Economic News

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It’s is interesting — China’s response to Trump’s tariffs has been aggressive rhetoric and responsive tariffs. Many China watchers find that curious because they are not sure China is in position to sustain a trade war with the United States due to an already sluggish economy. But some China analysts claim that members of Xi’s government think the fastest route to Chinese recovery is a U.S. recession. So perhaps Xi is willing for Chinese citizens to sustain short-term economic pain for longer term opportunities if/when Trump’s policies direct the U.S. economy into a recession or stagflation cycle?
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
Estimates for a chance of a 2025 recession right before Trump took office was 17%. Now it has nearly doubled to 31%.

A way overvalued stock market is due for a decent correct. But there was no indication that the economy would be anywhere near recession levels. Now, quite possible.
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For the sake of preserving democracy, I wouldn't mind a recession rolling in a year from now along with high unemployment and stagflation. Take back the House and possibly the Senate ? Trump with a 34% approval rating ?
 
nycfan said:


It’s is interesting — China’s response to Trump’s tariffs has been aggressive rhetoric and responsive tariffs. Many China watchers find that curious because they are not sure China is in position to sustain a trade war with the United States due to an already sluggish economy. But some China analysts claim that members of Xi’s government think the fastest route to Chinese recovery is a U.S. recession. So perhaps Xi is willing for Chinese citizens to sustain short-term economic pain for longer term opportunities if/when Trump’s policies direct the U.S. economy into a recession or stagflation cycle?
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Huh? Maybe Xi is the one who convinced Trump to follow his current path.
 
nycfan said:
So perhaps Xi is willing for Chinese citizens to sustain short-term economic pain for longer term opportunities if/when Trump’s policies direct the U.S. economy into a recession or stagflation cycle?
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Why the "perhaps"? That's been the CCP's economic policy for thirty years. And I recall reading somewhere during Trump 1.0 that Xi considers this to be China's superpower. No democracy can go toe-to-toe with China in a trade war, because the democracies will get weary of the fight long before the communists would lose any power or feel repercussions.
 
nycfan said:
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We know people who watch FOX News don't tune into more liberal news shows so when news media fail to tell the truth you get things like this. I mean if FOX told their viewers that the economy was doing well would Trump have won? They made their choice. Once you start lying you have to keep on lying.
 
tonman said:
We know people who watch FOX News don't tune into more liberal news shows so when news media fail to tell the truth you get things like this. I mean if FOX told their viewers that the economy was doing well would Trump have won? They made their choice. Once you start lying you have to keep on lying.
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“The market was up, inflation was down, cost of goods were decreasing and wages were up. The American people weren’t buying it and voted the Democrats out!”

MAGA dipsgits get everything they deserve.
 
superrific said:
Why the "perhaps"? That's been the CCP's economic policy for thirty years. And I recall reading somewhere during Trump 1.0 that Xi considers this to be China's superpower. No democracy can go toe-to-toe with China in a trade war, because the democracies will get weary of the fight long before the communists would lose any power or feel repercussions.
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A century is a mighty long time …
 
In Trump 1.0, he pointed to new highs in U.S. markets to "prove" that he had built the greatest economy the world had ever known.

Trumpers used to share those posts to show how great their leader was doing. Of course, the markets hit many all time highs under Obama as well (which it tends to do without recession) and Trump said worst economy ever.
 
nycfan said:


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Kraftyheel89 said:
In Trump 1.0, he pointed to new highs in U.S. markets to "prove" that he had built the greatest economy the world had ever known.

Trumpers used to share those posts to show how great their leader was doing. Of course, the markets hit many all time highs under Obama as well (which it tends to do without recession) and Trump said worst economy ever.
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He botched the Obama economy; no reason to think he won't botch the Biden economy🤕
 
These guys really don’t understand how this works:

Speaking on Meet the Press on Sunday, Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, said that tariffs would help “grow our economy in a way we’ve never grown before.”

Asked about forecasts from banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, who say a recession in the next 12 months has become more likely, Mr. Lutnick said that Americans should not be bracing for a recession.

“I would never bet on recession,” he said. “No chance.”

Mr. Lutnick claimed that the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce government deficits would drive interest rates down, while drilling more oil would also bring down the price of energy. He acknowledged that tariffs could increase the price of foreign goods, but said that domestic goods would get cheaper.

Many economists have expressed other views, saying that tariffs on foreign products can help U.S. companies become more profitable by giving them space to raise their prices, as well.

“Foreign goods may get a little more expensive,” Mr. Lutnick said. “But American goods are going to get cheaper, and you’re going to be helping Americans by buying American.”
 
nycfan said:


A century is a mighty long time …
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nycfan said:

Trump's economic shock therapy​



“President Trump believes it's worth risking pain to achieve his medium-term goal of rewiring the U.S. economy. He is attempting a form of economic shock therapy, while accepting there could be collateral damage.

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Couple these 2 together and we have a massive change in government, one which Trump intends to be President over indefinitely. When he dies not sure who he will pass the torch too. Maybe he downloads his brain to a Trump AI bot and he rules forever.
 
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This is far from certainty (and the most certain economists predicting recession or recovery have been wrong plenty of times before), but Trump has effectively rattled investors and analysts so far, especially the ones who previously directed others to “take Trump seriously but not literally” and assured us that his obviously insane claims about tariffs are all about negotiating leverage, not his true beliefs or intentions. I think that is why his foreign policy behavior has also rattled the markets — that was the earlier sign that he does in fact mean what he says and this time doesn’t have anyone around him to stop him from acting on his weird 19th century economic theories and rash pre-WWI foreign policy notions.
 
nycfan said:

Trump's economic shock therapy​



“President Trump believes it's worth risking pain to achieve his medium-term goal of rewiring the U.S. economy. He is attempting a form of economic shock therapy, while accepting there could be collateral damage.

IMG_5458.jpeg

IMG_5459.jpeg
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I've wondered if one reason Trump is doing this is because he knew the P/E ratios were very high (stock market is the economy to him) and predicted a fall in the markets so he wanted it to happen quickly so he can blame Biden.

Remember he did say that the markets were going to crash either before or after the election during the campaign.

The thing is, stocks are not the economy and a moderate market correction doesn't have to mean a recession but he is pushing us to a recession. In either case, he is going to get far more than he wanted in both the market and the wider economy.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
I've wondered if one reason Trump is doing this is because he knew the P/E ratios were very high (stock market is the economy to him) and predicted a fall in the markets so he wanted it to happen quickly so he can blame Biden.

Remember he did say that the markets were going to crash either before or after the election during the campaign.

The thing is, stocks are not the economy and a moderate market correction doesn't have to mean a recession but he is pushing us to a recession. In either case, he is going to get far more than he wanted in both the market and the wider economy.
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Trump will blame Biden even if a recession holds off until Fall 2028.
 
Bobfripp said:
Trump will blame Biden even if a recession holds off until Fall 2028.
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Of course but he knows that argument is a lot stronger if the recession starts in his first six months.

And in normal circumstances he would be right. Whatever control a president has over the economy, it wouldn't normally happen so quickly and so drastically. But that only applies to a president who isn't seemingly trying to create one.
 
uncmba said:
“Foreign goods may get a little more expensive,” Mr. Lutnick said. “But American goods are going to get cheaper, and you’re going to be helping Americans by buying American.”
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Huh?
 
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