CURRENT EVENTS - DECEMBER

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20% of US Physicians in the US were born abroad Thats a big number
25,000 RNs successfully got VISAs to work in the UN in 2024
Beyond that the base level workers in Hospitals, Nursing Homes etc seem to my eye to be heavily populated with immigrants
So yea Health care a big deal for immigrants
Now Finesse's statement about core industries needing less and folks seems logical-Except the key lowest level jobs. Meat plants, Crop pickers
And last but not least our large comfort based Service industries I guess Hampton Inn and Lanscapers will just have to raise prices-to pay more
Construction , painters,-wow
 
finesse said:
Other than the social burden of eldercare, I don't have it very clear in my head what the dangers of a decreasing population is. Neither farming, manufacturing nor construction require the same numbers of bodies to support their current rates of production. With a declining domestic need, that alone should support increased export possibilities. What am I missing?
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1. It's not a decreasing population per se. For instance, I don't know if the US actually lost people during COVID, but one could imagine a world in which it did. That wouldn't be a danger to the economy. The issue is when the birth rate falls below the death rate.

2. Other than elder care? Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play? It's more money that needs to be spent caring for unproductive people, with fewer productive people to bear the load. In addition, elders can crowd out medical care for younger people unless the society has excess capacity in health care or care is rationed by age.

3. you are right that productivity gains can be high enough to overcome those problems. I don't know how high they have to be, though. It might be at a level that is really hard to achieve.

4. Exports aren't really a function of domestic population. For one thing, the declining population hits both sides of the ledger: demand falls, but so does labor supply. Society won't collapse, but it's hard to grow.

Consider the economic success of the Soviet Union in the 1920s-30s, and then China from 1980 or so to 2010. They didn't grow because they had good economies per se. They were not efficient. What they did was mobilize what economists call "factor inputs" -- mostly labor. In Russia, lots of people were outside the workforce, and certainly outside the industrial workforce. Not so in the Soviet Union. Everyone had to work. So GDP went up, even though productivity had not increased. The same was even more true of China, I think.

Well, what goes up can go down. Decrease in factor inputs requires a lot of productivity gains to keep economic growth positive.

5. All that said, I don't think it's the catastrophe that people sometimes suggest. It was worse decades ago. As you note, in a tech society, arguably labor is less of a constraint.
 
Fwiw, I considered number two but considered that, while there would be some indeterminate lag time, it is self correcting as the elderly die. There is also a considerable lessening across the board of health , education and welfare needs, among others for the first 18 years of nonproductivity as an offset. Not saying that I'm right and you're wrong. Just saying that wasn't the oversight you indicated you thought it was.
 
finesse said:
Fwiw, I considered number two but considered that, while there would be some indeterminate lag time, it is self correcting as the elderly die. There is also a considerable lessening across the board of health , education and welfare needs, among others for the first 18 years of nonproductivity as an offset. Not saying that I'm right and you're wrong. Just saying that wasn't the oversight you indicated you thought it was.
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I didn't mean to come across as snotty.
 


It is true the DoJ brought these charges and credit to the investigators and prosecutors for doing so.

That said, it might be more accurate to note that the Biden DoJ ran the investigation and began bringing these charges (as they announced in 2024):


U.S. Attorney Announces Federal Charges Against 47 Defendants in $250 Million Feeding Our Future Fraud Scheme​


Nonprofit Feeding Our Future and 200+ Meal Sites in Minnesota Perpetrated the Largest COVID-19 Fraud Scheme in the Nation
The Department of Justice announced today federal criminal charges against 47 defendants for their alleged roles in a $250 million fraud scheme that exploited a federally-funded child nutrition program during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“These indictments, alleging the largest pandemic relief fraud scheme charged to date, underscore the Department of Justice’s sustained commitment to combating pandemic fraud and holding accountable those who perpetrate it,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “In partnership with agencies across government, the Justice Department will continue to bring to justice those who have exploited the pandemic for personal gain and stolen from American taxpayers.”
 
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