Economic News
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HintonJamesHeel
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I think we are saying the same thing. Being green for the year is great considering the churn we’ve had. The green would be more green without Trump’s craziness. The fact we are green shows the economy’s strength.
HintonJamesHeel
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Agreed. That’s what I’ve seen over and over again on this thread. Go back and look at what was being said around Liberation Day. Folks were saying 20-25% down. Trump collapsed on his policies and we have rebounded. That’s not an endorsement of Trump. It’s the opposite.
Bigs23
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We’ll have to wait and see what happens when the impact of this idiotic plan actually kicks in.
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I would not bet my life on 4.6% GDP growth in the 2nd quarter , but that would be a positive sign that Trump's economic plan will return our economy to the greatest economy in the history of all mankind...
"The improved GDP predictions correlate directly with new trade agreements and the delay of tariffs. However, the political landscape remains precarious. Trump’s vocal stance on potential renewed tariffs, particularly against China and the EU, introduces significant uncertainty. Many analysts highlight the paradox of a bullish GDP outlook coupled with the looming threat of trade wars. If tariffs are reinstated, they could lead to an economic contraction that undermines the Fed’s optimistic projections."
ChileG
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For the MAGAs lurking, this is more evidence that Trump and his administration have no fucking clue about what they are doing.Global Investors Have a New Reason to Pull Back From U.S. Debt
After hedging currency risk, foreign investors no longer make money buying American bonds
—> https://www.wsj.com/finance/investi...4?st=wLmyfo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
“Foreign investors have plenty of reasons to be wary of U.S. government debt at the moment. Now there is another: They can often receive better returns buying bonds in their own countries.
The risk of a weaker U.S. dollar and the cost of protecting against that risk, are making American assets less attractive around the world. That comes at a bad time for the U.S. Treasury market, which is already contending with a darkening U.S. budget picture and the trade war….”
lawtig02
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Management's Services PMI registered a reading of 49.9 in May, below the 51.6 seen in April and lower than the increase to 52 economists had expected. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. May's data marked just the fourth time the services sector has fallen into contraction in the past five years.
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Many seem to be missing the ripple effect of the uncertainty in business.
It's costing my company money.
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There's no plan. He caved and we are basically back where we started.
Plus the ripple effect will be lagging.
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superrific
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1. It is not the Atlanta Federal Reserve. It is their GDP Now estimator, which they expressly disclaim as not being anything like an official forecast. It's just a real-time data aggregator, essentially. It's useful, though no longer because . . .
2. The model was not calibrated for a regime of wild economic uncertainty and volatility. We already saw that in 1Q, when GDP Now was predicting -2.5% growth but it had to be adjusted for an unusually large spike in gold transfers.
Well, if you peek into the GDP Now forecast, you'll see net exports are projected to grow 2.1% -- which accounts for most of that growth. Well, it's a good thing that we're exporting more, right? Except we aren't. That 2.1% figure is almost certainly about reduced imports from China. As we've seen, those reduced imports are not positively affecting the economy, but the damage won't show up in the May numbers. And there's an explicit assumption that personal expenditures are going to remain robust even though the net import story is telling a different tale.
Again, the tool was not calibrated to an exogenous shock like tariffs. Most models fail when there are exogenous shocks.
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Obviously totally anecdotal but I am definitely starting to see ripples causing distress for corporate borrowers due to tariffs, hostility to green energy and related uncertainties… a noticeable uptick in calls from and about distressed borrowers this month.
superrific
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Yep.
You should be a leading economic indicator. Seriously. I mean, not you specifically but your field.
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I’ve had more serious conversations about Chapter 7 bankruptcy in the last 6 weeks than I had in the last several years. Chapter 11 comes up fairly regularly but it is unusual in my 25+ years to have Chapter 7 be in play this often. [For those unfamiliar, Chapter 11 generally is used to try to restructure a company to emerge from bankruptcy as a going concern (though it doesn’t always work out that way); Chapter 7 means skipping any restructuring and basically mailing the keys to the lender and wishing them best of luck liquidating the remaining assets. ]
lawtig02
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Yeah, companies reliant on imports, especially small businesses with low margins, are just totally FUBAR right now.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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Chapter 7? I guess you weren't involved in the Lehman bankruptcy? Oh who am I kidding -- every lawyer in NYC was involved with that bankruptcy in some fashion, LOL.
On a serious note: "inquiries about Chapter 7 with lawyers" definitely should be a leading indicator.