More than a little is real in terms of larger size, increased number of and more complex appliances , new energy technologies including solar and geothermal and a massive upgrade in data wiring and such.
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Some things go up in value faster than the price of inflation. Supply and demand is certainly the most logical explanation for that.
That chart shows that home values have roughly doubled the pace of inflation over the last 25 years.
But that is nothing compared to gold. In 2000 (in inflation adjusted dollars), gold traded at $503 an ounce. Today, it trades at $3,362.
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Perhaps related to #3, PE and RE investment groups buying, improving and flipping houses.
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There are also still lingering supply effects from the housing crash and covid.
And interest rates.
Maybe also the private equity increased ownership.
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Yea, but that's because after the global apocalypse the only thing of value to our dystopian overloads will be gold. Not food, not water, not energy, but the shiny metal, gold.
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CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs
Ford chief predicts AI will replace ‘literally half of all white-collar workers’
—> https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-whit...9?st=ZuTjGR&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Whenever I think I've got it figured out I watch Levon Helm in this clip from the shooter movie.
NONE of these statistics are reliable as no agency in the Trump administration can be trusted. The ADP numbers are a much better barometer of what's actually going on. We could have 50% of workers unemployed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics would report 3.9%. Hopefully, state statistics will reflect the real numbers on the ground, but maybe not in red states.
... and the "respected" mainstream slurpers continue to slurp up the nonsense.
Oops. Guess Trump's Bureau slipped up on getting that rate cut. Economics. Shmeeconomics. We'll just fire Powell and get our cut anyway.
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Wow, I made $5 an hour plus tips when I delivered for the hut. Of course considering inflation i probably had greater spending power.
superrific
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All right. I've done a deep dive into the job numbers here, because they didn't make sense. Why would state and local government + health care be carrying the jobs report? And here's what I've found out:
1. I thought the health care sector would be down because of the knock on effects from the NIH cuts. I can't find any evidence to support that. So I guess the 40K there is a legit number. Of course, this type of workforce gain is a double edged sword, in that it creates temporary employment but there's no investment value, but regardless.
Now, hospitals are the biggest category of hiring. Let's see what will happen with medicaid cuts. These job gains could be illusory. But this line checks out.
2. "Education" gains seem to be illusory. They are all functions of seasonal adjustments. Education employment actually **WENT DOWN** but by less than it usually does in the summer. So the seasonal adjustment made it seem like a gain. I don't know why jobs would be higher in education this summer as opposed to last.
We have a lot of educators here. Any ideas? I mean, federal assistance is set to drop considerably. Why would they keep people employed?
3. The next biggest line item is "Individual and family services." This is where I drilled deeper and found what's happening here. The funding available under a federal statute called FFPSA has been untouched -- unlike most federal assistance programs. So there's more money there. And FFPSA money is mostly about placement in foster care and follow-up checks.
This increase is almost surely related to deportations. They are deporting parents, leaving kids, and thus way more foster care services will be needed. I am guessing that the funding for these organizations is renewed annually, probably in June? This suggests to me that states and localities are either having a surge in orphans or are expecting ones.
So this category of job increase should be viewed as a negative, not a positive. It's almost surely not going to continue.
1. I thought the health care sector would be down because of the knock on effects from the NIH cuts. I can't find any evidence to support that. So I guess the 40K there is a legit number. Of course, this type of workforce gain is a double edged sword, in that it creates temporary employment but there's no investment value, but regardless.
Now, hospitals are the biggest category of hiring. Let's see what will happen with medicaid cuts. These job gains could be illusory. But this line checks out.
2. "Education" gains seem to be illusory. They are all functions of seasonal adjustments. Education employment actually **WENT DOWN** but by less than it usually does in the summer. So the seasonal adjustment made it seem like a gain. I don't know why jobs would be higher in education this summer as opposed to last.
We have a lot of educators here. Any ideas? I mean, federal assistance is set to drop considerably. Why would they keep people employed?
3. The next biggest line item is "Individual and family services." This is where I drilled deeper and found what's happening here. The funding available under a federal statute called FFPSA has been untouched -- unlike most federal assistance programs. So there's more money there. And FFPSA money is mostly about placement in foster care and follow-up checks.
This increase is almost surely related to deportations. They are deporting parents, leaving kids, and thus way more foster care services will be needed. I am guessing that the funding for these organizations is renewed annually, probably in June? This suggests to me that states and localities are either having a surge in orphans or are expecting ones.
So this category of job increase should be viewed as a negative, not a positive. It's almost surely not going to continue.
superrific
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So bottom line: most of the gains in this job report are likely one-time effects. I would not expect to see those seasonal gains in education show up sequentially, so you can take most of that number right out of the July jobs report. I have no idea what will happen with FFPSA but obviously this category of jobs is not making anyone richer.
I predict August is going to prove to be a whipsaw with most of these job gains in education evaporating.
That said, I don't know if there are effects on the flip side -- i.e. are there decreases in other categories that reflect unusual patterns relative to seasonal adjustments? There are no big categories that I can see, but there are a lot of line items so drips and drops coming in could make a difference.
Still, I think this is a one-off jobs report. Yes, I want it to be, so my reasoning is not without motivation, but I do try to be as objective as possible.
I predict August is going to prove to be a whipsaw with most of these job gains in education evaporating.
That said, I don't know if there are effects on the flip side -- i.e. are there decreases in other categories that reflect unusual patterns relative to seasonal adjustments? There are no big categories that I can see, but there are a lot of line items so drips and drops coming in could make a difference.
Still, I think this is a one-off jobs report. Yes, I want it to be, so my reasoning is not without motivation, but I do try to be as objective as possible.
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I sold a little bit in March... and never got back in.
superrific
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If I have to say so myself, I think I've done some pretty good economic analysis/sleuthing today. Going to give myself a pat on the back and work on other things now.