Gavin Newsom addresses the nation

[Centerpiece]

I think Republican governor from the South or Midwest would be the most likely candidate.

So a Taker State Gov gets the nod over JD.
OK. I'm cool with that.
Trump fatigue will be a real doozy and JD can't over come it. Makes sense.

So you're predicting an all South and/or Midwest showdown: A young, white, Christian, straight guy on the Dems ticket vs. a GOP Gov from a taker state. An old, white, "Christian" pedophile.

Knowing the dumbass Amerikkkan electorate, I wouldn't bet against the Pedo

 

[Centerpiece]

I know Fetterman is really hated on this board and rightfully so. He really seems like he would be a hit with Joe and Eileen Bailey - ie a Republican.

But strategically, he would be a reaonable candidate for Democrats. On the downside, he has significant physical and mental health questions and he would not generate any excitement from the base. But Biden 2020 did not generate any excitement from the base and also had health questions. Yet he won fairly comfortably.

At some point this board needs to accept that there is very little overlap with the candidates it likes and the candidates that are electable.

I think we're done here. Fetterman > Newsom. Look out GOP, here come the Dems!

 

[Calheel]

So a Taker State Gov gets the nod over JD.
OK. I'm cool with that.
Trump fatigue will be a real doozy and JD can't over come it. Makes sense.

So you're predicting an all South and/or Midwest showdown: A young, white, Christian, straight guy on the Dems ticket vs. a GOP Gov from a taker state. An old, white, "Christian" pedophile.

That describes an awful lot of elections in our history.

 

[Calheel]

I think we're done here. Fetterman > Newsom. Look out GOP, here come the Dems!

Fetterman is a 10x better candidate than Newsom.

If Newsom runs, they will pound that he is anti-religious and cite his restrictions on churches during Covid. There is just so much negative material out there on Newsom. Republicans would vastly prefer to run against Newsom than Fetterman.

 

[mpaer]

Fetterman is a 10x better candidate than Newsom.

If Newsom runs, they will pound that he is anti-religious and cite his restrictions on churches during Covid. There is just so much negative material out there on Newsom. Republicans would vastly prefer to run against Newsom than Fetterman.

Fetterman is brain damaged basically That is mean crap to say-but it's real

 

[Calheel]

Fetterman is brain damaged basically That is mean crap to say-but it's real

Trump is brain damaged and was elected twice. Brain damage is not that big of a deal in today’s political environment. Closing churches during Covid is a much bigger issue.

 

[dukeman92]

At some point this board needs to accept that there is very little overlap with the candidates it likes and the candidates that are electable.

At some point, you’re going to have to take your own advice. Public perception of Newsom is changing. If he continues this media bombardment for three years, he’s going to gain a lot of support.

 

[mpaer]

Trump is brain damaged and was elected twice. Brain damage is not that big of a deal in today’s political environment.

Well there is that for sure

 

[wmheel1287]

Fetterman is a 10x better candidate than Newsom.

If Newsom runs, they will pound that he is anti-religious and cite his restrictions on churches during Covid. There is just so much negative material out there on Newsom. Republicans would vastly prefer to run against Newsom than Fetterman.

Dude....Fetterman isn't a better candidate than anyone. Literally anyone. Tulsi Gabbard as the democratic candidate would be better than Fetterman. Yeah, Trump is batshit crazy but winning the Republican base is very different from winning the Democratic base. Fetterman doesn't appeal to anyone. He's not pragmatic. He's not liberal. He's not conservative. He's just loony and he lacks any charisma. What exactly would be his appeal? That he dresses like Joe Rogan?

 

[Zoo_View]

Dem Nominee just has to be able to beat Vance, correct?
Unless Pubs successfully get a Trump on the ballot, JD is the opponent, no? (Perhaps, perhaps not. Who was Dan Quayle anyway?)

Somebody mentioned Clinton “fatigue”… and Bush 2 had such a horrible tenure that even a complete unknown black guy with a Muslim name won easily. Bush “fatigue”.

Think about that. Aside from the keynote speech at a convention, a one term Senator, a complete unknown black guy with “Hussein” as a middle name won the Presidency. Wow! Bush 2 had shit the bed that badly. Granted Obama was a great orator which gave him the “it” factor mentioned.

I think Trump 2.0 could possibly leave the country in as bad of shape as W had it in 2008. I think the country will suffer from Trump fatigue, leaving JD with an uphill climb. Recall W’s VP wasn’t the Pub nominee in 2008 (What was his name?).

