Lunacy seems a bit strong. Europe has done a lot of rate cutting and the inflation and growth concerns are not that different over there.
Economic News
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.
lawtig02
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Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.www.bea.gov
How much time before Trump calls his own administration a bunch of liars again?
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Claiming a historic gain in blue-collar wage growth, Trump shows how to use statistics to mislead
Commentary: Claiming a historic gain in blue-collar wage growth, Trump shows how to use statistics to mislead [Is this link behind a firewall for you guys? Not clear if LA times has a gift link option]
[setting aside the obscure calculation they used], “… A fundamental question about the White House claim is why it chose to measure itself against the first five months of previous administrations. Why not the first five months of all presidential terms? Or any other five-month period?
… The time frame cited by the White House is curiously selective. The historical comparison to the first five months of one-term presidents and the first terms of two-term presidents doesn’t apply to Trump: “This is Trump’s second term, so he’s not really a member of this club,” observe Dunne and Henwood.
They note, further, that the five-month annualized gain in worker wages is “a silly metric.” The statistic is notoriously volatile, and averaging such a short period only exacerbates its ephemerality.
… It’s proper to recognize that even assembling the statistics that the Trump administration decided to torture for its news release may become more difficult in the future. That’s because Trump is taking a hatchet to the government’s economic data infrastructure.
Several datasets have been deleted from federal websites. Budget cuts and mass firings will hobble data collection, and expert advisory committees serving the Census Bureau, BLS and Bureau of Economic Analysis have been disbanded.
The result of these and other assaults, wrote Jed Kolko, a former undersecretary for economic affairs at the Commerce Department overseeing data operations at the Census Bureau and BEA, will include the destruction of trust in U.S. economic data.
“Governments hide or manipulate the numbers only when they’re bad, as Argentina did with inflation, Greece with public finances, and China with its youth unemployment rate,” Kolko wrote.…”
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I read this NYPost piece when it came out and have been trying to figure out where they calculated the stats since the article doesn’t tell you that.
From the LA Times link above:
“… The basis for Trump’s claim is a government statistic tracking inflation-adjusted hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees in the private sector, pegged to prices in 1982-1984.
The workers tend to be rank-and-file employees, though economic analysts Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of TLRAnalytics note that it’s a stretch to call them “blue-collar.” The term customarily applies to laborers, not “bartenders, teachers, or retail workers” whose earnings are also tracked by the statistic.
Trump cited wage growth from Jan. 1 through May 31 this year. As it happens, however, Trump wasn’t president for that entire period; he took office on Jan. 20, so at least some of his claim covered the last three weeks of the Biden administration.…”
From the LA Times link above:
“… The basis for Trump’s claim is a government statistic tracking inflation-adjusted hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees in the private sector, pegged to prices in 1982-1984.
The workers tend to be rank-and-file employees, though economic analysts Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of TLRAnalytics note that it’s a stretch to call them “blue-collar.” The term customarily applies to laborers, not “bartenders, teachers, or retail workers” whose earnings are also tracked by the statistic.
Trump cited wage growth from Jan. 1 through May 31 this year. As it happens, however, Trump wasn’t president for that entire period; he took office on Jan. 20, so at least some of his claim covered the last three weeks of the Biden administration.…”
BillOfRights
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Washington
CNN
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A deluge of economic data released Thursday should have provided a clearer picture of how the US economy is faring in the face of President Donald Trump’s massive policy shifts. But the latest numbers were a mixed bag, leaving economists still scratching their heads.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.
BillOfRights
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Stagflation, Recession, Unemployment: Predictions From Apollo's Top Economist - Business Insider The US is staring down a fate worse than recession, and 4 other bold forecasts from a top economist
HintonJamesHeel
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Gas $3.21
Lowest in four years
Let’s go!
Lowest in four years
Let’s go!
BillOfRights
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Lower prices at the pump can be an indicator of economic weakness as fewer people having jobs means less travel for work and less disposable income for leisure. Just sayin'.
HintonJamesHeel
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Definitely might be true because airline tickets were down 7% last month so could be seeing softness in business travel but as of now, jobs haven’t seen a drop.
