Florida State Biorhythms, 7 pm in FLA

[BillOfRights]

Looking at those numbers it looks like Withers, Lubin, Davis, Cadeau, Trimble should get the lions share of PT. Imarite widdat line up.
I mean, that’s what the +/- numbers indicate, correct?

But I’m liking Drake, Lubin JWit for the front court these days.

The data is what it is. It's up to us to determine what it tells us. When I see data that doesn't match my perception, I ask "Why?".

Why are Powell's numbers off when it seems he's playing well? I think we all understand he's much more effective, and the team is much better, when Powell is at the 3 with 2 bigs. When he's forced to play the 4, his production and the team's success suffers. Powell's numbers have been rising rapidly the last 3 games (since Withers was inserted at the 4).

Why are Jackson's so low when his offense is spectacular? Defense seems an area to investigate.

Why are Lubin's numbers so high? He's super efficient on offense and an underrated defender, even at 6'8".

Here is a chart I use:



I'm open to learning how I can improve this, so suggestions are welcome.

 

[BillOfRights]

The data is what it is. It's up to us to determine what it tells us. When I see data that doesn't match my perception, I ask "Why?".

Why are Powell's numbers off when it seems he's playing well? I think we all understand he's much more effective, and the team is much better, when Powell is at the 3 with 2 bigs. When he's forced to play the 4, his production and the team's success suffers. Powell's numbers have been rising rapidly the last 3 games (since Withers was inserted at the 4).

Why are Jackson's so low when his offense is spectacular? Defense seems an area to investigate.

Why are Lubin's numbers so high? He's super efficient on offense and an underrated defender, even at 6'8".

Here is a chart I use:



I'm open to learning how I can improve this, so suggestions are welcome.

FWIW, minutes might look like this (+ or - 5 min depending on foul trouble, matchups, who's hot, etc):

1 - Davis 20, Cadeau 20

2 - Trimble 15, Jackson 20, Davis 5

3 - Powell 25, Trimble 15

4 - Withers 30, Powell 5, Tyson 5

5 - Lubin 25, Washington 15

 

[Bigs23]

FWIW, minutes might look like this (+ or - 5 min depending on foul trouble, matchups, who's hot, etc):

1 - Davis 20, Cadeau 20

2 - Trimble 15, Jackson 20, Davis 5

3 - Powell 25, Trimble 15

4 - Withers 30, Powell 5, Tyson 5

5 - Lubin 25, Washington 15

I don’t think that using individual +/- data to build lineups and rotations would make much sense.

Adrian has +/- data for lineups. That might be more interesting but you’d still need to microanalysis how those numbers came to be and even then it may not mean very much.

 

[BillOfRights]

I don’t think that using individual +/- data to build lineups and rotations would make much sense.

Adrian has +/- data for lineups. That might be more interesting but you’d still need to microanalysis how those numbers came to be and even then it may not mean very much.

I'm not using +/- to build lineups. It's a data point. The chart I posted has a lot more than +/-. Adrian Atkinson does really good analysis with lineups, and I'm sure there's even more data available with certain tools, but I don't have access to that stuff.

What would your lineups look like, and what would you use to help inform that?

ETA: Did I read somewhere that Tanner is looking to expand Carolina's analytics staff? That is great news!!!

 

[Heelsandeers]

What would be better data to help us understand the players' defensive contributions and their overall contributions to the team?

I'm not of aware of any publicly available metric that is useful when it comes to evaluating individual defense at the college level

It has to be adjusted. Adjusted, it's not bad. Raw, it's stupid.

Even adjusted, for a single, noisy college season? I'm not sure it tells you much. Better than raw +/- still, sure

 

[BillOfRights]

I'm not of aware of any publicly available metric that is useful when it comes to evaluating individual defense at the college level



Even adjusted, for a single, noisy college season? I'm not sure it tells you much. Better than raw +/- still, sure

2024-25 UNC Tar Heels Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2024-25 UNC Tar Heels Roster and Stats for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

provides defensive win shares, defensive box +/-, and a defensive rating in addition to standard and advanced metrics. Other than that, can people just sit on their couch and watch games on tv and differentiate great/good/average/bad/poor defense for every player? How much game video would we need to watch isolating on each player to have a good understanding of each player's defensive abilities?

 

[donbosco]

2024-25 UNC Tar Heels Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2024-25 UNC Tar Heels Roster and Stats for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

provides defensive win shares, defensive box +/-, and a defensive rating in addition to standard and advanced metrics. Other than that, can people just sit on their couch and watch games on tv and differentiate great/good/average/bad/poor defense for every player? How much game video would we need to watch isolating on each player to have a good understanding of each player's defensive abilities?

J/K

 

[superrific]

I'm not of aware of any publicly available metric that is useful when it comes to evaluating individual defense at the college level



Even adjusted, for a single, noisy college season? I'm not sure it tells you much. Better than raw +/- still, sure

I don't know about that. Mine was a general comment about +/-. Obviously if the Thunder have a player who pretty much only sees the floor when SGA is playing, then that guy's +/- will probably be really good regardless of his ability, since he's always playing with an MVP on his team. That's one type of adjustment. You'd also want to do it the other way too. If the team's defensive stopper is on the court to guard Lebron or Durant, and sits when they sit, that will make his +/- numbers look worse.

I have no idea whether those adjustments are really feasible in the college game. It would be harder than the NBA for a number of reasons.

 

[BillOfRights]

J/K

You win the day!

 

[Bigs23]

I'm not using +/- to build lineups. It's a data point. The chart I posted has a lot more than +/-. Adrian Atkinson does really good analysis with lineups, and I'm sure there's even more data available with certain tools, but I don't have access to that stuff.

What would your lineups look like, and what would you use to help inform that?

ETA: Did I read somewhere that Tanner is looking to expand Carolina's analytics staff? That is great news!!!

I’d use practice and game performance to decide along with analytics and the input of my team leaders. In other words, everything.

 

[Heelsandeers]

2024-25 UNC Tar Heels Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the detailed 2024-25 UNC Tar Heels Roster and Stats for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

provides defensive win shares, defensive box +/-, and a defensive rating in addition to standard and advanced metrics.

Don't think there's much to take away from those. Sorting through each the results wildly differ. I'm pretty sure DBPM is just taking BPM - OBPM. No idea what to make of defensive win shares

Defensive rating is heavily influenced by team defensive rating iirc and skews towards bigs who have more defensive stats. Drake rates closer to RJ and EC than he does Withers, Jwash, Lubin

Other than that, can people just sit on their couch and watch games on tv and differentiate great/good/average/bad/poor defense for every player? How much game video would we need to watch isolating on each player to have a good understanding of each player's defensive abilities?

Pretty much. I think anyone who watches a team consistently has a decent idea of who the plus and minus defenders are. Just not much that is quantifiable on a per player basis when it comes to defense