CURRENT EVENTS - May 8-11

Kier Starmer bending over backwards to appeal to the far-right, because they are sooooooo likely to reward him. I swear he has been the biggest give to the revitalization of the Tory party from their self-immolation. You think Harris reached too much to the center; Starmer has been leaping over it to outright burn the labour diehards. He has cut disability payments, ended heating bill support for th epoor and now has announced he will not allow any more visas for retirement home workers, which have been notoriously low paying jobs that have relied on immigrants to keep running. "Hey Brexit near broke this country and led to em getting power, I know I'll double down on the xenophobia...."


The UK risks becoming an “island of strangers” without tougher immigration policies, Keir Starmer has said, as official estimates show there could be 100,000 fewer migrants every year under new policies outlined on Monday.

The prime minister said his government would “take back control of our borders” and close the book on a “squalid chapter” of rising inward migration as he unveiled a radical crackdown.


He was speaking at a Downing Street press conference before the publication of an immigration white paper that set out details of how the government intends to introduce restrictions across all forms of visas to the UK.

A new Home Office assessment showing the impact of changes to study and work visas and the introduction of English language tests said there would be about 100,000 fewer people entering the UK. It suggests net migration could fall to 300,000 by 2029.

Net migration, the difference between the number of people moving to the UK and the number leaving, was 728,000 in the 12 months to June 2024. Under the previous Conservative government, the figure soared to more than 900,000.

Starmer said at a Downing Street press conference on Monday that he wanted levels of immigration to have fallen significantly by the end of this parliament, without setting a numerical target.

He said: “Nations depend on rules, fair rules. Sometimes they are written down, often they are not, but either way, they give shape to our values, guide us towards our rights, of course, but also our responsibilities, the obligations we owe to each other.

“In a diverse nation like ours, and I celebrate that, these rules become even more important. Without them, we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.
 
Kier Starmer bending over backwards to appeal to the far-right, because they are sooooooo likely to reward him. I swear he has been the biggest give to the revitalization of the Tory party from their self-immolation. You think Harris reached too much to the center; Starmer has been leaping over it to outright burn the labour diehards. He has cut disability payments, ended heating bill support for th epoor and now has announced he will not allow any more visas for retirement home workers, which have been notoriously low paying jobs that have relied on immigrants to keep running.


The UK risks becoming an “island of strangers” without tougher immigration policies, Keir Starmer has said, as official estimates show there could be 100,000 fewer migrants every year under new policies outlined on Monday.

The prime minister said his government would “take back control of our borders” and close the book on a “squalid chapter” of rising inward migration as he unveiled a radical crackdown.


He was speaking at a Downing Street press conference before the publication of an immigration white paper that set out details of how the government intends to introduce restrictions across all forms of visas to the UK.

A new Home Office assessment showing the impact of changes to study and work visas and the introduction of English language tests said there would be about 100,000 fewer people entering the UK. It suggests net migration could fall to 300,000 by 2029.

Net migration, the difference between the number of people moving to the UK and the number leaving, was 728,000 in the 12 months to June 2024. Under the previous Conservative government, the figure soared to more than 900,000.

Starmer said at a Downing Street press conference on Monday that he wanted levels of immigration to have fallen significantly by the end of this parliament, without setting a numerical target.

He said: “Nations depend on rules, fair rules. Sometimes they are written down, often they are not, but either way, they give shape to our values, guide us towards our rights, of course, but also our responsibilities, the obligations we owe to each other.

“In a diverse nation like ours, and I celebrate that, these rules become even more important. Without them, we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.
His abysmal leadership only strengthens Reform UK. The Tories and Labour are both discredited among the eyes of much of the population. Sound familiar?
 


Amazing.

I do want to note that the EO on drug pricing as of right now is basically just telling corporations to lower costs… which he can’t do. I’m not sure what the endgame is (maybe Medicare negotiations?) but apparently they’ve already punted any action on this 6 months down the road.

If they do end up regulating/eliminating the pharmacy benefit managers (who are middlemen in every sense of the word) that would be a net positive. But the order is so vague there’s no telling what’s going to come of it.
 
