CURRENT EVENTS May 22 - July 5

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From what I’ve read, this could be another turn of the screw in having Mexico fully embrace being a narcostate … but we’ll have to see. The judiciary was already widely seen as corrupt and this is supposed to be a reform. This includes electing/replacing their Supreme Court.


“… Following a controversial constitutional change that the outgoing president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, rammed through Congress in September, Mexicans are expected to go to the polls on Sunday and deliver an unprecedented vote to replace half the federal bench — 881 federal judges in all, including the nine justices on the Supreme Court — plus hundreds more in state courts. The other half of the judiciary will be replaced in a second round of voting in 2027.

The process is being sold as a mechanism to clean out an intensely corrupt justice system and bring more democracy to Mexico. But given the ruling Morena party’s overwhelming popularity among Mexican voters, the election will serve mostly to bring the judiciary in line with Morena’s interests.

Most of the roughly 3,400 candidates for federal judgeships were chosen by Morena — including about a third of those vying for positions on the new Judicial Discipline Tribunal, which will have the power to remove judges at all levels. Befuddled voters facing ballots with hundreds of names will probably take their cues from candidates’ known allegiances. Morena is already mobilizing its political machine to elect friendly judges. Members of the party have posted lists of preferred candidates on the internet — to help voters make up their minds.…”
 
nycfan said:


From what I’ve read, this could be another turn of the screw in having Mexico fully embrace being a narcostate
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I know nothing about this. Could you unpack this statement? Are you saying that these elections are going to push Mexico into narco-stateness or that it will combat that. I'm not sure what "turn of the screw" means in this context.
 
superrific said:
I know nothing about this. Could you unpack this statement? Are you saying that these elections are going to push Mexico into narco-stateness or that it will combat that. I'm not sure what "turn of the screw" means in this context.
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Turnout is expected to be low and actively suppressed in areas suffering the violence of the Sinola Cartel civil war — in the areas that are effectively controlled by cartels, the fear is that only cartel-backed judicial candidates will have a chance to win, while on the broader scale the governing party in Mexico is likely to capture most of the judiciary, replacing corrupt judges with probably equally corrupt judges who will work with the party. So this could undermine any checks on the governing party which has significant alleged ties to organized crime in Mexico.

Electing judges is seen as anti-democratic outside the United States because politics overwhelms qualifications in judicial elections and undermines blind justice.
 
altmin said:
deadline.com

Diddy Pardon: Donald Trump “Certainly” Would Consider Clemency For Sean Combs As Old Pal Faces Sex-Trafficking Trial & Life Behind Bars

Diddy's sex-trafficking trial could all come down to Donald Trump. as POTUS made clear-ish in the Oval Office Friday.
deadline.com deadline.com

Donald Trump “Certainly” Would Consider Clemency For Sean Combs As Old Pal Faces Sex-Trafficking Trial & Life Behind Bars​

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He may consider it, but I doubt even Trump is dumb enough to do it.
 
Paine said:
Perhaps, but it’s the truth. Those papers have always engaged in that kind of activity re: Latin America. I’m not particularly concerned with sounding inflammatory on this issue when it has been a parade of inflammatory rhetoric from the interests of capital ever since AMLO’s election. Their disdain for working and poor Mexicans is gross. They can govern themselves.
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I was more referring to the idea that nycfan has "fallen victim to it." In my experience with her, she's pretty savvy and doesn't fall victim to much. I should also add that a person who easily falls victim to propaganda would not be a very good transactional attorney. Literally her job is to make sure her clients don't fall victim to optimism, flim-flam, misrepresentations, etc.
 
altmin said:
Polls closing in Poland soon. Huge trial for democracy in this outcome.
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This is the one who needs to win but this is crazy early:

Despite the absolutely minimal projected margin of victory in the exit poll, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski declares himself the winner.

“We’ve won!”, he starts his speech in Warsaw.
 
Paine said:
Savvy educated liberals aren’t immune to propaganda.
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While that's obviously true, it's also true that people of our generation have ample experience with claims about "propaganda." At various times, the horrors of the Khmer Rouge, Castro, Ortega and Chavez were considered propaganda, according to the left. That's one reason people reacted so strongly when Bernie continued to defend the Cuban health care system. We've been through this before, and we don't want it.

