Economic News Thread | 3Q Annual GDP 2.8%

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More on the Carry-Trade unwind that seems to have exacerbated the sell-off: https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/what-is-the-yen-carry-trade-e5ab9670?mod=livecoverage_web

“…

Is it over yet?​

Probably not. One factor that could drive further yen strength: investors putting on new hedges, according to ING’s Chris Turner. It has been expensive to hedge currency risk for the past few years, so some investors and banks exposed to the yen likely chose not to, said Turner. Japanese investors such as life insurers also cut back hedges on their massive portfolios of foreign bonds. Increasing hedging would essentially create more demand for yen. This risks a vicious circle, as the yen’s strength causes investors and others to close out their weak-yen bets by buying more yen. …”
 
CFordUNC said:
Welp! Guess the Republicans' Great Recession of 2024 was short-lived!
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I wouldn’t be too hasty — still a lot of other issues that could roil markets between now and the September Fed meeting. The soft landing runway appears shorter today than it did on Friday.

runway drifting GIF
 
Markets up around 1% so far today.

Anyway, a gift link: https://www.wsj.com/finance/this-do...n109u2xsbc1f&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… a closer look suggests that while recession risk has risen, the U.S. isn’t in one now. The distinction is crucial because it means it isn’t too late to head off a downturn. It all depends on the Fed, and on the unpredictable moods of investors, consumers and employers.

Two events are driving the recession talk. The first is the stock-market selloff, which wasn’t triggered by news of the U.S. economy, but by the Bank of Japan’s decision Wednesday to tighten monetary policy.

The second event came days later when it was reported that the U.S. unemployment rate had jumped to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June and 3.4% last year, triggering one popular rule of thumb that says the U.S. is in recession.

A recession isn’t a switch that is arbitrarily thrown on or off; it’s a process: a self-reinforcing cycle of weakening spending, employment and income, usually triggered by tight financial conditions such as high interest rates or a credit crunch, or a shock such as higher oil prices or, in 2020, a pandemic. …”
 
nycfan said:
Markets up around 1% so far today.

Anyway, a gift link: https://www.wsj.com/finance/this-do...n109u2xsbc1f&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… a closer look suggests that while recession risk has risen, the U.S. isn’t in one now. The distinction is crucial because it means it isn’t too late to head off a downturn. It all depends on the Fed, and on the unpredictable moods of investors, consumers and employers.

Two events are driving the recession talk. The first is the stock-market selloff, which wasn’t triggered by news of the U.S. economy, but by the Bank of Japan’s decision Wednesday to tighten monetary policy.

The second event came days later when it was reported that the U.S. unemployment rate had jumped to 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June and 3.4% last year, triggering one popular rule of thumb that says the U.S. is in recession.

A recession isn’t a switch that is arbitrarily thrown on or off; it’s a process: a self-reinforcing cycle of weakening spending, employment and income, usually triggered by tight financial conditions such as high interest rates or a credit crunch, or a shock such as higher oil prices or, in 2020, a pandemic. …”
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The market rebounded today. I give full credit to Tim Walz being selected as Kamala's VP.

Thank you, Kamala !
 
We may have some volatility for a while. But the Pubs who were touting yesterday as the start of the “Kamala Recession” are f’ing stupid. This has been a GREAT four years for people with assets in the market. That’s not the end all be all, but the investment class should be extremely excited about another 4-8 years of Bidenomics.
 
lawtig02 said:
We may have some volatility for a while. But the Pubs who were touting yesterday as the start of the “Kamala Recession” are f’ing stupid. This has been a GREAT four years for people with assets in the market. That’s not the end all be all, but the investment class should be extremely excited about another 4-8 years of Bidenomics.
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Don’t be such an out of touch liberal elite! A six-pack of Diet Dew costs $.79 more than it did under Trump. The economy is in shambles.
 
I have some die-hard republicans in my life (family members).
I spoke to two in the last couple of days and literally the first thing they mentioned was the markets, and both in extremely hyperbolic ways.
Both conversations started with me asking how they were doing ?standard greeting).

First: Well, I’m poor again.

Second: good, I’m just worried that there’s going to be nothing left for your inheritance…
 
“
Major U.S. stock indexes gave up most of their gains after trading solidly higher Wednesday morning.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were flat to slightly lower in recent trading, with investors still on edge after Monday's big selloff.

Earlier, the Bank of Japan promised not to raise interest rates while markets are unstable, walking back comments that helped roil global equities. The Nikkei 225 index rose again Wednesday and is now not far off where it was at the start of the week. The yen weakened sharply against the dollar. …”


——

Bank of Japan got told to hush and quit scaring everyone, I guess.

Wtf Japan Reaction GIF by moodman
 
ChileG said:
I have some die-hard republicans in my life (family members).
I spoke to two in the last couple of days and literally the first thing they mentioned was the markets, and both in extremely hyperbolic ways.
Both conversations started with me asking how they were doing ?standard greeting).

First: Well, I’m poor again.

Second: good, I’m just worried that there’s going to be nothing left for your inheritance…
Click to expand...
Good grief. I can't imagine going through life that way.
 
job market numbers come in better than expected. the rumors of our economic demise may have been overstated.
I'm sure Trump is furious the country is doing ok.
 
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