Economic News

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“… Trump is indicating “at least the possibility that he’s not going to be deterred by market volatility, he’s not going to be deterred by falling stock prices, and that he might not even be deterred by an economic downturn,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “That is new for him.”

And while economic unsteadiness in the U.S. predates Trump’s second term — indeed, it played a significant role in his return to office — these latest economic pressures are largely of the president’s own making and will test his appetite for weathering short-term economic uncertainty and political backlash in the hope of long-term economic gain.

“His antics have been very painful. At least he’s acknowledging that there’s pain,” said a person close to the administration, granted anonymity to speak candidly about its decisions. “I don’t quite get it because in the first administration he judged himself every day by the stock market. He has now chosen to judge himself by something else — I don’t know what it is.” …”
 
This new Republican talking point about how the economy is going through a rough patch because of the end of Biden government largess is nutso.

No new budget has been passed. The government is continuing to spend on the same pace it was under Biden. There is absolutely no difference in government spending as of today (despite the DOGE theatrics). The only thing that is moving markets is Trump's erratic and bizarre statements.
 
Trump’s going to break his own 100-day disapproval record. It makes sense now why so many of his supporters were so eager to “scoreboard” his meager 52% approval rating one month into his term.
 
nycfan said:


Trump needs to appoint Tuberville ambassador to Uranus or something to get him to quit giving interviews.
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Tommy Tuberville: the gift that keeps on giving. I know there are a ton of people in politics who say stupid shit, but is there anyone who actually comes across as dumb as this guy? Most others are acting for their base. But I think he’s really as dumb as everything— I mean everything— he says.
 
Bobfripp said:
Trump will blame Biden even if a recession holds off until Fall 2028.
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Icky Mettle said:
Tommy Tuberville: the gift that keeps on giving. I know there are a ton of people in politics who say stupid shit, but is there anyone who actually comes across as dumb as this guy? Most others are acting for their base. But I think he’s really as dumb as everything— I mean everything— he says.
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Tuberville is the dumbest in the Senate. Boebert and Marge in the House.
 
nycfan said:
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“…Wall Street had its worst day of 2025 on Monday, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.7 percent a day after President Trump refused to rule out that his aggressive trade policies could cause a recession. The sell-off came as the Canadian province of Ontario put in place retaliatory tariffs on energy it exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York, and as Mr. Trump’s trade war with China intensified with Beijing responding to his tariffs by imposing levies on American farm products.…”
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Worst day of 2025... So far.
 
nycfan said:
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“…Wall Street had its worst day of 2025 on Monday, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.7 percent a day after President Trump refused to rule out that his aggressive trade policies could cause a recession. The sell-off came as the Canadian province of Ontario put in place retaliatory tariffs on energy it exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York, and as Mr. Trump’s trade war with China intensified with Beijing responding to his tariffs by imposing levies on American farm products.…”
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Donald Trump GIF by Creative Courage
 
The market can overreact in either direction — things can still level off and recover, but damage has been done with six weeks of wildly erratic behavior.
 
ChileG said:
Where the fuck are all the Trump cheerleaders? I hope their disappearances from this board is a sign that they now recognize that voting for this clown was a mistake. A mistake they will try to fix in 2026 and 2028.
But I have my doubts.
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I posted in January they would vanish once (and it was once, not if) Trump & Musk really screwed things up and the economy started to go down and the tariffs started to hit and all the rest of his and Elon's and his administration's crap started to really hit the fan. Some Trumper posters said here two or three weeks ago that they were just "taking a break from the board" and would return "sometime", but "sometime" seems to be drifting further and further away as the trajectory of events just keeps moving downhill, not only economically, but in pretty much every other way as well.
 
nycfan said:
The market can overreact in either direction — things can still level off and recover, but damage has been done with six weeks of wildly erratic behavior.
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i admit i know nothing about the marketplace.

But given the high likelihood of continued chaos and erratic behavior, I don’t see a leveling off and recovery as a likely outcome.
 
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“… You may have seen people citing the Atlanta Fed’s “nowcast” that attempts to infer GDP far in advance of the official numbers, and which is currently showing a sharp decline in the first quarter. But that’s almost certainly a statistical red herring: It’s mostly about a surge of gold imports in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs, which is screwing up the usually helpful Atlanta model.

But while talk of recession is premature, there’s already a palpable sense of disappointment in the Trump economy. …

… The Trump economic team seems, however, to be pushing a different kind of excuse: The claim that Biden left behind a terrible economy, and that we’ll need to go through a painful period of “detox.”

Now, you may wonder how anyone could characterize the economy when Trump took office, with 2.5 percent growth, low unemployment and inflation only slightly above the Fed’s 2 percent target, as terrible.

But the Trumpist position, coming from multiple officials, seems to be that the prosperity was fake, that the numbers were exaggerated by bloated government spending and employment. Hence the need for a costly transition to an economy where workers are doing useful things.

As usual, one has to ask: Are they ignorant or are they lying? And as usual, the answer is: Why not both? …”
 
nycfan said:


“… You may have seen people citing the Atlanta Fed’s “nowcast” that attempts to infer GDP far in advance of the official numbers, and which is currently showing a sharp decline in the first quarter. But that’s almost certainly a statistical red herring: It’s mostly about a surge of gold imports in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs, which is screwing up the usually helpful Atlanta model.

But while talk of recession is premature, there’s already a palpable sense of disappointment in the Trump economy. …

… The Trump economic team seems, however, to be pushing a different kind of excuse: The claim that Biden left behind a terrible economy, and that we’ll need to go through a painful period of “detox.”

Now, you may wonder how anyone could characterize the economy when Trump took office, with 2.5 percent growth, low unemployment and inflation only slightly above the Fed’s 2 percent target, as terrible.

But the Trumpist position, coming from multiple officials, seems to be that the prosperity was fake, that the numbers were exaggerated by bloated government spending and employment. Hence the need for a costly transition to an economy where workers are doing useful things.

As usual, one has to ask: Are they ignorant or are they lying? And as usual, the answer is: Why not both? …”
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“… Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has to have people working for him who both understand how GDP is measured and know how to look up data on FRED. So when Bessent says

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nycfan said:
“… Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has to have people working for him who both understand how GDP is measured and know how to look up data on FRED. So when Bessent says

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…
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… “This created temporary problems with supply chains, which weren’t prepared to handle that many goods in transit. Remember all those container ships sailing back and forth off the coast of California, waiting for a chance to unload? And these supply chain problems were the main reason for the inflationary surge of 2021-22.

But nothing like that is happening now. The whole “detox” thing is just a cover story for policy failure.”
 
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