His abysmal leadership only strengthens Reform UK. The Tories and Labour are both discredited among the eyes of much of the population. Sound familiar?
Starmer is committing political malpractice consistent with a decade of UK political ineptitude.

Trump may be Ringling Brothers, but UK politics is the circus that sets up in the parking lot of the bombed out 1980s mall. Astounding that Starmer thinks becoming effectively a wishy washy Tory PM is the route to public support. When Farage, or his lackey, takes the PM gig by 2029 I’m sure Labour will be shocked more centrist Tories didn’t vote for them.
 
His abysmal leadership only strengthens Reform UK. The Tories and Labour are both discredited among the eyes of much of the population. Sound familiar?
Reform UK authored Brexit. Don't see much future for them except as an annoyance. But I don't know much about British politics.
 
Reform UK authored Brexit. Don't see much future for them except as an annoyance. But I don't know much about British politics.
May be anomalous, may be a canary like in Italy, France, etc.


“Nigel Farage's Reform UK has made big gains in English local elections, cementing it as a prime challenger to Britain's traditional main parties.

It won 677 of around 1,600 seats contested on Thursday across a clutch of mainly Tory-held councils last contested in 2021.
Reform seized control of eight authorities from the Conservatives, including former strongholds Kent and Staffordshire.

The party has also won control of Doncaster, the only council Labour was defending, and Durham, where Labour was previously the largest party.”
 
Reform UK authored Brexit. Don't see much future for them except as an annoyance. But I don't know much about British politics.
It would take a collapse of either Labour or the Conservatives as a viable party for Reform to gain that status. The issue is, the leadership of both the Tories and Labour is cartoonishly incompetent. I wouldn’t count out some sort of shift of power.

Reform did quite well in recent local elections. It’s entirely possible that the Tories could be resigned to the status of the Liberal Democrats as Reform rises. Starmer and Labour are only fueling the rise by priming the public to be anti-migrant.
 
Not too hijack the thread too much, but isn't your post indicative of a huge problem in American politics, whether it's true or false. I mean, I think the US had nothing to do with India/Pakistan, don't know what you're talking about re: Russia/Ukraine, China trade pause is an admission of failure, and idk a hostage release.

But let's say you're right about all of them. Isn't this a bonkers way to do politics, rating presidential performance over an absurdly and arbitrarily short period of time? A good weekend is what we would say about golfers or baseball players. That anyone thinks to think about it politically seems nuts. It's what gives us a politics geared to winning the next news cycle.

Here's the thing: every single principled position you say you support, like deficit reduction, requires long term thinking. Without planning, deficit reduction becomes the DOGE chaos and usually gets paired with some tax handout that undoes any of the purported benefit. And you can't do planning when your political strategy is day to day news cycle grabbing. This is why the GOP was left exposed in 2017 on Obamacare. They had been chasing a car and had no idea what to do when catching it. It's why everything coming out of Trump this term is half baked garbage that in most cases doesn't even get implemented. Between voluntary rollbacks and judicial injunctions, what has Trump actually **done**?

Do you think there's a connection between your weekend-driven politics and the inability of the GOP to commit to any view of the future for more than a few news cycles? Ironically, the only people keeping the Trump administration on course, to the extent that it's on course, are the behind the scenes bureaucrats. Vought and Miller.
Of course short term, weekend driven political wins or losses is a stupid way to judge a politician or a political party in power IF it is considered on its own and not part of a larger process. The progress made in Switzerland with the Chinese is some evidence that Trump's tariff process may be working. The market certainly agrees. The US had to find some leverage to convince the Chinese to reconsider their punitive policies and Trump determined tariffs was the way to inflict the necessary pain to get China to the bargaining table. The release of the American/Israeli hostage to the US through direct negotiations may be evidence that Hamas may be looking for a "deal" with Trump to end the Israeli occupation. Putin agreeing to meet with Z in Turkey, again, may be the beginning of what is the permanent cease fire. India/Pakistan appearing to cool things off (with Rubio's involvement) is obviously a positive development. Time will tell but it's still a good weekend for Trump.

