Economic News

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heelinhell said:
ugly close for the stock market...

Are markets starting to see the adverse impact of the Trump tax aka tariffs ?

Are the markets anticipating the adverse impact of Trump's big beautiful tax bill which will add trillions to the national debt with no benefit for working and middle class families ?
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I don't think there's any logic to the markets right now. It's literally a bunch of chickens running around the barnyard right after their heads were chopped off. Up or down is a roll of the dice because nobody knows what to do.
 
Killing businesses
Hampering the world economy
Shutting down markets
Shrinking GDP
Massively growing the deficit
Hurting ratings on US Treasuries

Tell me again how this reflects conservative values.

Immigration? Trump’s policies here are also terrible for the economy.
 
At a conference this week. Chief economist for the AIA presented. Housing outlook is not good. Residential architectural billings which typically are the leading indicator for construction (effects show up in residential before commercial), fell off a cliff this quarter.

Recession prediction up from 25% to 45%, which actually seems low.
 
bassydude77 said:
At a conference this week. Chief economist for the AIA presented. Housing outlook is not good. Residential architectural billings which typically are the leading indicator for construction (effects show up in residential before commercial), fell off a cliff this quarter.

Recession prediction up from 25% to 45%, which actually seems low.
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Well that sucks for the construction industry
 
fortune.com

U.S. economy is experiencing 'death by a thousand cuts', says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says Moody's recent debt downgrade continues a drip of bad fiscal news for the American economic outlook.
fortune.com fortune.com
America’s national debt, which currently stands at more than $36.2 trillion, is increasingly rising on economists’ agendas. Their fear is that as the nation’s debt burden increases, alongside the interest payments to service the debt, the economy will not grow fast enough to sustain the spending.

Such fears were reflected in a Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit last week from Aaa to Aa1. Moody’s justified: “While we recognize the US’ significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics.”

The downgrade is yet another thorn in the side of America’s fiscal health, despite protestations from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the market should take little heed of Moody’s news.

As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid put it in a note seen by Fortune this morning: “Yesterday felt like we were somewhere along the line of a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ with regards to the U.S. fiscal situation. Hard to know where in that thousand we are but probably much nearer a thousand than at zero even as yesterday saw an initial sell-off reverse as the session went on.

“At the end of the day the loss of the final U.S. triple-A rating late on Friday night doesn’t change anything much immediately but it keeps the drip, drip, drip of poor fiscal news building up against the debt sustainability dam in the background.”
 
heelinhell said:
I'm a retired Registered Financial Consultant and would be happy to meet with you and develop a retirement plan if you live within driving distance of Carrboro/Chapel Hill. I provide my services pro bono :D
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Thank you for the offer, but I live in North Atlanta.

But, if you have any recommendations for finding a good advisor, those would be greatly appreciated.

Also, any warning signs so I know to run would be helpful.

We almost went with my MILs advisor once, until he swindled her out of $100k. So I'm very hesitant to let anyone have any kind of access to my money.
 
UNCatTech said:
Thank you for the offer, but I live in North Atlanta.

But, if you have any recommendations for finding a good advisor, those would be greatly appreciated.
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UNCatTech said:
Also, any warning signs so I know to run would be helpful.

We almost went with my MILs advisor once, until he swindled her out of $100k. So I'm very hesitant to let anyone have any kind of access to my money.
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I do not personally know any advisors in Atlanta so I can't help you with that.

You are unlikely to find an advisor who works pro bono 🥲 so my recommendation is that you narrow your search to find a fee for service advisor who will have a fiduciary responsibility to advise you based upon your best interest and not in order to line his/her pockets with commissions and management fees. Hourly fees range between $150-300

I suspect that your financial situation is not complex and financial planning for retirement probably doesn't require advice from costly advisors.

When I first meet a client I generate a retirement plan with my software using the client financial data provided to me. It takes me about 30 minutes to generate a beautiful 42 page colorful plan with lots of graphs and other bells and whistles. I put it in a nice binder and tease them saying that a financial planner would charge you around $1500 or more ( no joke ) :rolleyes:

Because you are a fellow UNC brother and I think we have had a connection regarding your daughter before ? If you have a genuine concern, I have a proposal :

I am willing to pay for you to travel to Carrboro for a meeting which would include an overnight hotel stay, an evening meal ,next day breakfast, and cost of gas which does not worry me because Trump has made it a cost nothing burger

If interested send me a personal message. If skeptical ask zooview

Either way, I love you like a brother
 
nycfan said:


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Waller was appointed by Trump and is MAGA. The economics department at Washington University is deeply and historically "freshwater" -- i.e. conservative.

I would not trust any of these judgments, especially the one time price increase part. That's just not how inflation works, ever. I can't think of the last time the economy experienced a one-time price increase that didn't spread everywhere. The oil shocks of the 70s were one-time events but they created inflation for a decade.

I am also deeply skeptical that firms are pausing but not cancelling plans. I call bullshit on that. For one thing, pauses are often the same as cancellations. Second, that's an impossible judgment to make right now. Nobody is making decisions because of uncertainty. Cancelling is making a decision. So everything is paused. Some of these pauses are going to be cancellations, almost surely, unless Trump's economic policies end up just restoring the status quo.

I cannot understand how anyone can look at this economy and think, "if tariffs stay at 10% everything is good." That's utter bullshit.
 
farce© said:
So now ZooView is a considered a credible reference?

Low bar! 😂
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ok wise guy 🤪

Zooview knows that when I offer such a proposal , I take it to the bank...

Maybe he will come to my defense or maybe not :)

and in my humble opinion Zoo is the gold standard when it comes to an endorsement on any topic:cool:
 
HIH
Better handle by way graphics et al but honestly my wife and I are old school and she's 5 years older than me but we figured that we'd xout about the same time!?! We're both hard working self employed but haven't been very knowledgeable about how we navigate how to use our equity to benefit our children. Does that resonate enough for a new thead.?
 
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