It’s possible a complete unknown can make it happen for the Dems. But it’s probably got to be somebody that comes close to fitting Calheel’s description. That said, I think the nominee can be in his 60’s (not just 40’s/50s) and can be from a State outside of the South or midWest.

I’m ok with most all the names bandied about thus far - except Fetterman

Vance isn’t the GOP heir apparent.

He’ll have to win the nomination. He’ll face lots of challengers.

George Herbert Walker Bush faced significant challengers in 1988 (Bob Dole, Jack Kemp, Pat Robertson, Paul Laxalt, Alexander Haig, Pierre DuPont). Bush had been a loyal two-term VP to Ronald Reagan, a shitty President that most Republicans revered and thought was Saint Ronald and the greatest president ever.

The GOP wasn’t enamored with GHW Bush.

The GOP won’t be enamored with Vance.

 

[Zoo_View]

I have to admit that I'm sorta impressed that all of them can get through that segment without succumbing to terminal embarrassment.

Being paid $100 of thousand each year helps.

 

[Zoo_View]

I know Fetterman is really hated on this board and rightfully so. He really seems like he would be a hit with Joe and Eileen Bailey - ie a Republican.

But strategically, he would be a reaonable candidate for Democrats. On the downside, he has significant physical and mental health questions and he would not generate any excitement from the base. But Biden 2020 did not generate any excitement from the base and also had health questions. Yet he won fairly comfortably.

At some point this board needs to accept that there is very little overlap with the candidates it likes and the candidates that are electable.

My preference is to a candidate who can win in November 2028. Period.

I’m mocking you because you said the winning candidate had to be a hetero white Christian male from the South or Midwest who is 40-59 years-old.

You compiled a list of 10 names that included several Jews, almost no Southerners or Midwesterners (maybe one, total), and at least one guy 60-plus.

Trump is brain damaged and was elected twice. Brain damage is not that big of a deal in today’s political environment. Closing churches during Covid is a much bigger issue.

Brain-damaged is a huge issue for any Democratic candidate. Ditto on adultery or sexual assault.

Those things matter not for a GOP candidate.

 

[akillesheel]

Fetterman is a 10x better candidate than Newsom.

If Newsom runs, they will pound that he is anti-religious and cite his restrictions on churches during Covid. There is just so much negative material out there on Newsom. Republicans would vastly prefer to run against Newsom than Fetterman.

i'm not really a fan of newsom as a candidate, but i think a pretty good rule of thumb these days is that dems should in fact run whomever republicans claim they would "prefer to run against."

 

[Healing]

Fetterman is a 10x better candidate than Newsom.

If Newsom runs, they will pound that he is anti-religious and cite his restrictions on churches during Covid. There is just so much negative material out there on Newsom. Republicans would vastly prefer to run against Newsom than Fetterman.

What has happened to you?

 

[Calheel]

Dude....Fetterman isn't a better candidate than anyone. Literally anyone. Tulsi Gabbard as the democratic candidate would be better than Fetterman. Yeah, Trump is batshit crazy but winning the Republican base is very different from winning the Democratic base. Fetterman doesn't appeal to anyone. He's not pragmatic. He's not liberal. He's not conservative. He's just loony and he lacks any charisma. What exactly would be his appeal? That he dresses like Joe Rogan?

Have you noticed that "generic" democrat always does better in polling than any named democrat? That is because generic has no negatives -- none.

I want a 2028 candidate that is as close to generic democrat as possible. I don't need charisma. I don't need appeal. I want an absence of problems.

Newsom has a boatload of problems. He is basically the worst possible candidate we could nominate. The people that like him on this board aren't thinking about his negatives. They are focusing on his positives. That is the absolute worst way to pick a candidate.

 

[dukeman92]

Have you noticed that "generic" democrat always does better in polling than any named democrat? That is because generic has no negatives -- none.

I want a 2028 candidate that is as close to generic democrat as possible. I don't need charisma. I don't need appeal. I want an absence of problems.

Newsom has a boatload of problems. He is basically the worst possible candidate we could nominate. The people that like him on this board aren't thinking about his negatives. They are focusing on his positives. That is the absolute worst way to pick a candidate.

Trump.

 

[Healing]

Fetterman is about as far from generic as a current pol gets. He’s literally brain damaged. His wife is scared of him. His behavior is reportedly dangerous, impulsive, and erratic. He has a history of near fatal health episodes. He dresses like he’s late for first period.

That had to be a jesting throw-in. Yeah?

 

[Calheel]

Fetterman is about as far from generic as a current pol gets. He’s literally brain damaged. His wife is scared of him. His behavior is reportedly dangerous, impulsive, and erratic. He has a history of near fatal health episodes. He dresses like he’s late for first period.

