lawtig02
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I would certainly like to see his articulation of the emergency that justifies this enormous expansion of executive power. I’m guessing he doesn’t even bother to give us one.
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- Thread starter nycfan
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ChileG
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what a fucking dumbass
superrific
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I don't care. I hope he does as many tariffs as he needs to get erect.
The FO stage is required for the FA to end.
ChileG
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So far, the scorecard is looking very bad for Trump. While his acolytes chirp that this is all part of his “negotiation” style, he is actively hurting the economy and everyday Americans.
superrific
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All the younguns who voted for Trump because housing costs must be loving the fact that home mortgage rates are the highest since last summer, and trending the wrong way.
ChileG
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After two rate cuts.
And the Fed is expected to have fewer cuts this year than previously anticipated as a direct result of Trump.
How is his lunacy helping anyone?
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“… The consumer price index rose 0.4% in December from November and finished the year up 2.9%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected the CPI to advance 0.3% last month from November and 2.9% from December 2023.
… So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, rose 0.2% from November and finished the year up 3.2%. Economists had expected increases of 0.3% and 3.3%, respectively.
Inflation as measured by the annual CPI peaked at roughly 9% in June 2022, its highest level in four decades, fueled by supply-chain snarls and labor shortages. Over the following year it subsided rapidly, falling to about 3% in June 2023 after aggressive interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
But inflation’s descent since then has been slow and bumpy. …”
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“… The “core” measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices to give a better sense of the underlying trend, was more encouraging: The index rose 3.2 percent from a year earlier after three straight months of 3.3 percent gains. Forecasters had not expected core inflation to slow.
…
Even before Wednesday’s data, officials at the Fed had voiced increasing concern about the slow progress on inflation. At the same time, the continued strength of the labor market — including data released last week showing unexpectedly strong job growth in December — has made policymakers less worried that their efforts to rein in price increases were leading to layoffs or causing damage to the broader economy.
As a result, investors widely expect the central bank to hold interest rates steady at its meeting later this month. That would break a streak of three consecutive rate cuts, and some forecasters now say that policymakers may not lower rates at all this year. …”
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I.M.F. Raises U.S. Economic Forecast as Other Regions Lag
It is projecting 2.7 percent growth for 2025. But uncertainty about pending Trump policies looms over the global economic trajectory.“… The I.M.F. projects 2.7 percent U.S. economic growth in 2025 in its latest World Economic Outlook report, up from an estimate of 2.2 percent. That stands in stark contrast to reduced growth projections for the euro area, which the fund attributed in large part to weakness in the manufacturing sector and heightened political uncertainty.
“The big story is the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters this week. “We have stronger potential output growth in the U.S. compared to prepandemic, and we have weaker potential growth in other areas, like the euro area or China.”
New economic forecasts released by the fund on Friday build on its analysis in October, which showed that concerns about a postpandemic global contraction appear to have been averted, even though growth remains sluggish in many countries. Economists at the I.M.F. expect global output to grow 3.3 percent this year and next, according to the updated report, slightly above the fund’s previous projections.
… Looser fiscal policy, including tax cuts, could boost U.S. growth in the short term, the I.M.F. said in its report. “In the near term, the risks could increase the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world that is already underway,” Mr. Gourinchas added.
But the fund warned that expansionary measures could disrupt markets and the economy in the longer run. And while potential deregulation under President-elect Donald J. Trump could spur investment and short-term growth, the I.M.F. said an “excessive” rollback of regulations could eventually create “boom-bust dynamics” for the United States, with spillover effects elsewhere. …”
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Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher
Survey finds tariffs, tax cuts and immigration policy could weigh on prices for next two years
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On the plus side, economists were 100% sure there would be a recession during Biden’s term, so maybe this means that inflation will magically disappear despite Trump policies …
heelslegup
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Trumo 2 polcies will continue Trump 1 policies which essentially increase power and wealth inequality in the US. Poor/working class/middle class lose power and wealth which gets shifted more and more to wealthy and plutocrats. Tariffs + excessive dereg + tax cuts designed to give most of benefits to wealthy.
The tax cuts in particular have an outized generational impact owing to the law of compouning. Rich get helped both from the personal tax cuts and also from the copr tax cuts since corp take that money and instead of lowering prices or hiring workers, instead do stock buybacks and dividends to raise stock proces which helps wealthy since top 1 and 10% of wealthy own most of stock market wealth % wise.
Tariffs lead to price increases which wealthy can easily handle but not so poor/we/mc
The tax cuts in particular have an outized generational impact owing to the law of compouning. Rich get helped both from the personal tax cuts and also from the copr tax cuts since corp take that money and instead of lowering prices or hiring workers, instead do stock buybacks and dividends to raise stock proces which helps wealthy since top 1 and 10% of wealthy own most of stock market wealth % wise.
Tariffs lead to price increases which wealthy can easily handle but not so poor/we/mc
superrific
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Trump’s Return Nudges Economists’ Inflation Outlook Higher
Survey finds tariffs, tax cuts and immigration policy could weigh on prices for next two years
——
On the plus side, economists were 100% sure there would be a recession during Biden’s term, so maybe this means that inflation will magically disappear despite Trump policies …
1. It is not true that 100% of economists were 100% sure there would be a recession. Not even close. In fact, I don't know of any economist who was 100% sure of that.
2. I honestly don't understand that 0.4% inflation estimate. Maybe they are modeling something like 10% tariffs even as Trump is promising something higher. Ironically, a 10% worldwide tariff would probably be less inflationary than a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico. Or maybe they are figuring that some industries will just disappear, so the would-be doubling of auto prices (for instance) are just excluded.
0.4% is just incredibly low considering that imports are 14% of GDP. If you tariff all of that at 10%, that's 1.4% right off the bat. Now, the market will adjust and imports will be reduced (via consumer choice and currency adjustment), but domestic firms will be able to increase their prices in absence of foreign competition. I would estimate that in a lot of industries, a 10% tariff would lead to at least a 1.5-2% price increase in domestic prices.
3. It is possible that they are modeling the decline in growth (including recession possibility) from the tariffs, which would be counter-inflationary but also make Americans poorer.