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Kraftyheel89 said:
I know you said he could not back down on that after hyping it so much. I'm not saying he will (he might) but I certainly believe he could, unlike you. He can do ANYTHING 180 degrees either way on any subject, no matter what he recently said, and his cult is 100% behind either one. Because "Trump is the greatest ever" and those simpletons don't understand anything.
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I didn't mean he couldn't, as in he's physically or mentally not capable. He clearly is. I'm just saying that it makes him look super weak
 
superrific said:
Hey Trump -- this is going to happen every time. The markets don't like tariffs. It's not foreign agitators. Every time you put in tariffs, this will happen. And every time you lift them, the market will respond positively (though on balance likely net negative).
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Would be interesting to know if anyone is getting a heads up on what the rhetoric for the day will be on tariffs.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
That is exactly what is happening Super. The markets had a decent partial recovery, and I think a 4 or 5 successive positive days little rally. That came right after Trump softened his rhetoric on tariffs last week into the start of this week. "Reciprocal tariffs may not be as harsh as the tariffs we face, it would be way too high, that's how bad we are getting screwed, and I am a much nicer guy." And he also threw out that he was still in negotiations with Mexico and Canada, implying he may pull those. Then the comment about lighter tariffs on China, so that an American tech buddy can buy Tik Tok (what a ridiculous reason to drop tariffs if you believe in them at the level he does.)

Early next week will be VERY telling and will have a major impact on the markets one way or the other. Remember, April 2nd is the day of reciprocal tariffs and his "Day of Liberation for America."

I know you said he could not back down on that after hyping it so much. I'm not saying he will (he might) but I certainly believe he could, unlike you. He can do ANYTHING 180 degrees either way on any subject, no matter what he recently said, and his cult is 100% behind either one. Because "Trump is the greatest ever" and those simpletons don't understand anything.
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Ah, the "Day of Liberation" ... from what and to what? I guess it depends of one's perspective.

I see three possibilities with this shifting economic policy: 1) Trump and friends are trading the inevitable dips and gains: 2) Trump is suffering from dementia; and/or 3) Trump is a Russian agent elevated to destroy the United States from within.

The Navy Comes Through Cause GIF by Warner Archive

The problem is that at some point, the shifting/waffling gets baked into the economy and a "boy who cried wolf" skepticism set in. Then, nothing would work because no one will believe anything that comes out of Trump's McDonald's pie hole. That's when the real hard times are likely to set in.

Enjoy the ride, people!
 
Purple Nurple said:
Would be interesting to know if anyone is getting a heads up on what the rhetoric for the day will be on tariffs.
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I sort of doubt it. I don't think the constant flip-flopping is about corruption. I think it's about Trump being completely unable to accept that the market disagrees with him as to the effects of tariffs.
 
www.forbes.com

Rolling Consumer Boycotts Stalk Amazon, Target And Tesla

Forbes’ expert contributors consider how renewed consumer activism may affect retail giants and could give small businesses new opportunities to win customers.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Consumer activists have launched rolling economic boycotts of Target, Amazon and other recognizable companies in recent weeks to protest DEI rollbacks and policies seemingly aimed at appeasing the Trump administration. The outcome of these campaigns hinges on how deeply the companies feel their effects and whether consumers can find suitable alternatives.

The People's Union USA, a consumer advocacy group organizing many of the boycotts, has set its sights this week on Nestlé, for what the group's founder John Schwarz says is the company's failure to address allegations of toxic ingredients and unethical business practices. This action follows calls to boycott retailers Amazon and Target for rollbacks to their diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.


Nestlé did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


Meanwhile, anger toward the electric vehicle maker Tesla has boiled over as public antipathy toward its CEO, Elon Musk, seems to have grown since he became the Trump administration's chief cost-cutter.


These consumer initiatives may indicate the start of a "Great Rejection," which is gaining momentum online to stop spending on nonessential goods, Greg Petro, Forbes Investing contributor, says.
 
fortune.com

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon says customers are exhibiting 'stressed behaviors'—and it's already tanked the company's valuation by $22 billion

The retailer’s stock dropped on the news that consumer confidence had hit a 12-year low.
fortune.com fortune.com

  • Walmart’s market cap dropped by $22 billion after news broke Tuesday that consumer confidence in the U.S. plummeted to a 12-year low. CEO Doug McMillon had just said last month he’d noticed “stressed” behavior from consumers who were more budget-constrained.
Consumer confidence is waning—and it’s hurting retailers big and small. It has even come for the world’s largest retailer, Walmart, which lost nearly $22 billion off its valuation on Tuesday.
 
altmin said:
www.forbes.com

Rolling Consumer Boycotts Stalk Amazon, Target And Tesla

Forbes’ expert contributors consider how renewed consumer activism may affect retail giants and could give small businesses new opportunities to win customers.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Consumer activists have launched rolling economic boycotts of Target, Amazon and other recognizable companies in recent weeks to protest DEI rollbacks and policies seemingly aimed at appeasing the Trump administration. The outcome of these campaigns hinges on how deeply the companies feel their effects and whether consumers can find suitable alternatives.

