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1moretimeagain said:
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That's because they know they can't really cut spending that will impact their base, and they refuse to reduce the defense budget like Clinton did. Also they always offer tax cuts to the richest Americans and manage to convince the working class fools who vote for them that those tax cuts are the magic beans that will propel the economy to make the working folks prosperous. It's 40+ years later and those stupid SOBs are still buying the idea of "trickle down." Why would Republicans change their sales pitch if fools keep buying it?
 
We have now finally reached equilibrium in the markets (after adjusting for interest) from when I went all cash in July 25. Should I get back in or continue to watch the falling knife?

It seems very hard to make the right call in the Trump economy.
 
Calheel said:
We have now finally reached equilibrium in the markets (after adjusting for interest) from when I went all cash in July 25. Should I get back in or continue to watch the falling knife?

It seems very hard to make the right call in the Trump economy.
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Yeah market is scary right now as no one really knows what tomorrow will bring. If this was 20 years ago the uncertainty around world events like we have going on right now would have taken the market much further down IMO.

I think the biggest difference now is that investors in general have learned to buy dips. They have largely bought into the narrative that the market always goes up over time (which of course is historically correct) so might as well buy when there are dips. FOMO on upturns in the market has largely replaced fear of getting crushed when times are uncertain.
 
Delta74 said:
Yeah market is scary right now as no one really knows what tomorrow will bring. If this was 20 years ago the uncertainty around world events like we have going on right now would have taken the market much further down IMO.

I think the biggest difference now is that investors in general have learned to buy dips. They have largely bought into the narrative that the market always goes up over time (which of course is historically correct) so might as well buy when there are dips. FOMO on upturns in the market has largely replaced fear of getting crushed when times are uncertain.
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AI has done a lot to prop up the market the last two years, and it feels a lot like 2000 in terms of being overhyped. But then again, people who shorted Tesla for years generally lost their ass because the market can be irrational for a long time.
 
When Trump canceled his 48 hour deadline, extending it by 5 days, markets celebrated the TACO because it meant the war wasn’t escalated.

However, now that Trump has added another 10 days, the market is concerned as it appears to mean Hormuz will just remain closed for two more weeks.
 
1moretimeagain said:
When Trump canceled his 48 hour deadline, extending it by 5 days, markets celebrated the TACO because it meant the war wasn’t escalated.

However, now that Trump has added another 10 days, the market is concerned as it appears to mean Hormuz will just remain closed for two more weeks.
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I guess he should have gone with the seven days the Iranians wanted. :rolleyes:
 
Calheel said:
We have now finally reached equilibrium in the markets (after adjusting for interest) from when I went all cash in July 25. Should I get back in or continue to watch the falling knife?

It seems very hard to make the right call in the Trump economy.
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You and I have been on the same page. I think the right call continues to be cash is king and investing in widow and orphan stocks that pay reliable dividends.

The bond market suggests we are getting closer to a recession and the stock market has reached correction and seems to be on its way to a bear market.

I stick with the Buffet rules:

1 ) Don't lose money
2 ) don't forget rule #1
 
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“…For weeks, while missiles and drones flew around one of the world’s key energy producing regions, investors’ hopes for a quick resolution buffered stocks from steep declines. A selloff in bonds stayed in line with past conflicts. A run-up in crude futures appeared to lag far behind the scope of a disruption that could be the most severe oil shock in history.

But an intensifying rout in recent days pulled the S&P 500 down for a fifth straight week to its lowest levels since August and dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq composite into correction—off more than 10% from their recent highs. President Trump’s latest social media post on potential off-ramps from a wider war wasn’t enough to arrest crude prices’ climb Friday, a sign that oil traders are increasingly bracing for more turbulence ahead.

Now, the Pentagon is weighing whether to send10,000 additional ground troops to the region while it pursues peace talks with Tehran. The conflicting signals have forced investors the world over to pare back risks and study how long—and how hard—wars from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Gulf War in 1990 dented the global economy.

“Peak panic is yet to come,” said Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro. “Panic by definition is irrational. Markets don’t know how to price it.”…”
 
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