I would not go straight to "you've been propagandized" as an explanation for a single post.
 

Exit poll: 70,000-100,000 votes’ difference between candidates​

If you’re wondering just how tight this election is, the two exit polls say it’s between 70,000 to 100,000 votes.

In a country of 37 million, with 28.3 million eligible voters.
 
Before the exit polls dropped, I told you about all the speculations on turnout.

For what it’s worth, the Ipsos exit poll says it will end up being 72.8%, which would be the highest turnout for a presidential election ever (beating 68.23% in 1995).
 

Exit poll data - snap analysis​


Jakub Krupa
I have looked at the underlying data behind the Ipsos exit poll and it laids bare the extraordinary level of divisions within the Polish society.

While women voted for pro-European centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski (54 to 46%), men sided with Karol Nawrocki by, erm, the same ratio.

When you look at the education levels, Trzaskowski came first among those with a bachelor degree or higher (63% to 37%), but Nawrocki won among all other groups.

And so on. In almost every single category, you have extremely polarising results.

Higher level executives? Trzaskowski win 65% to 35%. Company owners? Trzaskowski again, by 57% to 43%.

But farmers? 79% to 21% for Nawrocki. Employees? 68% to 32% for Nawrocki.

Finally, in the buildup to the vote, there was a lot of chat about vote transfers from other candidates, particularly the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen who came third in the first round, with 13.47% of the both.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-candidates-slawomir-mentzen-adrian-zandberg
 
Paine said:
I’m well aware of the “concerns” expressed by Biden’s ambassador. You’re missing my point about propaganda entirely by presenting his word, or that of Mayer Brown, as a counter to my posts.

Again, these are concerns about the stability of American global financial power cloaked in critiques of democracy and authoritarianism.

There are legitimate arguments to be made against the judicial reforms, but the arguments coming from sources that wield them for purposes of American power are not credible. American liberal consensus does not equal truth and objectivity.

Nor is elite “concern” objective truth. Liberals have a bad habit of not recognizing this, and it has bitten them repeatedly. These are not neutral authorities.

My point is that citing Biden’s ambassador or Mayer Brown as reasons to oppose Morena’s judicial reform just proves the critique is coming from elite interests. The ambassador represents U.S. geopolitical power, and Mayer Brown is a corporate law firm that defends investor rights not democratic control. Of course they’re “concerned.” That’s not objective analysis, it’s class interest.

Treating those institutions as neutral just hides the fact that what’s really being defended is the existing order: elite courts, foreign capital, and U.S. influence over Mexico’s political system. The U.S. ambassador and a white-shoe law firm don’t need to lie, they just see the world through a lens shaped by American hegemony and corporate power.

That’s how elite ideology reproduces itself: not through obvious manipulation but through the assumption that elite views are neutral truth above ideology.
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I linked to Mayer Brown website because I was in a hurry. The point is that the Inter-American Council of Human Rights is concerned. That's an arm of the OAS, currently led by a leftist foreign minister from Uruguay. It's not about class interests.

What you've provided is a sort of stale, generalized critique of ideology. Yes, we know that's often the dynamic with "elite" opinion, but that's a tremendous over-simplification. The fact is that these "democratic reforms" in Latin America frequently, though not invariably, lead to leftist oppression.

I'd prefer to get CR's take on this before jumping to conclusions. Not that he's all-knowing or unbiased, but he is usually knowledgeable.
 

Late poll: Nawrocki in lead​

Plot twist: Karol Nawrocki has now gone into lead in the late poll by Ipsos, as reported by Polsat.

50.7% for Nawrocki, 49.3% for Trzaskowski.
 

Late poll plot twist - snap analysis​

This remains still too close to call, but that’s a big, big plot twist.

Just to help you understand what’s going on: the late poll is essentially the exit poll, updated with partial results from 50% of polling stations.

Some PO lawmakers appearing on TV over the last hour or so kind of implied that was expected as the first polling stations to report are usually smaller and rural, so naturally PiS-leaning, but it will all change again when the larger polling stations report their numbers.

Having said that, that’s a big swing.

We will get another update – a new late, late poll - around 1am, with results from 90% of polling stations.
 
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