Economic News

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nycfan said:
The article he links basically argues that the MSM is mean to Trump, their drumbeat of negativity is the problem driving down consumer sentiment, not Trump’s glorious policies and people need to chill and let Trump remake the economy how he sees fit because sure, maybe there will be some pain but that is the cost of weening us off over-reliance on government spending on stupid stuff. Sure, no one will bat 1.000 but just relax and let Trump do what he thinks is best and ignore the media panic.
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Sam Elliott Hello GIF by GritTV
 


“…
Analysts said fears of a wider conflict that could endanger crude flows have helped rebuild a modest premium. At the same time, upside is limited as traders await Trump’s scheduled phone call Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin over a potential cease-fire in Ukraine.

“Energy markets will be watching closely for any progress — particularly whether a potential peace deal might include the resumption of some Russian energy flows. This would be more impactful for natural gas rather than oil, given that the scope to increase natural gas flows is much bigger relative to oil,” said Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity strategists at ING, in a note.…”
 
MOUNTAINH33L said:
I'm going to need someone to explain that one to me lol.
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Did you see the first Austin Powers?

As long as MAGA people and invertebrate Republican members of congress are still supporting me no matter what I say or do (when they would never allow a Democrat to do the exact same thing) while at the same time I fiddle with the levers of power of the federal government and national policy in a consequence-free right wing media environment, I’ll be sound as a pound!
 
nycfan said:

“Higher U.S. tariffs on imports are set to slow economic growth and push inflation higher around the world, with further increases threatening an even more severe downturn, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

In a quarterly report published Monday, the Paris-based research body cut its growth forecasts for most of the world’s largest economies over this year and next, the main exceptions being China, Argentina and Turkey.

… Its largest downgrades were reserved for the two economies that trade most heavily with the U.S. and face significantly higher barriers to their exports.

The OECD now expects Mexico’s economy to contract by 1.3% this year and 0.6% in 2026, having previously forecast growth of 1.2% and 2.8%.

For Canada, it now expects growth of 0.7% in both 2025 and 2026, having previously forecast expansions of 2%.

The OECD said the U.S. economy will now likely grow by 2.2% this year and 1.6% next. It previously forecast growth of 2.4% and 2.1%. …”
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So, the MAGAs voted for rising inflation, slower growth, lost markets for our businesses, decreased benefits for social security and Medicare, higher deficits, and a possible recession.
Did I miss anything?

And as a reminder, the benefit to all this is so Musk and a few other already worth hundreds of millions of dollars or more can get just a little more money. Great job!
 
nycfan said:
The article he links basically argues that the MSM is mean to Trump, their drumbeat of negativity is the problem driving down consumer sentiment, not Trump’s glorious policies and people need to chill and let Trump remake the economy how he sees fit because sure, maybe there will be some pain but that is the cost of weening us off over-reliance on government spending on stupid stuff. Sure, no one will bat 1.000 but just relax and let Trump do what he thinks is best and ignore the media panic.
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We were talking to a snowbirding neighbor who just got back from Florida. They said the Americans they were talking to had no idea that there was large scale Canadian resentment (they were wondering why it was so less crowded than previous years) and couldn't figure out why the stock market was doing poorly. It seems the Fox News bubble is largely ignoring the causes of the economic downturn.
 
altmin said:
We were talking to a snowbirding neighbor who just got back from Florida. They said the Americans they were talking to had no idea that there was large scale Canadian resentment (they were wondering why it was so less crowded than previous years) and couldn't figure out why the stock market was doing poorly. It seems the Fox News bubble is largely ignoring the causes of the economic downturn.
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It is still all Biden’s fault over on Fox and Trump is just joking with Canada, no biggie, but Canadian liberals have TDS and no sense of humor.
 
Housing starts data better than forecast:





A mixed bag but not indicative of widespread recessionary pressures.
 
Big money in the stock market is in complete denial about the path the Trump economy is on. The 10% correction in S&P and Dow (15% or more I believe on the NASDAQ) is barely the beginning. I also think Trump loyalists are standing pat on investments in support of Trump.

A 10% correction is nothing. We average about one of those at least once per year, even in very good years for the markets. The coming Trump economy is NOT already priced into the market.

See the non-political non-biased readings and forecasts by a recent survey of The Fed members and analysts.

By the way, even Warren Buffet is very cautious right now (the best ever) and he teaches buy and hold. Fix News and the Trump Admin is spewing garbage, though they keep throwing out pre-manufactured excuses like "detox period" "re-balancing economy" "short term volotilty for longer term prosperity" yada yada yada. My favorite is meathead coach from Alabamer, "no pain, no gain."

Of course, all that spin presupposes that these tariffs help in the long run, and these massive Federal cuts are well thought out through cost benefit analysis. I've never seen a chainsaw in all my years of studying cost-benefit analysis in Econ. studies.

 
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finesse said:
Be my guess. If you've been planning it, getting it out of the ground this spring is the thing. See where things are late summer.
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Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
 
superrific said:
Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
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Long retired and out of touch. Still, I doubt if the time that's best for foundation and masonry work has changed or the generally best work weather. Old and quite possibly outdated experience says homebuilding, especially spec stuff, will take an early hit.
 
nycfan said:
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Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
 
nycfan said:

Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
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Trump is an idiot. He just is.
 
I expect GDP growth to be substantially less than 1.7%. If the April 2 tariffs are as advertised, it will be a miracle not to have negative growth for the year.
 
superrific said:
I expect GDP growth to be substantially less than 1.7%. If the April 2 tariffs are as advertised, it will be a miracle not to have negative growth for the year.
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Here is my prediction. The April 2 tariffs won't be as advertised. At least not for very long.
 
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