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“… Oil prices have fallen to $62.49 a barrel, down about 13% since Trump’s early April tariff blitz. That price is roughly equivalent to about $45 in 2015 dollars—below the average price that sent the oil industry into a painful downturn that year.U.S. Drillers Say Peak Shale Has Arrived
Lower oil prices are expected to precipitate a decrease in crude output that won’t easily be reversed
—> https://www.wsj.com/business/energy...7c?st=eiT2ZP&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink
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The U.S. is on track to see crude oil production modestly increase in 2025—in part because of growth in fields offshore—before declining next year by 1% to 13.33 million barrels a day, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That would mark the first year-on-year decrease in roughly a decade, outside the Covid-19 pandemic.
“We believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices,” Travis Stice, chief executive of Permian driller Diamondback, said in a letter to shareholders last week.
Trump had promised that his administration would bring a new dawn for America’s frackers by killing regulations and allowing them to build new pipelines. But even before he took office, U.S. oil production was on track to flatten out and fall by the end of the decade. …”
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Trump urging his buddies in OPEC to increase drilling to keep gas prices low has other impacts he doesn’t seem to grasp or just doesn’t care about. The weird mirage of American “energy independence” has been that even though we do produce enough oil to be genuinely self-sufficient in some years just based on gross barrels produced and gross barrels consumed, we actually export a significant portion of our product and import other oil that is better suited to our refining capacity. And that exported product is pretty price sensitive … there is a reason the Big Oil boom/bust cycle is counter-cyclical.
“On an inflation-adjusted basis, current prices are at amongst the lowest they’ve ever been,” Paul McKinney, CEO of Permian driller Ring Energy, said in an interview. Prices should be around $85 a barrel to encourage companies to drill, he said. ….”
