the exit polling suggests many of them either voted for the pain that's likely coming their way, or just didn't vote at all. I have very little interest in continuing to use federal resources to help those people who are not disadvantaged and continue to support Trump, even though those tend to be the biggest "takers" in our current system. But the marginalized among us will need help regardless of what they thought about this election, and while it's hard to care much right now, I hope we can continue to be there for them as the federal government backs away.
 
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I see no evidence that we'll have good years in 2026 and 2028. Assuming best case scenario and Trump decides to willingly step down in 2028, we'll have JD Vance to contend with. MAGA loves him, and for all the talk about what a terrible VP candidate he was, his awkwardness and weirdness didn't have any negative effect at the ballot box. He'll be Trump 2.0, with less charisma and more intelligence.

Think about all the advantages we had in this election:

Supposedly a superior ground game.
More money.
Higher voter enthusiasm.
A strong finish the last two weeks while the other side made mistake after mistake.

None of it mattered. The Latino vote betrayed us, the black voters didn't show up (for a black candidate, no less), and that "hidden" Dobbs vote never materialized because when it's all said and done, Republican women still listen to their husbands and vote the way they demand they vote because they were conditioned to believe everything he believes.

And to make things worse, Trump's going to walk away with the popular vote. Look at the electoral map. More states are on the verge of tipping red in the future than tipping blue. For the first time in a decade, we have to admit that there are now more of them than there are of us. Even getting rid of the electoral college wouldn't have helped us last night. We're inexplicably outnumbered by a mass of people that support a 34 count felon who ended his last term by inciting an insurrection against our own government. And to top it off, he made GAINS with populations of our people that stand to lose the most when he takes over in January.

I'm just very disheartened. And to top it off, I have to head to work in an hour with basically a half an our of restless sleep under my belt.
Step 1, hope the economy feels bad or even appears bad at an individual level.
Step 2, lie like hell to blame those woes on your opponent
Step 3, buy a social media platform
Step 4, find any likable non-gay white guy that is fast on his feet when it comes to lying.

Then figure out some populist but centrist messaging that you can live with and go there a tiny bit.
 
There is no Trump 2.0 right now; JD isnt him. Like said above, Obama didn't translate...Trump's cult loves him, not the GOP.
 
So many thoughts this morning. Figured I'd post a few here and then I'll probably be scarce for a little while. This was an exhausting election, and I'm planning to focus on helping my immediate family have a fairly normal holiday season. My wife and daughter in particular are devastated this morning.

1. I was completely and totally wrong about how this election would go. I really thought America was just asking for a sane, competent alternative to the insanity of Trump and the incompetence of Biden. That's exactly what the Dems offered up. But America apparently prefers chaos and disruption to stability, emotional overreaction to logic and facts, malignant immorality and divisiveness to a message of unity. So be it. There are no excuses for this one. Trump is a fully known entity, and yet people chose him. Trump would have won easily even without the democracy-distorting Electoral College. Pretty much every state, group, and demographic other than college-educated women appears to have shifted heavily to Trump. This is clearly what America wants. Which means it's not the America I thought it was. But again, so be it.

2. I've been thinking about the pattern of wild swings and anti-incumbent sentiment we're seeing not just in the US, but also in comparable democracies like the UK and France. I really do wonder if, in some ways, this is the modern response to a world that no longer has massive global wars every few decades. Those wars, which basically defined Western history for centuries, had the effect of disrupting societies and changing power dynamics in radical and unpredictable ways. I wonder if the human spirit is just wired to want disruption and chaos after a certain amount of time, and in the absence of global wars, we're seeing that play out through the political process. If that's the case, I guess this is better than another world war. But it's very hard to understand the mindset of someone who would play Russian roulette with the country in the wild and almost certainly misguided hope that their personal situation might improve a tiny bit. How selfish and short-sighted does that person have to be?