The People's Union USA, a consumer advocacy group organizing many of the boycotts, has set its sights this week on Nestlé, for what the group's founder John Schwarz says is the company's failure to address allegations of toxic ingredients and unethical business practices. This action follows calls to boycott retailers Amazon and Target for rollbacks to their diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.


Nestlé did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


Meanwhile, anger toward the electric vehicle maker Tesla has boiled over as public antipathy toward its CEO, Elon Musk, seems to have grown since he became the Trump administration's chief cost-cutter.


These consumer initiatives may indicate the start of a "Great Rejection," which is gaining momentum online to stop spending on nonessential goods, Greg Petro, Forbes Investing contributor, says.
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Wow...I've been boycotting Nestle for at least 40 years. Never spent a dime in Wal-Mart either. No Domino's or Chic-fil-A either. No big deal just a thing to do.
 
altmin said:
These consumer initiatives may indicate the start of a "Great Rejection," which is gaining momentum online to stop spending on nonessential goods, Greg Petro, Forbes Investing contributor, says.
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From the Forbes article: "Meanwhile, the housing market—the repository of personal wealth for many Americans—has remained hobbled by high prices and mortgage rates."

How is the repository of personal wealth for many Americans hobbled by high prices?
 
hedge said:
From the Forbes article: "Meanwhile, the housing market—the repository of personal wealth for many Americans—has remained hobbled by high prices and mortgage rates."

How is the repository of personal wealth for many Americans hobbled by high prices?
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High prices and high mortgage rates prevent folks from buying (especially existing homeowners who would usually trading up — the vast middle of the market between entry level homes and luxury properties that have a different market less influenced by mortgage rates). Lack of buyers limits or delays ability of existing homeowners to cash out the value accrued in their property.
 
hedge said:
From the Forbes article: "Meanwhile, the housing market—the repository of personal wealth for many Americans—has remained hobbled by high prices and mortgage rates."

How is the repository of personal wealth for many Americans hobbled by high prices?
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It's an asset that has always had limited liquidity...and that is being greatly exaggerated now. Pricing is high indeed but increasingly there are fewer paths to finding buyers to fulfill those sales. It is a WEIRD housing market out there right now.

Builders are keeping prices elevated by doing HUGE rate buydowns which the builder pays for at closing. Thats the only way they can move inventory. But it fucks with comps somewhat fierce.

As an example, I reviewed a closing statement on a townhouse in Angier last week. Purchase price was $309,000 but the buyer used the builder's lender and the builder bought the rate down on a 30 year FHA note to 4.25% fixed. The builder paid nearly $32,000 to buy that rate. That means the true cash price of the home should be 277,000. Here's the kicker....builder won't sell it to you for a penny less than $309,000 even if you're paying cash. If you offered them 295k cash (which is a MUCH better net for them), they will turn it down because that comp ruins their ability to sell the next 150 in the neighborhood for $309k and higher. So they, like every other builder, will continue this shell game and slowly increase pricing while building their own comps for the marketplace.

However, homeowners can't compete with that because the bulk buydowns available to a builder with 300 lots arent there for individual sellers and the best they can buy the rate down to is a couple % higher than what the new construction offers.

It is a mess and it is getting worse.
 
wmheel1287 said:
It's an asset that has always had limited liquidity...and that is being greatly exaggerated now. Pricing is high indeed but increasingly there are fewer paths to finding buyers to fulfill those sales. It is a WEIRD housing market out there right now.

Builders are keeping prices elevated by doing HUGE rate buydowns which the builder pays for at closing. Thats the only way they can move inventory. But it fucks with comps somewhat fierce.

As an example, I reviewed a closing statement on a townhouse in Angier last week. Purchase price was $309,000 but the buyer used the builder's lender and the builder bought the rate down on a 30 year FHA note to 4.25% fixed. The builder paid nearly $32,000 to buy that rate. That means the true cash price of the home should be 277,000. Here's the kicker....builder won't sell it to you for a penny less than $309,000 even if you're paying cash. If you offered them 295k cash (which is a MUCH better net for them), they will turn it down because that comp ruins their ability to sell the next 150 in the neighborhood for $309k and higher. So they, like every other builder, will continue this shell game and slowly increase pricing while building their own comps for the marketplace.

However, homeowners can't compete with that because the bulk buydowns available to a builder with 300 lots arent there for individual sellers and the best they can buy the rate down to is a couple % higher than what the new construction offers.

It is a mess and it is getting worse.
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That’s very interesting.
 
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