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Those Trump Checks that are coming in September 2026 have to be funded somehow.
TBH, Trump is missing a golden political opportunity — dedicate all or at least half of the Tariff income to refilling the Social Security Trust Fund and he would have a major political victory, IMO. Say half to pay down debt, half to fund Social Security. It isn’t nearly enough to fix either long term but hundred of billions could extend the looming deadline when SS benefits will have to be reduced to about 75% of current benefits in the 2030s if nothing is done. And some conservative economists likely prefer having a use tax accomplish that rather than increasing the SS tax (or removing the cap on income subject to SS tax).
 
TBH, Trump is missing a golden political opportunity — dedicate all or at least half of the Tariff income to refilling the Social Security Trust Fund and he would have a major political victory, IMO. Say half to pay down debt, half to fund Social Security. It isn’t nearly enough to fix either long term but hundred of billions could extend the looming deadline when SS benefits will have to be reduced to about 75% of current benefits in the 2030s if nothing is done. And some conservative economists likely prefer having a use tax accomplish that rather than increasing the SS tax (or removing the cap on income subject to SS tax).
That's a good idea. I'll be shocked if he does it, though, because Trump is playing entirely to his non-college educated base, and he knows that group will be far more impacted by a check signed by him than by an esoteric payment plan for a revenue source they count on but don't understand.

I also think we may be approaching peak tariff revenue. Importers have been willing to pay them so far because they're hoping Trump will TACO. But it's not sustainable, and we're about to start seeing companies taking creative steps to avoid the tariffs.
 
I also think we may be approaching peak tariff revenue. Importers have been willing to pay them so far because they're hoping Trump will TACO. But it's not sustainable, and we're about to start seeing companies taking creative steps to avoid the tariffs.
I doubt it. The reciprocal tariffs just kicked in. That will raise revenue, the same way income tax rates raise revenue when increased despite creative steps to avoid.

I think companies are just going to pass on the costs and/or shut down/move elsewhere.
 
IMG_8729.jpeg

🎁. —> https://www.wsj.com/opinion/who-is-...4?st=VhPKZr&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… [Miran] summed up his central argument in a widely cited November 2024 essay:

“From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency.” Foreign central banks hold huge dollar reserves and most of the world’s goods are traded in dollars. He says this global demand for dollars results in an overvalued greenback that leads to trade imbalances and harms Americans.

His solution? Manage a decline in the dollar’s value over time by reducing the global demand for the U.S. currency, or at least mitigate the effects of its overvaluation. Tariffs do the latter in his view by forcing foreigners to pay for the fact that their currencies are undervalued and boost their exports to the U.S.

But his ambition goes beyond tariffs. In that 2024 essay he laid out other policy options for negotiating a weaker dollar and diminishing its reserve-currency status. One idea is to tax foreigners who hold U.S. Treasury debt as an incentive to hold less of it. This would amount to a de facto default on current debt.

More ambitiously, Mr. Miran floats a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” in which leading nations would negotiate a new global financial system to rebalance currency values. This echoes the Plaza and Louvre accords of the 1980s that coordinated monetary policies to arrest the surging dollar amid the rush of capital and goods into the U.S. during the Reagan economic boom….”
 
I've addressed Miran's paper before on this site. It is incoherent. It also completely ignores services.

The idea of selectively taxing foreign debt is bonkers, not only because it's a default. It's also impossible. Anyone can form a US holding company, throw Treasuries into it, and sell bonds that just happen to pay the same as Treasuries. If some of the investors are Americans, what the hell is the government going to do? Miran probably should have talked to someone with actual experience in finance.
 
IMG_8729.jpeg

🎁. —> https://www.wsj.com/opinion/who-is-...4?st=VhPKZr&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… [Miran] summed up his central argument in a widely cited November 2024 essay:

“From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency.” Foreign central banks hold huge dollar reserves and most of the world’s goods are traded in dollars. He says this global demand for dollars results in an overvalued greenback that leads to trade imbalances and harms Americans.

His solution? Manage a decline in the dollar’s value over time by reducing the global demand for the U.S. currency, or at least mitigate the effects of its overvaluation. Tariffs do the latter in his view by forcing foreigners to pay for the fact that their currencies are undervalued and boost their exports to the U.S.

But his ambition goes beyond tariffs. In that 2024 essay he laid out other policy options for negotiating a weaker dollar and diminishing its reserve-currency status. One idea is to tax foreigners who hold U.S. Treasury debt as an incentive to hold less of it. This would amount to a de facto default on current debt.

More ambitiously, Mr. Miran floats a “Mar-a-Lago Accord” in which leading nations would negotiate a new global financial system to rebalance currency values. This echoes the Plaza and Louvre accords of the 1980s that coordinated monetary policies to arrest the surging dollar amid the rush of capital and goods into the U.S. during the Reagan economic boom….”
Just the most recent and laughable example of the Trump admin looking at a global economic system that WAS BUILT TO BENEFIT THE USA and saying "I think we should ruin that." Just incredibly stupid stuff here. Yeah, you guys are right, things WILL be less expensive if you just ruin the US economy. These guys literally think we will be better off if millions of Americans are sitting in factories sewing socks and putting together Iphones. Bonkers stuff.
 