3. I hope we can all find it in ourselves to keep helping the most marginalized people and groups in our community, even if the exit polling suggests many of them either voted for the pain that's likely coming their way, or just didn't vote at all. I have very little interest in continuing to use federal resources to help those people who are not disadvantaged and continue to support Trump, even though those tend to be the biggest "takers" in our current system. But the marginalized among us will need help regardless of what they thought about this election, and while it's hard to care much right now, I hope we can continue to be there for them as the federal government backs away.
Life goes on and in 4 years the Democrats will have a good shot to win back the White House. It’s unclear whether any future Republican will be able to expand the party and grow the tent the way Donald Trump has. And if not, next election is anybody’s ball game.

Much like the Democrats are still searching for their next Obama, Republicans may be trying to recreate the Trump electoral magic for a long time.

That being said, Democrats badly need some better candidates too. Harris did better than Biden would’ve, but that’s an extremely low bar. No one was excited to vote for Harris as evidenced by her 1% support in 2020 and getting zero primary votes this year. The Democrats were way too dependent on strictly TDS to get people to the polls instead of people wanting to vote FOR Kamala.
 
I see no evidence that we'll have good years in 2026 and 2028. Assuming best case scenario and Trump decides to willingly step down in 2028, we'll have JD Vance to contend with. MAGA loves him, and for all the talk about what a terrible VP candidate he was, his awkwardness and weirdness didn't have any negative effect at the ballot box. He'll be Trump 2.0, with less charisma and more intelligence.

Think about all the advantages we had in this election:

Supposedly a superior ground game.
More money.
Higher voter enthusiasm.
A strong finish the last two weeks while the other side made mistake after mistake.

None of it mattered. The Latino vote betrayed us, the black voters didn't show up (for a black candidate, no less), and that "hidden" Dobbs vote never materialized because when it's all said and done, Republican women still listen to their husbands and vote the way they demand they vote because they were conditioned to believe everything he believes.

And to make things worse, Trump's going to walk away with the popular vote. Look at the electoral map. More states are on the verge of tipping red in the future than tipping blue. For the first time in a decade, we have to admit that there are now more of them than there are of us. Even getting rid of the electoral college wouldn't have helped us last night. We're inexplicably outnumbered by a mass of people that support a 34 count felon who ended his last term by inciting an insurrection against our own government. And to top it off, he made GAINS with populations of our people that stand to lose the most when he takes over in January.

I'm just very disheartened. And to top it off, I have to head to work in an hour with basically a half an out of restless sleep under my belt.
I don’t think the dynamics of the states have changed at all. The final vote tally is waaaaaaay lower than 2020. Trump got about the same number of votes he did 4 years ago. Kamala just got less than Biden. People decided Kamala was not enough of a change from Biden and Trump was Trump so they just sat the election out. With fresh candidates the map can pretty rapidly shift back. Also mid-terms are always bad for POTUS’ party because people realize they didn’t fix the shit they said they would.
 
They never were able to make this enough of a referendum on Trump. Right or wrong, the Biden administration has become pretty damn unpopular. People perceive that the economy is bad because of the post-Covid inflation and resulting rises in grocery prices - let's be honest, if you're in an economic position such that your main worry is the price of groceries, you don't give a damn about GDP or how well the stock market's doing. There've been some shocking stories of late showing that between 50-75% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck and almost a third have less than $1000 in savings. If these are actually true, well... no wonder.

Sure, there's a lot of willful ignorance in there, but the main point is that dems' messaging never adequately shifted the electoral narrative to how insane and chaotic Trump is/was; at least not enough to overcome the negative sentiment towards Biden/Harris and the current consumer prices landscape.

I don't know where they go from here, but the reasons for their losses among young men, black men, and Latinos absolutely must be elucidated. And I don't know that I'll be looking to current Democratic party leaders for encouragement/inspiration. It's glaringly obvious they've missed the mark here.
 
I don’t think the dynamics of the states have changed at all. The final vote tally is waaaaaaay lower than 2020. Trump got about the same number of votes he did 4 years ago. Kamala just got less than Biden. People decided Kamala was not enough of a change from Biden and Trump was Trump so they just sat the election out. With fresh candidates the map can pretty rapidly shift back. Also mid-terms are always bad for POTUS’ party because people realize they didn’t fix the shit they said they would.
We don't have final vote tallies. You can't compare 2020 final numbers to 2024 day after numbers. California, alone, is likely to add another 7 million votes.
 
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