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I don’t think it is at all clear this is the double secret plan that has been hinted at by the Trump team, but it is possible. Depending on how they play it, this strategy could create risk of deciding whether to absorb large short term losses if events overtake their short position or I guess physical delivery to settle the position and avoid $$ losses while they wait out the oil shock. the latter would further deplete the reserves, but the former could require payment of huge $$ losses.

🤔
 
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nycfan said:


I don’t think it is at all clear this is the double secret plan that has been hinted at by the Trump team, but it is possible. Depending on how they play it, this strategy could create risk of deciding whether to absorb large short term losses if events overtake their short position or I guess physical delivery to settle the position and avoid $$ losses while they wait out the oil shock. the latter would further deplete the reserves, but the former could require payment of huge $$ losses.

🤔
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I’m totally ignorant about this but it’s surprising to me the Treasury is legally allowed to short commodities.
 
Dow futures are also paring losses at the moment.

Meanwhile, the measure of volatility (fear gauge — sort of blood pressure of the markets) is spiking, so to speak, but still not nearly as extreme as Trump’s original “Liberation Day” tariff announcement …

IMG_5570.jpeg
 
nycfan said:
Dow futures are also paring losses at the moment.

Meanwhile, the measure of volatility (fear gauge — sort of blood pressure of the markets) is spiking, so to speak, but still not nearly as extreme as Trump’s original “Liberation Day” tariff announcement …

IMG_5570.jpeg
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Dow futures are down 483 points
NASDAQ down 239 points
S&P down 62 points

Not horrible but this continuing steady down trend suggests to me we are heading toward a bear market. Can a recession be far behind ?
 


So far, this Iran operation is a cascade of worst‑case outcomes.
• Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing tanker traffic by 80–90% and sending oil prices from about $65 to over $110 in just over a week.
• U.S. operational costs: ~$1B per day.
• Iranian drone and missile attacks have killed 7 Americans and wounded 18.
• A likely U.S. strike on Feb 28 hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab, killing ~165–175 civilians—mostly schoolgirls aged 7–12z
• Kuwait was expected to have ~18 days of storage before cuts, but began reducing oil output within 2–3 days of the blockade.
• Iraqi oil production from its main southern fields has collapsed by 70%.
• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned Gulf exporters may halt production within days, potentially spiking oil to $150 per barrel within 2-3 weeks.
• U.S. embassy evacuations collapsed into disaster: State Dept delayed approvals 1–4 days, facilities struck, thousands stranded amid closed airspace/airports, slow military/charter rollout.
• Treasury issued a 30‑day OFAC waiver allowing India to continue purchasing Russian oil, reversing years of U.S. pressure discouraging those imports.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader has been replaced by his more hardline son, Mojtaba Khamenei — and with Iran likely heavily protecting him, Trump’s likely push to remove him could take time, prolonging the crisis and its costs.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 growth plunged from 3.0% (Mar 2) to 2.1% (Mar 6) — a 0.9 pp drop in just four days.
• U.S. gas prices jumped from about $2.95 to ~$3.40/gal in a week (≈40–60¢, one of the fastest increases ever), while diesel surged ~50–75¢ to ~$4.30–$4.50.
• U.S. stocks have fallen since Feb 28: S&P 500 −2.0%, Dow −3.0%, Nasdaq −1–2%.
• Despite hopes the strikes might trigger regime collapse, protests so far are nowhere near the scale of the January 2026 nationwide uprising.
• The Fed’s ability to cut rates is constrained even with weak jobs data, as surging oil has pushed up inflation expectations.
 
dukeman92 said:


So far, this Iran operation is a cascade of worst‑case outcomes.
• Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing tanker traffic by 80–90% and sending oil prices from about $65 to over $110 in just over a week.
• U.S. operational costs: ~$1B per day.
• Iranian drone and missile attacks have killed 7 Americans and wounded 18.
• A likely U.S. strike on Feb 28 hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab, killing ~165–175 civilians—mostly schoolgirls aged 7–12z
• Kuwait was expected to have ~18 days of storage before cuts, but began reducing oil output within 2–3 days of the blockade.
• Iraqi oil production from its main southern fields has collapsed by 70%.
• Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned Gulf exporters may halt production within days, potentially spiking oil to $150 per barrel within 2-3 weeks.
• U.S. embassy evacuations collapsed into disaster: State Dept delayed approvals 1–4 days, facilities struck, thousands stranded amid closed airspace/airports, slow military/charter rollout.
• Treasury issued a 30‑day OFAC waiver allowing India to continue purchasing Russian oil, reversing years of U.S. pressure discouraging those imports.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader has been replaced by his more hardline son, Mojtaba Khamenei — and with Iran likely heavily protecting him, Trump’s likely push to remove him could take time, prolonging the crisis and its costs.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 growth plunged from 3.0% (Mar 2) to 2.1% (Mar 6) — a 0.9 pp drop in just four days.
• U.S. gas prices jumped from about $2.95 to ~$3.40/gal in a week (≈40–60¢, one of the fastest increases ever), while diesel surged ~50–75¢ to ~$4.30–$4.50.
• U.S. stocks have fallen since Feb 28: S&P 500 −2.0%, Dow −3.0%, Nasdaq −1–2%.
• Despite hopes the strikes might trigger regime collapse, protests so far are nowhere near the scale of the January 2026 nationwide uprising.
• The Fed’s ability to cut rates is constrained even with weak jobs data, as surging oil has pushed up inflation expectations.
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Interesting how we’re not hearing “THIS IS WHAT I VOTED FOR!!!” nearly as much as we did when Trump was punching down on drag queens and shooting liberals in the streets.
 
lawtig02 said:
Interesting how we’re not hearing “THIS IS WHAT I VOTED FOR!!!” nearly as much as we did when Trump was punching down on drag queens and shooting liberals in the streets.
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It would be nice if our MAGA GQPer board members would give us their opinion or at least inform us what are today's Fox "News" talking points.
 
heelinhell said:
It would be nice if our MAGA GQPer board members would give us their opinion or at least inform us what are today's Fox "News" talking points.
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I've seen all these quoted in the last 12 hours.

"Short term pain for long term gain".

"I'm fine paying more for gas for our freedom."

"Biden's gas prices were still worse!"

"Trump is doing what he has to. Peace through strength." (not sure how the hell this works)
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen all these quoted in the last 12 hours.

"Short term pain for long term gain".

"I'm fine paying more for gas for our freedom."

"Biden's gas prices were still worse!"

"Trump is doing what he has to. Peace through strength." (not sure how the hell this works)
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Don't forget that we wouldn't be in this situation if Biden had not depleted the SPR, which we've already seen from our Hermes of disingenuous right wing talking points, Ramrouser.
 
Dow now down well below 47,000

If the Dow drops another 2000 points it will be where it was when Sleepy Joe left office
 
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I’ve thought for a while that all of the discussion about NIL and revenue sharing and UNC in the SEC is moot, because higher education is about to be made obsolete. At least, in its present iteration.
 
pspsps said:
When the middle class get restless …
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then just scare the shit out of them with the threat that brown people are coming to rape and kill your family and "Arabs" are coming to blow up our country with terrorist attacks.
 
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