Economic News

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Two things can be true at once:
1. Trump's policies are an unmitigated disaster for the country as a whole as well as the average American, and
2. The economy was in poor shape when Biden left office (which was not Biden's fault).

I was always of the opinion that Biden and Harris made a major error by stating how great the American economy was. They should have empathized with the middle and lower classes, explained why inflation was occurring and how difficult it was for the average American, and what their plan was to improve the economy over the next four years.
 
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“… White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also accused the BLS of having “failed the American people,” but said the report showing the U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported between April of last year and March of this year proves “that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken.”…

… The BLS released a preliminary report Tuesday that found employers added 849,000 total jobs for the year ending in March, opposed to previous data that showed 1.76 million new jobs. The Treasury Department and analysts at major U.S. banks predicted the revision, which was slightly higher than the revision issued for last year’s annual data, when the BLS lowered jobs growth by 818,000 jobs….”



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The erroneous data proves Trump was right about everything.
 
So, tell me where I'm wrong about the nature of the job revisions:

1. A business that employs 15 natives and 5 non-work-visa immigrants tells the federal government it has 20 employees. Don't want someone to snoop around.
2. Business tells the state employment office that it has 15 employees, because they would have to pay unemployment insurance on the other 5 who are off the books.
3. Monthly surveys go out, they tend to report all actual jobs.
4. Federal reconciliation with state employment offices: some of those actual jobs are deemed not to exist because they are off the books.

I'm fairly certain that would describe the process for an undocumented worker. I'm not sure if it would apply to a TPS worker. That is, I don't know if TPS recipients are eligible for unemployment (I would doubt it), and thus this set up might also create excessive reporting for TPS employees.

If this is true, then it's hilarious that nobody wants to talk about it. Dems don't want to admit that a million immigrants were working off the books. Pubs don't want to admit that they are working at all (since then they wouldn't be dangerous criminals). But the reality is that the illegal immigrants are actually bolstering a strange labor force. Note that unemployment rate didn't change much over all of these revisions, so what's happening is that the illegal immigrants are taking the jobs Americans don't want. Thus did the economy create documented and undocumented jobs in approximately equal numbers . . .
 
superrific said:
Lumber is used for more than just housing, and it is considered a leading indicator.

This looks to me like a pullback based on what we all know is coming -- a significant economic downturn.
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Pallets for shipping comes to mind. You would be amazed at the number of pallets a business can go through.
 
nycfan said:


“… White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also accused the BLS of having “failed the American people,” but said the report showing the U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported between April of last year and March of this year proves “that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken.”…

… The BLS released a preliminary report Tuesday that found employers added 849,000 total jobs for the year ending in March, opposed to previous data that showed 1.76 million new jobs. The Treasury Department and analysts at major U.S. banks predicted the revision, which was slightly higher than the revision issued for last year’s annual data, when the BLS lowered jobs growth by 818,000 jobs….”



——
The erroneous data proves Trump was right about everything.
Click to expand...

Whup there it is...

and now the BLS revisions are no longer fake numbers :LOL:
 
superrific said:
So, tell me where I'm wrong about the nature of the job revisions:

1. A business that employs 15 natives and 5 non-work-visa immigrants tells the federal government it has 20 employees. Don't want someone to snoop around.
2. Business tells the state employment office that it has 15 employees, because they would have to pay unemployment insurance on the other 5 who are off the books.
3. Monthly surveys go out, they tend to report all actual jobs.
4. Federal reconciliation with state employment offices: some of those actual jobs are deemed not to exist because they are off the books.

I'm fairly certain that would describe the process for an undocumented worker. I'm not sure if it would apply to a TPS worker. That is, I don't know if TPS recipients are eligible for unemployment (I would doubt it), and thus this set up might also create excessive reporting for TPS employees.

If this is true, then it's hilarious that nobody wants to talk about it. Dems don't want to admit that a million immigrants were working off the books. Pubs don't want to admit that they are working at all (since then they wouldn't be dangerous criminals). But the reality is that the illegal immigrants are actually bolstering a strange labor force. Note that unemployment rate didn't change much over all of these revisions, so what's happening is that the illegal immigrants are taking the jobs Americans don't want. Thus did the economy create documented and undocumented jobs in approximately equal numbers . . .
Click to expand...
I've never worked in construction or any of the trades so I don't know how they treat immigrants with no work visas, but I have worked quite a bit in distribution/warehousing and manufacturing, including ten years in CA where there're a lot of immigrants working illegally. Mostly they would just get a fake SS number and fill out the I9 accordingly. SUI, SS and all applicable taxes were paid/withheld. Pretty much anyone knows where to buy a SSN, it s a big business. Why do you think so many employers (and the legislators/congresspeople who receive campaign donations from them) have been opposed to E-Verify?
 
farce© said:
I've never worked in construction or any of the trades so I don't know how they treat immigrants with no work visas, but I have worked quite a bit in distribution/warehousing and manufacturing, including ten years in CA where there're a lot of immigrants working illegally. Mostly they would just get a fake SS number and fill out the I9 accordingly. SUI, SS and all applicable taxes were paid/withheld. Pretty much anyone knows where to buy a SSN, it s a big business. Why do you think so many employers (and the legislators/congresspeople who receive campaign donations from them) have been opposed to E-Verify?
Click to expand...

I have always been told that undocumented workers are usually serious about paying their taxes because if they should get caught up in a deportation hearing, than such documentation would be important in establishing moral character. I have no idea how fake SSN's would play into a deportation hearing. Obviously, that was before Trump 2.0.

E-verify? I tend to believe simple economics can solve most things. There are several million undocumented workers in just three industries: construction, hospitality, and farming. If it costs let's say ten dollars extra an hour, to make an undocumented workers documented, then what will happen? Fix the economics of having documented workers and won't have to worry about E-Verify and might not have to worry as much about who is crossing the border, I would think.
 
farce© said:
I've never worked in construction or any of the trades so I don't know how they treat immigrants with no work visas, but I have worked quite a bit in distribution/warehousing and manufacturing, including ten years in CA where there're a lot of immigrants working illegally. Mostly they would just get a fake SS number and fill out the I9 accordingly. SUI, SS and all applicable taxes were paid/withheld. Pretty much anyone knows where to buy a SSN, it s a big business. Why do you think so many employers (and the legislators/congresspeople who receive campaign donations from them) have been opposed to E-Verify?
Click to expand...
Hmm. I knew they would get SS numbers, but I thought maybe the employers would just try to lay as low as possible. But if SUI (state unemployment insurance?) is being paid, then never mind. Still, the undocumented workers aren't showing up to collect unemployment, so maybe that's it?
 
BoonetheAiredale said:
Are the markets whistling by the graveyard, or am I being overly influenced by my negative reaction to Federal economic choices?
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I’ve been asking myself the same question since the election. Hard not to let my negative attitude toward the overall awfulness of the Trump Administration influence my decisions as a business owner. On the other hand, even if I’m being nonpartisan, I just don’t see how the economy could go anywhere but down based on the decisions being made.
 
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🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/consume...0?st=En1ezY&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… The data also show how average households haven’t gained ground economically since the Covid-19 pandemic hit, underscoring the continued toll of rising prices. Inflation-adjusted median household income last year was at roughly the same level as in 2019, before the pandemic struck, following sharp declines after Covid’s onset and a tepid recovery since then….

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… Tuesday’s report also showed poverty levels in the U.S. were little changed….

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