College Basketball 2025-26 season thread

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aGDevil2k said:
I don't pull for Carolina, basically ever. But I hope y'all beat the hell out of State this year
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I tell you what, and this has been true for me going back about 15 years or so now since I was in college, but on days where Duke plays NC State, I become just about the biggest Duke fan that ever Duke fan'd. Absolutely positively loathe that POS school in Raleigh!
 
SnoopRob said:
Folks who understand that specific wins/losses are often due to events outside the direct control of the teams involved and that efficiency metrics are typically far more predictive than mere W/L records.
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Yes I understand this, but it wasn’t more predictive when UNC played UK in Rupp and their metrics are built on the backs of dreadful teams.
 
Y'all are crazy, I pull for State over dook in basketball.

For State, most wins, even big ones, are temporary high points in an otherwise disappointing season.

For dook, losses are upsetting and losses to State typically annoy them more than most.

Gotta go for the greater good there.
 
Enigma94 said:
Yes I understand this, but it wasn’t more predictive when UNC played UK in Rupp and their metrics are built on the backs of dreadful teams.
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We won by 3 and single-game outcomes between fairly equal teams are often outlier events.

If you use KP or, really, any other advanced metric system to predict single games, you'll often end up on the wrong side of the outcome.

But, in aggregate, they typically work better than most other ways of evaluating teams.
 
SnoopRob said:
We won by 3 and single-game outcomes between fairly equal teams are often outlier events.

If you use KP or, really, any other advanced metric system to predict single games, you'll often end up on the wrong side of the outcome.

But, in aggregate, they typically work better than most other ways of evaluating teams.
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It’s not just a single game. We beat better teams overall than them, the only reason they had a better metric is from destroying horrible teams. So despite the metrics telling us they have been better, they’ve gotten their ass beat anytime they’ve played a good team. So it hasn’t been predictive so far in any game that matters.

Of course this is the age old discussion about the metrics. The Big West openly talked about beating up on bad teams OOC to bump their numbers to get more teams in the tournament.
 
Enigma94 said:
It’s not just a single game. We beat better teams overall than them, the only reason they had a better metric is from destroying horrible teams. So despite the metrics telling us they have been better, they’ve gotten their ass beat anytime they’ve played a good team. So it hasn’t been predictive so far in any game that matters.

Of course this is the age old discussion about the metrics. The Big West openly talked about beating up on bad teams OOC to bump their numbers to get more teams in the tournament.
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UK has beaten two top 30 teams and every loss they have is to a top 25 team (top 20 outside of us). Add in whupping up on some lower rated teams and that's a recipe for the metrics outperforming their record. (They're much like us last year and the opposite of us this year, in that regard.)

Yes, metrics can be gamed to an extent and that has to be taken into consideration. But the general idea that UNC and UK are fairly equivalent teams, which is what the metrics show, is correct.

If it makes you feel better, they're behind us according to KP now that their loss to Alabama is factored in.
 
Calheel said:
Duke down to FSU 37-33 in 1st half. A Duke loss (which is not very likely) would mitigate some of the SMU stank.
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Not for me it wouldn't. We absolutely shit the bed in Dallas and that cannot happen if this staff wants to keep their jobs.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Not for me it wouldn't. We absolutely shit the bed in Dallas and that cannot happen if this staff wants to keep their jobs.
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It absolutely can happen.

What can't happen is for UNC to do that repeatedly. If we finish in first the ACC and get a 1 seed, Hubert is fine. If we finish middle of the pack and are a bubble team, then Hubert is fired.

Were Duke to lose, it would be a big help in the regular season race.
 
Calheel said:
It absolutely can happen.

What can't happen is for UNC to do that repeatedly. If we finish in first the ACC and get a 1 seed, Hubert is fine. If we finish middle of the pack and are a bubble team, then Hubert is fired.

Were Duke to lose, it would be a big help in the regular season race.
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What i mean is that we will lose games to reasonably good teams. We cant afford losses to not good teams.
 
Calheel said:
It absolutely can happen.

What can't happen is for UNC to do that repeatedly. If we finish in first the ACC and get a 1 seed, Hubert is fine. If we finish middle of the pack and are a bubble team, then Hubert is fired.
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The real nightmare scenario is that we finish 3rd-5th in the ACC while consistently being almost but not quite really in the race, lose in the ACCT semifinals, and then get a 5-6 seed in the NCAAT & go out in either a competitive R32 or blowout S16 game.

That's the kind of outcome that can convince some folks we're making progress and HD deserves another season while convincing others he's still failing at the job and should go.

The worst case scenario is a "he did just enough(./?)" outcome that simply pushes nearly everyone further into their current camps.
 
SnoopRob said:
The real nightmare scenario is that we finish 3rd-5th in the ACC while consistently being almost but not quite really in the race, lose in the ACCT semifinals, and then get a 5-6 seed in the NCAAT & go out in either a competitive R32 or blowout S16 game.

That's the kind of outcome that can convince some folks we're making progress and HD deserves another season while convincing others he's still failing at the job and should go.

The worst case scenario is a "he did just enough(./?)" outcome that simply pushes nearly everyone further into their current camps.
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Let’s get back to talking about Duke-FSU on the general thread. I apologize for my detour.
 
Heelsandeers said:
Your takeaway from that game was SMU is not a good team?

Worse teams beat ranked team at home almost every single night
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I dont have a takeaway other than this team has zero margin for error. I was flying and didn't see the game. I've watched zero SMU basketball and very little UNC basketball. All I see and know about this team and this season are final scores.
 
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