CURRENT EVENTS May 22 - July 5

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Exit poll: 70,000-100,000 votes’ difference between candidates​

If you’re wondering just how tight this election is, the two exit polls say it’s between 70,000 to 100,000 votes.

In a country of 37 million, with 28.3 million eligible voters.
 
Before the exit polls dropped, I told you about all the speculations on turnout.

For what it’s worth, the Ipsos exit poll says it will end up being 72.8%, which would be the highest turnout for a presidential election ever (beating 68.23% in 1995).
 

Exit poll data - snap analysis​


Jakub Krupa
I have looked at the underlying data behind the Ipsos exit poll and it laids bare the extraordinary level of divisions within the Polish society.

While women voted for pro-European centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski (54 to 46%), men sided with Karol Nawrocki by, erm, the same ratio.

When you look at the education levels, Trzaskowski came first among those with a bachelor degree or higher (63% to 37%), but Nawrocki won among all other groups.

And so on. In almost every single category, you have extremely polarising results.

Higher level executives? Trzaskowski win 65% to 35%. Company owners? Trzaskowski again, by 57% to 43%.

But farmers? 79% to 21% for Nawrocki. Employees? 68% to 32% for Nawrocki.

Finally, in the buildup to the vote, there was a lot of chat about vote transfers from other candidates, particularly the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen who came third in the first round, with 13.47% of the both.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-candidates-slawomir-mentzen-adrian-zandberg
 
Paine said:
I’m well aware of the “concerns” expressed by Biden’s ambassador. You’re missing my point about propaganda entirely by presenting his word, or that of Mayer Brown, as a counter to my posts.

Again, these are concerns about the stability of American global financial power cloaked in critiques of democracy and authoritarianism.

There are legitimate arguments to be made against the judicial reforms, but the arguments coming from sources that wield them for purposes of American power are not credible. American liberal consensus does not equal truth and objectivity.

Nor is elite “concern” objective truth. Liberals have a bad habit of not recognizing this, and it has bitten them repeatedly. These are not neutral authorities.

My point is that citing Biden’s ambassador or Mayer Brown as reasons to oppose Morena’s judicial reform just proves the critique is coming from elite interests. The ambassador represents U.S. geopolitical power, and Mayer Brown is a corporate law firm that defends investor rights not democratic control. Of course they’re “concerned.” That’s not objective analysis, it’s class interest.

Treating those institutions as neutral just hides the fact that what’s really being defended is the existing order: elite courts, foreign capital, and U.S. influence over Mexico’s political system. The U.S. ambassador and a white-shoe law firm don’t need to lie, they just see the world through a lens shaped by American hegemony and corporate power.

That’s how elite ideology reproduces itself: not through obvious manipulation but through the assumption that elite views are neutral truth above ideology.
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I linked to Mayer Brown website because I was in a hurry. The point is that the Inter-American Council of Human Rights is concerned. That's an arm of the OAS, currently led by a leftist foreign minister from Uruguay. It's not about class interests.

What you've provided is a sort of stale, generalized critique of ideology. Yes, we know that's often the dynamic with "elite" opinion, but that's a tremendous over-simplification. The fact is that these "democratic reforms" in Latin America frequently, though not invariably, lead to leftist oppression.

I'd prefer to get CR's take on this before jumping to conclusions. Not that he's all-knowing or unbiased, but he is usually knowledgeable.
 

Late poll: Nawrocki in lead​

Plot twist: Karol Nawrocki has now gone into lead in the late poll by Ipsos, as reported by Polsat.

50.7% for Nawrocki, 49.3% for Trzaskowski.
 

Late poll plot twist - snap analysis​

This remains still too close to call, but that’s a big, big plot twist.

Just to help you understand what’s going on: the late poll is essentially the exit poll, updated with partial results from 50% of polling stations.

Some PO lawmakers appearing on TV over the last hour or so kind of implied that was expected as the first polling stations to report are usually smaller and rural, so naturally PiS-leaning, but it will all change again when the larger polling stations report their numbers.

Having said that, that’s a big swing.

We will get another update – a new late, late poll - around 1am, with results from 90% of polling stations.
 

If late poll holds, we will work to bring down Tusk's government, senior PiS MP says​

If you’re still digesting what this could mean for Poland if these late poll numbers get confirmed, let me help you.