This BLS nominee is a complete hack, a propaganda spinster from the Heritage Foundation and project 2025. I have an Economics degree, though not an Economist. But it doesn't take an economist to see what a political hack this guy is. He writes and cites complete garbage. Example follows...

 
Wall Street is concerned about the reliability of inflation data on eve of CPI


"This week’s inflation data will be huge for markets, and not just for the numbers.

Beneath the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ reports on consumer and producer prices will be simmering questions over the data’s validity.

Those concerns have accelerated as budget cutbacks have forced the agency to change the way it collects data. On top of that, President Donald Trump’s decision to fire the BLS commissioner after the July nonfarm payrolls data was released raised worries that the bureau could be politicized.

Doubt over the accuracy and integrity of the data is a serious issue considering how much BLS work is used to formulate policy, calculate Social Security payments and inform any number of other political and economic decisions."
 

The U.S. Marches Toward State Capitalism With American Characteristics

President Trump is imitating Chinese Communist Party by extending political control ever deeper into economy​


🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s...8?st=RdZth8&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“A generation ago conventional wisdom held that as China liberalized, its economy would come to resemble America’s. Instead, capitalism in America is starting to look like China.

Recent examples include President Trump’s demand that Intel’s CEO resign; the “golden share” Washington will get in U.S. Steel as a condition of Nippon Steel’s takeover; and the $1.5 trillion of promised investment from trading partners Trump plans to personally direct.

This isn’t socialism, in which the state owns the means of production. It is more like state capitalism, a hybrid between socialism and capitalism in which the state guides the decisions of nominally private enterprises.

China calls its hybrid “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The U.S. hasn’t gone as far as China or even milder practitioners of state capitalism such as Russia, Brazil and, at times, France.

So call this variant “state capitalism with American characteristics.” It is still a sea change from the free market ethos the U.S. once embodied.…”
In 10 years after some time has passed following our economic collapse, Republicans will refuse to claim Trump. There is precedent. Nixon was for a long time called a liberal by many conservatives though I think the attitude toward him has again improved among conservatives. Bush 2 is no longer considered the right kind of conservative. (They certainly were plenty happy with him before.)

Trump will be labeled as a liberal because of his government intervention in the economy.

Bank on it.
 
In 10 years after some time has passed following our economic collapse, Republicans will refuse to claim Trump. There is precedent. Nixon was for a long time called a liberal by many conservatives though I think the attitude toward him has again improved among conservatives. Bush 2 is no longer considered the right kind of conservative. (They certainly were plenty happy with him before.)

Trump will be labeled as a liberal because of his government intervention in the economy.

Bank on it.
I’m guessing 2029 Trump will be like 1992 Lenin in Russia. All the memories of him will be quickly erased. The rose garden will be replanted. The gold leaf will go back to white paint. The Obama painting will go back to the main room and Trump’s portrait will be in a back room. It will be like Trump never existed. Republicans will almost never mention his name.
 
I’m guessing 2029 Trump will be like 1992 Lenin in Russia. All the memories of him will be quickly erased. The rose garden will be replanted. The gold leaf will go back to white paint. The Obama painting will go back to the main room and Trump’s portrait will be in a back room. It will be like Trump never existed. Republicans will almost never mention his name.
I sincerely doubt it.

We’re too far gone for the R party to pull an “oh, we were just kidding!”

People at the CDC are being shot. The entirety of the health and science research industry in the US is being quickly and vastly destroyed. The university systems are being stripped of hundreds of millions in funding that can’t be immediately replaced once Trump is out of office.

The immigration system is fucked for decades.

Likewise, it will take decades (if it’s even possible) to repair the international relations and trade deals that Trump and MAGA idiots have wrought.

These aren’t things that Rs can easily sweep under the rug. And honestly, many of them have no desire to sweep it under the rug—they’ve made their desires clear, and if their plan fails, they’ll blame Dems and RINOS and liberal judges, and they’ll push all the harder for their white Christian nationalist agenda.

Trump’s economic agenda is now a dictate from God. To go against it is heresy. They’re not gonna reject that religious fervor if a dem wins in 2028, nor will they back a non-Trumper for an R nomination in 2028.
 
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I’m guessing 2029 Trump will be like 1992 Lenin in Russia. All the memories of him will be quickly erased. The rose garden will be replanted. The gold leaf will go back to white paint. The Obama painting will go back to the main room and Trump’s portrait will be in a back room. It will be like Trump never existed. Republicans will almost never mention his name.
Also, by ‘92, Russian citizens had a small taste of what it was like to live under semi-democratic capitalism. The Berlin Wall had fallen and everyone was happy to buy Levi’s and leave the bread lines and shortages of toilet paper behind.

This is different. Trump supplied MAGA white folks with a tantalizing vision of what can be. They’re not gonna suddenly shirk him.
 
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