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Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
Labor Department says staffing shortages reduced its ability to conduct its massive monthly survey
—> https://www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-inf...e?st=cYzxqj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink“Some economists are beginning to question the accuracy of recent U.S. inflation data after the federal government said staffing shortages hampered its ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.
Economists say the staffing shortage raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports. There is no sign of an intentional effort to publish false or misleading statistics. But any problems with the data could have major implications for the economy.
To calculate the inflation rate, hundreds of government workers called enumerators fan out across cities each month to check how much businesses are charging for products such as blue jeans and services such as accounting, often by visiting bricks-and-mortar stores. Statisticians roll those figures together into the consumer-price index, a data stream that shows how the cost of living is changing for typical Americans.
If the government’s enumerators can’t track down a specific price in a given city, they try to make an educated guess based on a close substitute: say, cargo pants instead of slacks. But in April, with fewer workers on hand to check prices, statisticians had to base their guesses on less comparable products or other regions of the country—a process called different-cell imputation—much more often than usual, according to the BLS.…”
1moretimeagain
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heelinhell
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Trump the Butcher: The first thing we do, let's kill all the statisticians.Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
Labor Department says staffing shortages reduced its ability to conduct its massive monthly survey
“Some economists are beginning to question the accuracy of recent U.S. inflation data after the federal government said staffing shortages hampered its ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.
Economists say the staffing shortage raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports. There is no sign of an intentional effort to publish false or misleading statistics. But any problems with the data could have major implications for the economy.
To calculate the inflation rate, hundreds of government workers called enumerators fan out across cities each month to check how much businesses are charging for products such as blue jeans and services such as accounting, often by visiting bricks-and-mortar stores. Statisticians roll those figures together into the consumer-price index, a data stream that shows how the cost of living is changing for typical Americans.
If the government’s enumerators can’t track down a specific price in a given city, they try to make an educated guess based on a close substitute: say, cargo pants instead of slacks. But in April, with fewer workers on hand to check prices, statisticians had to base their guesses on less comparable products or other regions of the country—a process called different-cell imputation—much more often than usual, according to the BLS.…”
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“… New applications for jobless benefits rose by 8,000 to 247,000 for the week ending May 31, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the most since early October. Analysts had forecast 237,000 new applications.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits are considered representative of U.S. layoffs and have mostly bounced around a historically healthy range between 200,000 and 250,000 since COVID-19 throttled the economy five years ago, wiping out millions of jobs.
…
Earlier this week, the government reported that U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in April, but other data suggested that Americans are less optimistic about the labor market.
Tuesday’s report showed that the number of Americans quitting their jobs — a sign of confidence in their prospects — fell, while layoffs ticked higher. And in another sign the job market has cooled from the hiring boom of 2021-2023, the Labor Department reported one job every unemployed person. As recently as December 2022, there were two vacancies for every jobless American.…”
evrheel
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The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits last week rises to highest level in eight months
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits last week rises to highest level in eight months
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits rose to their highest level in eight months last week but remain historically low despite growing uncertainty about how tariffs could impact the broader economy.
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Hiring Slowed in May, With 139,000 New Jobs
Unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%
—> https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jo...7?st=2d477z&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Since ordinary revisions of job numbers became a political cudgel during the 2024 election, a footnote to the solid if not spectacular job report that nonetheless significantly beat expectations (125,000 expected):
“… The May payrolls number compared with a revised 147,000 jobs added in April. Revisions showed employers added a combined 95,000 fewer jobs in March and April than previously estimated.…”
lawtig02
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This is strange. I could have SWORN downward revisions only happened when Dems are in the White House.Hiring Slowed in May, With 139,000 New Jobs
Unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%
Since ordinary revisions of job numbers became a political cudgel during the 2024 election, a footnote to the solid if not spectacular job report that nonetheless significantly beat expectations (125,000 expected):
“… The May payrolls number compared with a revised 147,000 jobs added in April. Revisions showed employers added a combined 95,000 fewer jobs in March and April than previously estimated.…”
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1moretimeagain
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It was made out to be quite a conspiracy last year.
lawtig02
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superrific
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In fairness, 8,000 jobs lost in a month is holding steady. Obviously they are pouncing because of Trump's promise to bring mfg jobs back, but 8,000 in a month could very well just be a fluctuation.
Is it just me, or did good jobs reports used to come in with higher numbers? 139K seems awfully low for a good report, especially given the 95K downward revision, but maybe I'm behind the times.
Is it just me, or did good jobs reports used to come in with higher numbers? 139K seems awfully low for a good report, especially given the 95K downward revision, but maybe I'm behind the times.
lawtig02
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This is not uncommon when we're at close to full employment, which we have been for a while now.
superrific
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I just looked. Jan was the worst January for jobs added since 2015. Feb was the second worst. March the third worst and April also the third worst. While I don't want to do arithmetic or worry about data files, my eyeballs suggest that it's the lowest since 2015 by a fair margin. All the bad months prior to 2025 were in years surrounded by blowouts -- for instance, in 2019, the jobs created went from 250K to 6K to 230 and then 298.
Retirements can affect these numbers. I would think that retirements are up relative to ten years ago, but maybe not? The population is older now, though I don't know if there are more people at retirement age.
Note that I'm obviously excluding 2020 (though the start of that year had two months of 200K jobs created before everything crashed).
Dubious economic numbers coming from the Trump Administration was an easily predictable outcome…..not sure I expected it by June…..I was thinking October/November.Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
Labor Department says staffing shortages reduced its ability to conduct its massive monthly survey
“Some economists are beginning to question the accuracy of recent U.S. inflation data after the federal government said staffing shortages hampered its ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.
Economists say the staffing shortage raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports. There is no sign of an intentional effort to publish false or misleading statistics. But any problems with the data could have major implications for the economy.
To calculate the inflation rate, hundreds of government workers called enumerators fan out across cities each month to check how much businesses are charging for products such as blue jeans and services such as accounting, often by visiting bricks-and-mortar stores. Statisticians roll those figures together into the consumer-price index, a data stream that shows how the cost of living is changing for typical Americans.
If the government’s enumerators can’t track down a specific price in a given city, they try to make an educated guess based on a close substitute: say, cargo pants instead of slacks. But in April, with fewer workers on hand to check prices, statisticians had to base their guesses on less comparable products or other regions of the country—a process called different-cell imputation—much more often than usual, according to the BLS.…”