A senior PiS lawmaker and former education minister Przemysław Czarnek just told TV Republika:

“If these polls hold and Karol Nawrocki becomes president-elect tomorrow morning … I can reassure you that maybe not starting tomorrow, but from Tuesday, we will begin very energetic work in order to give the Polish people another gift – the end of Tusk’s government.”
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He suggested the Law and Justice party would approach some government MPs to offer them “a longer perspective of serving Poland over the next years” in a hope to get them to deflect and form a new right-wing coalition in the parliament.
 
Translated: if nawrocki wins, we will go back to dismantling democracy in Poland and criminalizing homosexuality.
 
Paine said:
Super, saying “the IACHR is part of the OAS, and the OAS is currently chaired by a leftist” is like saying NATO can’t be pro-war if the Dutch run a committee. You know better, I’d hope.

The OAS has a long track record of aligning with U.S. interests and opposing left-populist governments in Latin America. A single progressive diplomat at the helm doesn’t make it class-neutral.

Saying my critique is “stale” or “generalized” is also not an argument, it’s just a rhetorical deflection.

You invoke leftist “oppression” in the abstract, but I’m talking about a concrete democratic reform in Mexico. The fact that elites and U.S.-aligned institutions oppose it is part of my wider point.

I have no reason to think CR has any more expertise on this issue than I do, but you’ll likely be more amenable to his view on the subject since it’ll align with elite concern.
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I have reason to think that he has more experience on this issue than I do. While the OAS has its neoliberal moments, the council on human rights is a genuinely progressive organization. In any event, I don't know anything about these judicial reforms or the possibility of corruption, so I don't have anything to add other than an explanation of why some of us recoil a bit at the accusation of propaganda. Not because it's wrong, per se, but because it's incomplete.
 
Seems like nearly every democracy in the Western world is under siege by right-wing, non-college educated, embittered white men of all ages who keep trying to elect blowhard, reactionary authoritarian bigots because they're scared of darker-skinned immigrants, LGBTQ people actually being allowed to have a public life, and liberated, self-reliant women. Dark days for democracy, diversity, and any attempts to create a more enlightened society.
 
The left is not helped in Poland by the fact that the president has been blocking all the things they were voted in for. Like the US, the public has a quick reflex to blame the party in power for lack of results and not the ones blocking progress.

People are generally pretty fucking stupid.
 

looking SUPER bad in Poland. will come down to urban turnout

Sign of right-wing alliance to challege Tusk at 2027 parliamentary election​

One thing to note from both exit polls is that Nawrocki is projected to have won over almost 90% (!) of the people who voted for the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation party (“Konfederacja”), who came third in the first round vote two weeks ago.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-candidates-slawomir-mentzen-adrian-zandberg
If PiS takes the presidency, as the late poll suggests, the two parties could combine again – formally or not - ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election to form a new right-wing coalition to challenge Donald Tusk’s politically diverse and fragile government.

One to watch.
 
think this one is over. :(

Late late poll: Nawrocki widens lead to 2pp​

Pollster Ipsos, working for three of Poland’s largest broadcasters, has just updated it’s late late poll which includes some partial official results, and it shows an even bigger Nawrocki lead: 51% to 49%.
 

Multiple people set on fire in attack during Colorado pro-Israeli march, police say​

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www.cnn.com


“A man reportedly set people on fire in Boulder, Colorado, leaving multiple individuals injured, the city’s police chief said, as people gathered for a ‘peaceful’ pro-Israeli demonstration.

A suspect is in custody and police are investigating what FBI officials immediately called “a targeted terror attack” — though the local authorities said it was too early to define the attack.

… The man threw bottles that apparently contained flammable liquid that hit the ground and exploded in flames, multiple law enforcement officials briefed on the investigation told CNN, noting the exact number of bottles was unclear….”
 
nycfan said:

Multiple people set on fire in attack during Colorado pro-Israeli march, police say​

Loading…

www.cnn.com


“A man reportedly set people on fire in Boulder, Colorado, leaving multiple individuals injured, the city’s police chief said, as people gathered for a ‘peaceful’ pro-Israeli demonstration.

A suspect is in custody and police are investigating what FBI officials immediately called “a targeted terror attack” — though the local authorities said it was too early to define the attack.

… The man threw bottles that apparently contained flammable liquid that hit the ground and exploded in flames, multiple law enforcement officials briefed on the investigation told CNN, noting the exact number of bottles was unclear….”
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