Economic News

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ZenMode said:
Trump has fired a lot of people with low levels of melanin.
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Oh come on, dude. Even you can't be blind to the patterns here. "They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats." Every black person Trump talks about is "low-IQ." He's now "investigating" two black women -- Tish James and Lisa Cook (the latter of whom has never done anything to Trump at all -- but seems to have far less scrutiny for the white dudes in his cabinet.

For a guy whose sig line suggests he cares about evidence, you really don't act like it at all. The evidence of Trump's racism and the primacy it plays in his mind is overwhelming. If it was a trial, the prosecution would need three weeks to present it all.
 
superrific said:
Oh come on, dude. Even you can't be blind to the patterns here. "They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats." Every black person Trump talks about is "low-IQ." He's now "investigating" two black women -- Tish James and Lisa Cook (the latter of whom has never done anything to Trump at all -- but seems to have far less scrutiny for the white dudes in his cabinet.

For a guy whose sig line suggests he cares about evidence, you really don't act like it at all. The evidence of Trump's racism and the primacy it plays in his mind is overwhelming. If it was a trial, the prosecution would need three weeks to present it all.
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I like Zen and I always pay attention to his posts. I know many here view him as naive and ignorant or a troll, but he lends insight into many of those who say I do not like Trump, but I will tacitly defend him no matter.

There are so many Zens in our country. They know Trump is a bigot and a fraud, but in the end ?

I know my support of posters like Zen, ram, HY, and calla ruffle feathers, but I believe being exposed to their perspective makes this a better political message board and keeps it from being an "echo chamber "
 
heelinhell said:
I know my support of posters like Zen, ram, HY, and calla ruffle feathers, but I believe being exposed to their perspective makes this a better political message board and keeps it from being an "echo chamber "
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They don't affect whether it's an echo chamber. They offer such little resistance and intellectual heft that they might as well not be there.
 
superrific said:
They don't affect whether it's an echo chamber. They offer such little resistance and intellectual heft that they might as well not be there.
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I respectfully disagree. They provide us a window into the evolving perspective of today's Trump/MAGA/GQP neo- conservative .
 
I have them all on super-ignore and it makes the board a much more interesting and useful experience. I no longer have to work around the intentional attempts at distraction, and, if I need a conservative or MAGA perspective, it's not hard to find alternative sources.
 
PCE report being released in about 20 minutes. I will be interested in seeing the PCE Price Index report because it is a better indicator of inflation than the CPI and will impact whether the Fed cuts rates in September and by how much
 
superrific said:
They don't affect whether it's an echo chamber. They offer such little resistance and intellectual heft that they might as well not be there.
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they sure don't prevent an echo chamber; they just created a new echo of people telling them the same thing over and over again, which they laugh at while their troll boners grow more turgid.
 
Huh? said:
I have them all on super-ignore and it makes the board a much more interesting and useful experience. I no longer have to work around the intentional attempts at distraction, and, if I need a conservative or MAGA perspective, it's not hard to find alternative sources.
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I agree. There are enough primary source Trump "truths" posted here to give a pretty firm idea of what is driving MAGA. The troll and twitter bot servility reaction isn't really needed.
 
Healing said:
Trump extorting all these companies puts a cooling effect on their willingness to increase prices. That said, we’ve heard from multiple retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, that prices will increase. We’re also seeing record high prices in certain grocery categories, including beef and coffee (though across the board grocery inflation hasn’t been bad).

It’ll be interesting to see just how long the shell game can last. I said we’ll know by the end of September whether Trump has pulled an inside straight. I’m now thinking the timeline was more reasonably the end of the year, but we’re definitely a percent below my expectation. Has the everyday man, populous Trump managed to get all those evil corps to accept lower profit margins? And how long does that last?
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I had said that I would be interested in where the shell game stands at the end of October when the holiday seasons begin.

Will retailers be willing to take a hit and eat the tariff costs during the Christmas shopping season ? Will consumers be forced cut back on spending for holiday gifts if prices increase resulting in fewer and/or cheaper presents under the Christmas tree( sorry kids ) ?

Not to mention the impact should more folks lose their jobs over the next few months...
 
One thing to remember here: inflation can look lower than it is if some products get priced out of the market entirely.

I used the example of okra near me. It now costs $10 a pound. So I don't buy any. And now that Kroger learned that nobody wants to buy okra at that price, it's almost never in the stores. So I buy a different vegetable. The okra inflated so much that it falls out of the calculation altogether.

This is called "substitution bias" in inflation calculations and it's a known issue. Normally, they adjust by taking the model weight of the okra and allocating it to substitute products. In most cases, this is good policy, because it helps adjust for shifting preferences and new technology. I have no idea how expensive VCRs are right now, but I'm guessing they are pretty pricey because nobody makes them and the market for them is very, very specialized. But they're not in the CPI basket of goods for obvious reasons. That's a genuinely good statistics -- we wouldn't want to confuse legacy products with the devalued dollar.

But in cases of exogenous shocks, it doesn't work as well. Estimates of the undercounting of inflation as a result of the 2018-19 tariffs are between 0.2% and 0.3%, and estimates for the 2025 tariffs are between 0.5% and 0.7%.

So when you see PCE of 2.9% increase, it's actually about 3.4%.
 
that's an odd thing to have a jump in. Not sure if it helps the lamprey businesses that are there to gobble up the crumbs from the casinos
 
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