Oh, and the 24 hour news cycle is the way the cable, legacy and social media has been operating for some time now, only its getting faster and faster. By now a WHOLE weekend for judging policies is now an eternity.
 
Of course short term, weekend driven political wins or losses is a stupid way to judge a politician or a political party in power IF it is considered on its own and not part of a larger process. The progress made in Switzerland with the Chinese is some evidence that Trump's tariff process may be working. The market certainly agrees. The US had to find some leverage to convince the Chinese to reconsider their punitive policies and Trump determined tariffs was the way to inflict the necessary pain to get China to the bargaining table. The release of the American/Israeli hostage to the US through direct negotiations may be evidence that Hamas may be looking for a "deal" with Trump to end the Israeli occupation. Putin agreeing to meet with Z in Turkey, again, may be the beginning of what is the permanent cease fire. India/Pakistan appearing to cool things off (with Rubio's involvement) is obviously a positive development. Time will tell but it's still a good weekend for Trump.

Oh, and the 24 hour news cycle is the way the cable, legacy and social media has been operating for some time now, only its getting faster and faster. By now a WHOLE weekend for judging policies is now an eternity.
You make a good point. We should not make day to day judgments as to where we will be over the longer term so at what point should we make a judgment regarding whether Trump is making America great again ?

I'm willing to wait until August to see:

if the Russian war in Ukraine has ended. Trump said he would end the war on day one, but let's give him the 8 months to be fair.
if the conflict in Gaza has been resolved. Again Trump said day one but give him 8 months
if the price of groceries is lower than when he took office as promised... but give him 8 months
if the price of gas at the pump is below $2/gallon as promised... but give him 8 months

What would be your timeline for judging whether Trump is making America great again ?
 
Of course short term, weekend driven political wins or losses is a stupid way to judge a politician or a political party in power IF it is considered on its own and not part of a larger process. The progress made in Switzerland with the Chinese is some evidence that Trump's tariff process may be working. The market certainly agrees. The US had to find some leverage to convince the Chinese to reconsider their punitive policies and Trump determined tariffs was the way to inflict the necessary pain to get China to the bargaining table. The release of the American/Israeli hostage to the US through direct negotiations may be evidence that Hamas may be looking for a "deal" with Trump to end the Israeli occupation. Putin agreeing to meet with Z in Turkey, again, may be the beginning of what is the permanent cease fire. India/Pakistan appearing to cool things off (with Rubio's involvement) is obviously a positive development. Time will tell but it's still a good weekend for Trump.

Oh, and the 24 hour news cycle is the way the cable, legacy and social media has been operating for some time now, only its getting faster and faster. By now a WHOLE weekend for judging policies is now an eternity.
1. Yes, the news cycle is responsible, in part at least, for the destruction of our national political discourse.

It's not only that people don't understand things well enough to hold opinions about them. Like people who have no understanding of the law complaining about "liberal Marxist judges." It's that the people who don't understand are also expected to make snap judgments, which is how they end up swallowing everything hook, line and sinker. This is how MAGA operates. It's not only MAGA that operates this way, but it is by far the worst offender.

2. The "progress" in Switzerland is no progress at all. It's merely partly erasing the stupid escalation from the past six weeks. They said they will be meeting for further discussions. That option has ALWAYS been there for the US. It will go about as well for the US as it has in the past, because the reality is that Chinese policies are not responsible for the trade deficit. There are issues with intellectual property, perhaps, but the trade deficit with China is a result of US overconsumption and idiotic industrial policies. Imagine if Trump had ever followed through on Infrastructure week.

I expect China to give on intellectual property. Not because Trump is tough or because the tariffs matter, but because China's tech is rapidly becoming more advanced than US tech. When a US auto company wants to build a plant in China, China couldn't care less about its technology because it's worse than China's. This problem is being made dramatically worse by Trump, not better.

3. You think the present situation is bad? Wait until the tables are turned. Trump is leading us down a road where we will be the new China -- the ones working in factories for peanuts making shit for the Chinese to buy from us. So you do your country a disservice when you apologize for Trump's idiocy. It really, really doesn't matter whether China agrees to lower its trade barriers. It really doesn't -- except in the national security arena, and that's not because of economic significance.

