aGDevil2k
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OK gotta clear up a major fallacy in your post (the rest, 100% agree!!!)Unless you live in a floodplain or a steep, narrow valley or on a barrier island, or next to a sound, you’re good.
This can easily happen at 2,000 feet. This will likely happen with greater frequency as the climate warms and there is more and more moisture in the atmosphere. Hurricanes and tropical storms and just normal storm fronts are bringing more-and-more rain.
Jeff Jackson, in his e-mail, referred to this as a 500-year flood. He’s likely wrong. It’s likely a 10-50 year flood.
Once recovery is successful, and rebuilding is starting, we have to ask, “Should we allow rebuilding in that spot?”
Biltmore Village? I’d argue it’s in a floodplain. No rebuilding there.
A house in a holler just above a creek? No rebuilding there.
Lake Lure Dam? Tear it down.
That was indeed a 500-year storm by definition. You are trying to say those will happen more frequently, but 500-year means 0.02% historically of occuring in any one year. That number will not move quickly. A 10 year and 50 year storm is much less water volume, and those are definitely happening more and more and we are seeing those numbers increase (the numbers which equate to a 10 year event)...and those are moving faster by statistical nature compared to a 500 year storm.
I actually think they will determine this was more of a 0.01% storm event in areas. It literally set the all time state record for event rainfall in any location. So we shouldn't exaggerate and say this was a 10-50 year storm. The Swannanoa floods easily, yes. But it hits like 12 feet, not 27! There is such a massive difference in 10" of rain in a storm (I would guess that's about a 25 year event there, without looking up anything) and 36"
So your point in that climate change is increasing the frequency which will change the numbers is fair. But it's not fair to say this was a 10-2% chance storm.
Absolutely agree that some places need to turn into parks after this. Biltmore Village, I am looking at you. Construction in 100-year floodplains (verifiable Zone AE) should be abandoned once a place is condemned. Compensate an owner for the value and ban building unless on stilts.