That had to be a jesting throw-in. Yeah?

I mentioned he was the worst on my list. But I’d still pick him over Newsom. Fetterman’s negatives could be managed with a good campaign. Newsom’s are baked in and would be deadly in the swing states.

Of course, Fetterman is never going to run and would never win the nomination so it is a moot point. But yeah, give me Fetterman all day over Newsom.

 

[Zoo_View]

Have you noticed that "generic" democrat always does better in polling than any named democrat? That is because generic has no negatives -- none.

I want a 2028 candidate that is as close to generic democrat as possible. I don't need charisma. I don't need appeal. I want an absence of problems.

Newsom has a boatload of problems. He is basically the worst possible candidate we could nominate. The people that like him on this board aren't thinking about his negatives. They are focusing on his positives. That is the absolute worst way to pick a candidate.

“I don’t need charisma.”

Since Watergate, two Democrats lacking charisma have won the White House - Jimmy Carter in 1976; he won against boring ass Gerald Ford who had pardoned Nixon; the 1976 election was a referendum on Nixon; Carter won. Then we have Biden in 2020; that election was a referendum on Trump’s botched response to Covid; Biden won.

• 1980 - Carter was losing. Period. Iranian hostage crisis. Inflation. High interest rates.
• 1984 - Morning in America. Even a charismatic Fritz Mondale loses in a landslide to Reagan in ‘84. Maybe a guy with charisma wins Massachusetts and keeps North Carolina close enough to defeat Jesse Helms.
• 1988 - the Democrats nominate someone in Mike Dukakis who managed to make GHW Bush appear likable, charismatic, and erudite. Bush was winning regardless. Eight years of supposed “peace and prosperity.”
• 1992 - Democrats finally nominate a charismatic candidate. Holy shit. He wins!
• 1996 - economy holds. Same Democrat wins. Turns out the American people like him. First Democrat in years to pass the “beer test” - who would I like to have a beer with?
• 2000 - we nominate Al Gore. High on the “people I don’t want to have a beer with” list. Anti-charismatic.
• 2004 - We nominate someone less charismatic than Al Gore.
• 2008 and 2012. It’s Barack! Enough said. Coolest mofo to be POTUS or a POTUS nominee maybe ever. Oozes charisma.
• 2016 - Hillary. More anti-charisma than Gore and Kerry combined.
• 2024 - Kamala. Biden (and/or his staff put the Democrats in a huge hole). Still, Kamala does not come close to having “it.”

I want a POTUS candidate with “it.”

 

[Calheel]

“I don’t need charisma.”

Since Watergate, two Democrats lacking charisma have won the White House - Jimmy Carter in 1976; he won against boring ass Gerald Ford who had pardoned Nixon; the 1976 election was a referendum on Nixon; Carter won. Then we have Biden in 2020; that election was a referendum on Trump’s botched response to Covid; Biden won.

• 1980 - Carter was losing. Period. Iranian hostage crisis. Inflation. High interest rates.
• 1984 - Morning in America. Even a charismatic Fritz Mondale loses in a landslide to Reagan in ‘84. Maybe a guy with charisma wins Massachusetts and keeps North Carolina close enough to defeat Jesse Helms.
• 1988 - the Democrats nominate someone in Mike Dukakis who managed to make GHW Bush appear likable, charismatic, and erudite. Bush was winning regardless. Eight years of supposed “peace and prosperity.”
• 1992 - Democrats finally nominate a charismatic candidate. Holy shit. He wins!
• 1996 - economy holds. Same Democrat wins. Turns out the American people like him. First Democrat in years to pass the “beer test” - who would I like to have a beer with?
• 2000 - we nominate Al Gore. High on the “people I don’t want to have a beer with” list. Anti-charismatic.
• 2004 - We nominate someone less charismatic than Al Gore.
• 2008 and 2012. It’s Barack! Enough said. Coolest mofo to be POTUS or a POTUS nominee maybe ever. Oozes charisma.
• 2016 - Hillary. More anti-charisma than Gore and Kerry combined.
• 2024 - Kamala. Biden (and/or his staff put the Democrats in a huge hole). Still, Kamala does not come close to having “it.”

I want a POTUS candidate with “it.”

So 4 democrats have won: Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden. Only 50% of the winners had "it" per your analysis.

The "it" isn't why any of those candidates won. Each case involved voting against the other party. One thing Carter, Clinton and Obama shared was youth and few negatives due to a meteoric rise. Same with JFK.

Nominating a candidate based on perceived "itness" is a path to political ruin.