Economic News

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Weakening travel demand, signaled by grim earnings forecasts of travel-related companies, may erase billions of dollars from the U.S. economy this year as the Trump administration's trade policy takes a toll on consumer sentiment, analysts have warned.
"Anti-American sentiment could be driving a decline in international tourism, which is considered a service export," J.P.Morgan said in a note last week.


Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan projected lower foreign travel spending to trim 0.1% from U.S. GDP this year, adding that the hit could be as much as 0.2% to 0.3%.
As of the first quarter of 2025, U.S. GDP stands at $23.53 trillion, according to LSEG data, and the impact could amount to anywhere between $23 billion and $71 billion, based on Reuters calculations.
 
Zoo_View said:
She really sucks at interviewing Trump. Maybe she’s better interviewing other people.

Part of the problem with interviewing Trump is he lies constantly.

I don’t know why news media gives him time.
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The trick is to focus on questions where you ask him what is he going to do to fix things that are a result of his policies. In a few weeks, the thing to ask him is what is he's doing to fix the supply chain when there's fewer ships in port. Don't even have to mention he caused it because everyone will know. He'll be in a mess with his answers. At that point, is he going to lie and say there's no supply chain to fix? Good luck to him if he does.
 
Maybe this has been posted earlier, but nothing captures Trump like this exchange:ROFLMAO:

“When does it become the Trump economy?” Welker asked Trump in the extensive interview that aired Sunday.

“It partially is right now,” Trump replied. “I think the good parts are the Trump economy, and the bad parts are the Biden economy.”
 
I would not want to hold bonds when Bessent has to confess that tax receipts were low this year and the X-date is earlier than previously estimated.

The dollar-as-reserve-currency creates such weird effects when the dollar is being stewarded by a bunch of low-IQ toddlers.
 
superrific said:
I would not want to hold bonds when Bessent has to confess that tax receipts were low this year and the X-date is earlier than previously estimated.

The dollar-as-reserve-currency creates such weird effects when the dollar is being stewarded by a bunch of low-IQ toddlers.
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Now more than ever cash is king
 
So we hear from the Fed this afternoon and my prediction is no rate cut despite pressure from Trump.

The interesting question is whether there will be a rate cut this summer or even later in the year. My guess is no rate cuts this year as the Fed monitors for inflation spikes vs. unemployment spikes...
 
heelinhell said:
So we hear from the Fed this afternoon and my prediction is no rate cut despite pressure from Trump.

The interesting question is whether there will be a rate cut this summer or even later in the year. My guess is no rate cuts this year as the Fed monitors for inflation spikes vs. unemployment spikes...
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From what I’ve read, the general expectation is no cut today and a 25 bps cut at the next meeting in July, depending on how other data turns out in the interim.
 
nycfan said:
From what I’ve read, the general expectation is no cut today and a 25 bps cut at the next meeting in July, depending on how other data turns out in the interim.
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I can't see how the Fed could possibly make a determination of whether to cut or raise. So status quo it will probably be.
 
No change in interest rate by Fed, but warnings of higher unemployment and higher inflation risks going forward.
 
nycfan said:
He’s been busy blathering about how we don’t celebrate WWII enough.

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Let's get rid of Christmas, Easter, St. Patrick's and Valentine's Day. They don't have anything to do with the nation. You can include Halloween , to but it's a lot more ecumenical.
 
nycfan said:
No change in interest rate by Fed, but warnings of higher unemployment and higher inflation risks going forward.
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I disagree with their interpretation of the 1Q GDP report.

The Fed's position seems to be something like "consumption remains constant; thus, the big surge of imports merely accelerated some of the purchasing."

My position is more like: "consumption is falling; the big surge of imports made consumption look strong but if the purchases are just going into inventory [which is the theory as to why the 1Q results weren't as bad as they look] it does not augur well."

Normally, I'd say the Fed knows more than I do about these issues (and they do in this case as well) but I think they are wrong on this point. We will see, I guess.
 
nycfan said:
No change in interest rate by Fed, but warnings of higher unemployment and higher inflation risks going forward.
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as I mentioned in an earlier post above that the Fed will monitor spikes in inflation vs spikes in unemployment to determine whether any rate cuts will come this year...

but what will the Fed do if there are spikes in both inflation and unemployment... and slowing economic growth ?

Paul Volcker died back in 2019 so he can't save us...
 

Monthly Inflation Ticked Up in Early Hints of Tariff Effects​

CPI was up 0.2% over the month, while annual inflation was 2.3%​


IMG_6937.jpeg

“… Year-over-year inflation cooled to a 2.3% increase in April, below the 2.4% that economists had expected and below March’s annual rate. A big decline in gasoline prices versus a year earlier helped pull that rate lower. …”

 
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