BillOfRights
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Recurring jobless claims hits highest number since Nov 2021. Timeframe correlates with your gas prices.
Check out this story from USA TODAY: 'You become very numb.' High long-term unemployment a sign of distress
As hiring has slowed amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, long-term unemployment has climbed to a more than 2-year high.
Long-term unemployment hits 2-year high as hiring slows amid economic uncertainty
As hiring has slowed amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, long-term unemployment has climbed to a more than 2-year high.
www.usatoday.com
And:
US Recurring Jobless Claims Jump to Highest Since End of 2021 MSN
HintonJamesHeel
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I wonder how much is tied to the AI investments. My company is doing the modernization thing and pouring hundreds of millions into these things and headcount is being very much impacted.Check out this story from USA TODAY: 'You become very numb.' High long-term unemployment a sign of distress
As hiring has slowed amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, long-term unemployment has climbed to a more than 2-year high.
Long-term unemployment hits 2-year high as hiring slows amid economic uncertainty
As hiring has slowed amid tariffs and economic uncertainty, long-term unemployment has climbed to a more than 2-year high.
Recurring US Jobless Claims Jump to Highest Since November 2021 Recurring US Jobless Claims Jump to Highest Since November 2021
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I bet there is something to that.
BillOfRights
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I'm sure that affects the number of people losing their jobs, which can cause less demand for gas. Increasing corporate efficiency is great for profits, but can have negative effects for the economy and families.
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Unemployment among young college graduates outpaces overall US joblessness rate
Unemployment among young college graduates outpaces overall US joblessness rate
Young people graduating from college this spring and summer are facing one of the toughest job markets in more than a decade.
apnews.com
“… Young people graduating from college this spring and summer are facing one of the toughest job markets in more than a decade. The unemployment rate for degree holders ages 22 to 27 has reached its highest level in a dozen years, excluding the coronavirus pandemic. Joblessness among that group is now higher than the overall unemployment rate, and the gap is larger than it has been in more than three decades.
The rise in unemployment has worried many economists as well as officials at the Federal Reserve because it could be an early sign of trouble for the economy. It suggests businesses are holding off on hiring new workers because of rampant uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s tariff increases, which could slow growth.
…
“Young people are bearing the brunt of a lot of economic uncertainty,” Brad Hersbein, senior economist at the Upjohn Institute, a labor-focused think tank, said. “The people that you often are most hesitant in hiring when economic conditions are uncertain are entry-level positions.”
The growth of artificial intelligence may be playing an additional role by eating away at positions for beginners in white-collar professions such as information technology, finance, and law….”
HintonJamesHeel
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This is all AI. The modernization we are doing has basically made college hiring a total 0.Unemployment among young college graduates outpaces overall US joblessness rate
Unemployment among young college graduates outpaces overall US joblessness rate
Young people graduating from college this spring and summer are facing one of the toughest job markets in more than a decade.
“… Young people graduating from college this spring and summer are facing one of the toughest job markets in more than a decade. The unemployment rate for degree holders ages 22 to 27 has reached its highest level in a dozen years, excluding the coronavirus pandemic. Joblessness among that group is now higher than the overall unemployment rate, and the gap is larger than it has been in more than three decades.
The rise in unemployment has worried many economists as well as officials at the Federal Reserve because it could be an early sign of trouble for the economy. It suggests businesses are holding off on hiring new workers because of rampant uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s tariff increases, which could slow growth.
…
“Young people are bearing the brunt of a lot of economic uncertainty,” Brad Hersbein, senior economist at the Upjohn Institute, a labor-focused think tank, said. “The people that you often are most hesitant in hiring when economic conditions are uncertain are entry-level positions.”
The growth of artificial intelligence may be playing an additional role by eating away at positions for beginners in white-collar professions such as information technology, finance, and law….”
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True, gas fell significantly during COVID also.
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The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Data on employment outcomes for new graduates and young workers.
Gray line is all younger workers, light blue is young workers with at least a college degree:
Young workers with degrees still are doing better than the cohort overall, but that gap is narrowing right now, which could be in part due to the AI hiring hesitancy in white collar jobs, as well as uncertainty in the financial markets directly impacting law, accounting, banking and other financial sector jobs right now.