Here's what determines the terms of trade, to a good first approximation: American production, Chinese production, American consumption, Chinese consumption. The trade deficit is merely the effect of those four factors. If China's production increases relative to American production, then our trade deficit will rise. If American consumption increases relative to China's consumption, the trade deficit will rise. If we reduce our consumption (by lowering the deficit) or increase our production (by increasing public R&D), then our trade deficit will shrink and we will get richer. If we're lucky, we'll get so much richer that our consumption will sustainably rise and increase that trade deficit again, but that's a good problem to have.

4. Trade barriers are mostly about politics. There's a reason why countries with high tariff levels tend to be poor. The reason they are poor is, in part, bad and corrupt government. That same corrupt government hands out tariffs to benefit private interests at the expense of the public. Governments who seriously commit to export-led growth tend to be authoritarian in nature, or at least have a very strong government, because export-led growth is basically achieved by reducing the consumption of the people. Enforced poverty at home, essentially.

When we put up trade barriers, we're just redistributing wealth from the people to the insiders who are going to make more money at the expense of the American people. Workers are unlikely to benefit much because the first order determinant of wages etc. are labor market conditions. A drop in growth from hamstringing US production will tend to produce unemployment, which will create poor labor market conditions.
 
May be anomalous, may be a canary like in Italy, France, etc.


“Nigel Farage's Reform UK has made big gains in English local elections, cementing it as a prime challenger to Britain's traditional main parties.

It won 677 of around 1,600 seats contested on Thursday across a clutch of mainly Tory-held councils last contested in 2021.
Reform seized control of eight authorities from the Conservatives, including former strongholds Kent and Staffordshire.

The party has also won control of Doncaster, the only council Labour was defending, and Durham, where Labour was previously the largest party.”

Keir Starmer has defended his plans to curb net migration after an angry backlash from MPs, businesses and industry to a speech in which he said the UK risked becoming an “island of strangers” without tough new policies.

The rhetoric was likened by some critics to the language of Enoch Powell, and the prime minister was accused of pandering to the populist right by insisting he intended to “take back control of our borders” and end a “squalid chapter” of rising inward migration.


Some politicians claimed that his words had echoed Powell’s notorious “rivers of blood” speech, which imagined a future multicultural Britain where the white population “found themselves made strangers in their own country”.
 
Episcopal Church refuses to resettle white Afrikaners, ends partnership with US government
(RNS) — 'In light of our church’s steadfast commitment to racial justice and reconciliation and our historic ties with the Anglican Church of Southern Africa, we are not able to take this step,' the presiding bishop of the Episcopal Church said in a letter.

In a striking move that ends a nearly four-decades-old relationship between the federal government and the Episcopal Church, the denomination announced on Monday (May 12) that it is terminating its partnership with the government to resettle refugees, citing moral opposition to resettling white Afrikaners from South Africa who have been classified as refugees by President Donald Trump’s administration.
 
His abysmal leadership only strengthens Reform UK. The Tories and Labour are both discredited among the eyes of much of the population. Sound familiar?
I think one of the real problems - not only of Labour but of the Democrats here and other center-left parties in some other democracies such as Germany and France - is that they are not seen by the public as reform parties in a time of great economic change and disruption, but as status quo parties that are willing to tinker at the edges of reform without really doing much. In fact, in some cases, like Starmer, they seem to be bending over backwards to appease the hard right in their nations instead of being bold and charting their own course. And of course they're never going to get more than a handful of votes at most from those people, yet they continue to try over and over. It's like Chuck Schumer's statement earlier this year that he thought that Senate Republicans will surely turn against Trump at some point because so many of them have told him privately that they hate Dear Leader so much.

It seems like most of these parties are trying to position themselves as the "safe and sane" alternative to the nuts opposing them, but they also give the impression to voters that they're not in favor of any real change. It's not a good time to be a status quo party almost anywhere, yet that seems to be the order of the day for many of these center-left parties.
 
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