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I’m assuming MAGAs will say that we are still in Biden’s economy. Just so I know, when does this become Trump’s economy?
 
lawtig02 said:
I'm pulling for economic success. But I'm not sure a president has ever been dealt a better hand than the one Trump inherited in January. You'd have to be an absolute incompetent to fuck that up. A drunk wombat would been able to achieve 3%+ GDP growth from January 2025 through January 2029.

And yet, here we are.
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There hasn't been a 3% GDP year since 2005 (excluding the Covid rebound year of 2021), and there hasn't been sustained 3% GDP YoY since the 1990s. Even if Trump were the greatest economic mind of his generation, it would be highly unrealistic to assume 3% GDP growth in this stage of our development.
 
Calheel said:
There hasn't been a 3% GDP year since 2005 (excluding the Covid rebound year of 2021), and there hasn't been sustained 3% GDP YoY since the 1990s. Even if Trump were the greatest economic mind of his generation, it would be highly unrealistic to assume 3% GDP growth in this stage of our development.
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2015, 2018 and 2024 were all just a hair short of 3%, and several other years have been north of 2.7%. So I'll revise my comment to 2.7%, and the point remains.
 
lawtig02 said:
2015, 2018 and 2024 were all just a hair short of 3%, and several other years have been north of 2.7%. So I'll revise my comment to 2.7%, and the point remains.
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Even a 2.7% average across four years would be highly optimistic. We are basically in a 2%-2.5% GDP world these days. That is why I laugh when all the Trumpers tried to defend the BBB by saying that growth would overcome the OMB budget deficit forecasts. They were getting on TV predicting that we would have sustained 4% GDP growth as a result of the BBB. It is just fantasy land.
 
Calheel said:
Even a 2.7% average across four years would be highly optimistic. We are basically in a 2%-2.5% GDP world these days. That is why I laugh when all the Trumpers tried to defend the BBB by saying that growth would overcome the OMB budget deficit forecasts. They were getting on TV predicting that we would have sustained 4% GDP growth as a result of the BBB. It is just fantasy land.
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I get that. I really do. And I agree completely about the OMB projections. But I think we're forgetting what a solid economy Trump inherited in January. Excluding 2020 and 2021, YOY growth was 2.51% in 2022 and 2.89% in 2023 --

U.S. GDP Growth Rate | Historical Chart & Data

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the...
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net

There is literally nothing I can think of that has happened since January that SHOULD have impacted that trend line. AI developments are by far the most important thing happening right now, but I'm fairly confident they would only drive growth higher ceteris paribus.

I get your point that 3% is overly ambitious. Totally fair. I don't think 2.7% is too much to expect, though, and I'd put a shit ton of money on the chances 2025 comes in way below that.
 
lawtig02 said:
I get that. I really do. And I agree completely about the OMB projections. But I think we're forgetting what a solid economy Trump inherited in January. Excluding 2020 and 2021, YOY growth was 2.51% in 2022 and 2.89% in 2023 --

U.S. GDP Growth Rate | Historical Chart & Data

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the...
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net

There is literally nothing I can think of that has happened since January that SHOULD have impacted that trend line. AI developments are by far the most important thing happening right now, but I'm fairly confident they would only drive growth higher ceteris paribus.

I get your point that 3% is overly ambitious. Totally fair. I don't think 2.7% is too much to expect, though, and I'd put a shit ton of money on the chances 2025 comes in way below that.
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I don't think there's that much difference between 2.5% and 3%. I mean, it's consequential over time as a long-term growth rate, but in terms of the next year or two, it's mostly noise.

We're at about 1% now. Maybe 1.2%.
 
superrific said:
I don't think there's that much difference between 2.5% and 3%. I mean, it's consequential over time as a long-term growth rate, but in terms of the next year or two, it's mostly noise.

We're at about 1% now. Maybe 1.2%.
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I'd agree with you on a quarter over quarter basis. But lawtig said a wombat could get 3% from 2025-2029. And if we could actually get sustained GDP growth of 3% for the next four years, that would be huge -- much bigger than 2.5% for four years.

I also don't think we will average 1.2% GDP growth over the next four years. I suspect we will be around 2% average for the four years of Trump.
 
Calheel said:
I'd agree with you on a quarter over quarter basis. But lawtig said a wombat could get 3% from 2025-2029. And if we could actually get sustained GDP growth of 3% for the next four years, that would be huge -- much bigger than 2.5% for four years.

I also don't think we will average 1.2% GDP growth over the next four years. I suspect we will be around 2% average for the four years of Trump.
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1. 1.03^4 = 1.12. 1.025^4 = 1.10. It's not that big a difference. I mean, I get your point but if lawtig was exaggerating, I think you are also, just a bit.
2. 2% over the next four years is very optimistic, in my view. The economy is getting worse, not better. I would say that we might get to 2% by the end of his term, but cumulatively it will be much smaller than that.

Maybe I'm a bit pessimistic, but you know how we say, "the president doesn't affect the economy that much"? Yeah, that was back before Smoot Hawley level taxes, pissing off our trade partners to where we are getting boycotted, deporting hundreds of thousands of productive workers, downsizing the government by a few hundred thousand, reversing investment guarantees, killing off growth industries like solar and wind.
 
Last year, Trump claimed downward revisions were caused by a sinister Biden plot to over-inflate initial reports. Then, Biden got caught, and revisions were necessary to correct.

So, was Trump forcing bogus numbers the last few months in the same nefarious fashion? Hmmmmm?
 
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