Economic News

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ColdBlueSteel said:
Thanks, but is that all we’ve got on why this is bad? Was expecting a little more substance from the board that knows for sure what’s best for everybody and everything.
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The transaction itself isn't bad. Two things about it stand out:

1. It's precisely the opposite of what Trump has been thumping on the campaign trail. Usually in these sorts of deals, the foreign buyer reduces production in the acquired US plant and fills the demand with the more profitable production at home.

2. Why did Trump greenlight it after a long delay? You think maybe it was because he was waiting for the check to clear, so to speak. I mean, Trump is doing corruption in the open. He pardons anyone doing corruption. It seems that he simply does not think corruption is bad. He calls it smart.

So even if the deal is good on the merits (and I have no opinion on whether it is "good" although it does help my portfolio), the presumptive corruption makes it bad.

Does that help?
 
ColdBlueSteel said:
Thanks, but is that all we’ve got on why this is bad? Was expecting a little more substance from the board that knows for sure what’s best for everybody and everything.
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I think the concern is that a foreign country will control the U.S. steel industry, potentially limiting us in time of war. Steel workers had argued that the company would potentially go bankrupt if not allowed to merge with Nippon.
 
uncleradar said:
I think the concern is that a foreign country will control the U.S. steel industry, potentially limiting us in time of war.
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Exactly. Literally Trump (and Biden before him) put restrictions on steel imports because they didn't want the US to be dependent on foreign suppliers. So for Trump to authorize this transaction, it goes against everything he's been saying. Usually, when someone says A and does A and then for some unexplained reason does the opposite of A, there's a payoff under the table involved. Trump being Trump, he could just be incoherent but I suspect there were bribes paid.
 
superrific said:
Exactly. Literally Trump (and Biden before him) put restrictions on steel imports because they didn't want the US to be dependent on foreign suppliers. So for Trump to authorize this transaction, it goes against everything he's been saying. Usually, when someone says A and does A and then for some unexplained reason does the opposite of A, there's a payoff under the table involved. Trump being Trump, he could just be incoherent but I suspect there were bribes paid.
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Reads like the payoff may be in the form of investment, modernization, technology transfer, stronger competitiveness (against China), and stronger US-Japan relations.
 
ColdBlueSteel said:
Reads like the payoff may be in the form of investment, modernization, technology transfer, stronger competitiveness (against China), and stronger US-Japan relations.
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None of that. Maybe the US Japan relationship, but:

1. Asset purchases are not investments in productive capacity. It's only an investment-promoting deal if it leads to more investment in actual US plants than would have otherwise occurred.

2. Modernization and technology transfer? These are steel mills, not chip fabs. I know, milling isn't without its technology, but it's also an incredibly mature industry and the mill tech doesn't move that fast.

3. Stronger competitiveness is not actually a thing. That's the sort of bullshit that every corporate merger team promises, when they can't come up with any actual benefits. There is no reason why (Nippon + US Steel) should be more competitive than (Nippon) + (US Steel).
 
ColdBlueSteel said:
…the board that knows for sure what’s best for everybody and everything.
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Rich, coming from one of the MAGA crowd.
“I alone can fix it.” Who said that? Was it the same person who is dragging what was the strongest economy in the world four months ago into a place where economists are predicting recession and stagflation?
I don’t know everything, but I certainly know what Trump is doing to our economy isn’t good. Is there even one Trump voter who can see it? Is there even one Trump voter who thinks they don’t know more than every expert in every field in existence?
 


Probably some seasonal bump there for end of school year, so mostly static at this point … still a slower to hire and hesitant to fire job market.

 
nycfan said:


Probably some seasonal bump there for end of school year, so mostly static at this point … still a slower to hire and hesitant to fire job market.
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And most of the federal layoffs and affiliated contractors aren’t yet figured into the equation, since (like me) most of those being laid off have some severance package to hold them over for a few months. Let’s see what things look like in June, July, August.
 
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About what was expected



Consumer behavior indicates they think the economy is worse that economists and the Stock Markets suggest … might be some lagging reduction after pre-tariff purchasing
 
nycfan said:
Consumer behavior indicates they think the economy is worse that economists and the Stock Markets suggest … might be some lagging reduction after pre-tariff purchasing
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Maybe. But it's also true that if consumer spending was higher, the inflation would be worse. Especially since the tariffs are not even across the board, there could be some reduction in certain sectors because of excessively high prices that isn't matched elsewhere. I mean, if you're planning on buying a car, and prices go up 10%, you might skip it but you're not going to spend that money elsewhere.

It's also possible that people slowed down because they wanted to wait until after TACO.
 
nycfan said:
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Trump will continue pounding the table for the FRB to drop interest rates, not making the connection that the Fed rates and mortgage rates don’t work in perfect tandem.
The Fed dropped rates three times last year and mortgage rates budged a little after the first one, but then climbed back up once Trump was elected because the bond market predicted Trump would stall the economy due to his stupid tariff nonsense, and also it expected increased deficit spending.
The Fed was right on both counts.

Once again, all Trump had to do was go and play golf for four years and the economy would be booming. But he is actively fucking it all up. Voters should be furious.
 

Cloaked in technicalities, the implication of the “revenge” measure, as it’s quickly becoming known, is clear to analysts: If signed into law, it would further drive away foreign investors at a time when their once ironclad confidence in Treasury bonds and other US assets has already been shaken by Trump’s erratic trade policies and the nation’s deteriorating fiscal accounts.

For now, the market reaction to Section 899 appears muted, at best. Still, US assets as a whole have been underperformers this year as Trump’s policies put a dent in the narrative of the “America exceptionalism.”

The S&P 500 is up about 0.4% this year, compared with a 20% gain in the German benchmark and a 18% rally in Hong Kong. The Bloomberg Dollar Index slumped about 7%. The US Treasuries returned 2%, trailing the 5% gain in the global government bonds in dollar terms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
 
heelinhell said:
The S&P 500 is up about 0.4% this year, compared with a 20% gain in the German benchmark and a 18% rally in Hong Kong. The Bloomberg Dollar Index slumped about 7%. The US Treasuries returned 2%, trailing the 5% gain in the global government bonds in dollar terms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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Is Trump aware that foreign markets are kicking his ass?
 
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