Helene Recovery & Info

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Unless you live in a floodplain or a steep, narrow valley or on a barrier island, or next to a sound, you’re good.

This can easily happen at 2,000 feet. This will likely happen with greater frequency as the climate warms and there is more and more moisture in the atmosphere. Hurricanes and tropical storms and just normal storm fronts are bringing more-and-more rain.

Jeff Jackson, in his e-mail, referred to this as a 500-year flood. He’s likely wrong. It’s likely a 10-50 year flood.

Once recovery is successful, and rebuilding is starting, we have to ask, “Should we allow rebuilding in that spot?”

Biltmore Village? I’d argue it’s in a floodplain. No rebuilding there.

A house in a holler just above a creek? No rebuilding there.

Lake Lure Dam? Tear it down.
OK gotta clear up a major fallacy in your post (the rest, 100% agree!!!)

That was indeed a 500-year storm by definition. You are trying to say those will happen more frequently, but 500-year means 0.02% historically of occuring in any one year. That number will not move quickly. A 10 year and 50 year storm is much less water volume, and those are definitely happening more and more and we are seeing those numbers increase (the numbers which equate to a 10 year event)...and those are moving faster by statistical nature compared to a 500 year storm.

I actually think they will determine this was more of a 0.01% storm event in areas. It literally set the all time state record for event rainfall in any location. So we shouldn't exaggerate and say this was a 10-50 year storm. The Swannanoa floods easily, yes. But it hits like 12 feet, not 27! There is such a massive difference in 10" of rain in a storm (I would guess that's about a 25 year event there, without looking up anything) and 36"

So your point in that climate change is increasing the frequency which will change the numbers is fair. But it's not fair to say this was a 10-2% chance storm.

Absolutely agree that some places need to turn into parks after this. Biltmore Village, I am looking at you. Construction in 100-year floodplains (verifiable Zone AE) should be abandoned once a place is condemned. Compensate an owner for the value and ban building unless on stilts.
 
I’m amazed to report that power is back on at our cabin in Seven Devils.
In a lot of areas, they are getting power back way faster than I imagined. It's more impressive given the amount of roads that are absolutely GONE.




Well that's a new way to raft the New
 
OK gotta clear up a major fallacy in your post (the rest, 100% agree!!!)

That was indeed a 500-year storm by definition. You are trying to say those will happen more frequently, but 500-year means 0.02% historically of occuring in any one year. That number will not move quickly. A 10 year and 50 year storm is much less water volume, and those are definitely happening more and more and we are seeing those numbers increase (the numbers which equate to a 10 year event)...and those are moving faster by statistical nature compared to a 500 year storm.

I actually think they will determine this was more of a 0.01% storm event in areas. It literally set the all time state record for event rainfall in any location. So we shouldn't exaggerate and say this was a 10-50 year storm. The Swannanoa floods easily, yes. But it hits like 12 feet, not 27! There is such a massive difference in 10" of rain in a storm (I would guess that's about a 25 year event there, without looking up anything) and 36"

So your point in that climate change is increasing the frequency which will change the numbers is fair. But it's not fair to say this was a 10-2% chance storm.

Absolutely agree that some places need to turn into parks after this. Biltmore Village, I am looking at you. Construction in 100-year floodplains (verifiable Zone AE) should be abandoned once a place is condemned. Compensate an owner for the value and ban building unless on stilts.
I agree with your post and you likely (hugely likely) know a ton more about this than I do.

It’s completely hypothetical on my part; but, I expect we’ll be seeing 100-year, 500-year, thousand-year storms with much greater frequency……every 10-20 years……..now the storm might track 25-50 miles west or east of Helene’s track……some might say that changes that storm’s category……the reality is we’ve built in places we shouldn’t build. We won’t change from doing that.

The developers and landowners in WNC will insist on rebuilding where they were…….and before 2050, we’ll see a comparable storm hit WNC…….Trumplicans will say, “Who could have foreseen this?”

And, we’ll again rebuild where we shouldn’t build.
 
. . .. Lake Lure Dam? Tear it down.
There are some vacation home owners on Lake Lure who would disagree. The dam is owned by the town of Lake Lure and already had funding lined up to replace it before this weather event happened. I agree that some reflection needs to occur. And I agree that if the dam is to be rebuilt, then Lake Lure should be drained until the rebuild is finished. But a 100 year old, high risk dam that had funding lined up for its replacement did survive a 500 year flood event.
 
In a lot of areas, they are getting power back way faster than I imagined. It's more impressive given the amount of roads that are absolutely GONE.




Well that's a new way to raft the New
My paternal grandparents lived in West Jefferson. I spent a lot of time there as a kid and teen and my family frequently rafted the New River (and then would crash my grandma’s house, ravenous — my dad was her Rosie the Riveter baby (just the two of them together from 1942-1945 wild my grandfather was at war, and she delighted in spoiling him, but don’t think she was so keen about all five of us showing up out of the blue wanting fed. LOL)).
 
I agree with your post and you likely (hugely likely) know a ton more about this than I do.

It’s completely hypothetical on my part; but, I expect we’ll be seeing 100-year, 500-year, thousand-year storms with much greater frequency……every 10-20 years……..now the storm might track 25-50 miles west or east of Helene’s track……some might say that changes that storm’s category……the reality is we’ve built in places we shouldn’t build. We won’t change from doing that.

The developers and landowners in WNC will insist on rebuilding where they were…….and before 2050, we’ll see a comparable storm hit WNC…….Trumplicans will say, “Who could have foreseen this?”

And, we’ll again rebuild where we shouldn’t build.
On the other hand, civilizations rebuilding where they shouldn’t rebuild has been a thing for millennia. Granted, up until relatively recently, a big part of that is because people had to build near a water source, but even today, the vast majority of the human population lives either in, or near, a floodplain, or an area that has the potential to be devastated by earthquakes, forest fires, or tornadoes. We can certainly do a great deal to mitigate that loss, but I don’t see that changing, as the world’s population continues to grow.
 
Here's a question:

How the hell do you clean Lake Lure? Does anyone have a feasible engineering solution to do that? You cant get a barge in that lake. How do you get all of that stuff out???
 
OK gotta clear up a major fallacy in your post (the rest, 100% agree!!!)

That was indeed a 500-year storm by definition. You are trying to say those will happen more frequently, but 500-year means 0.02% historically of occuring in any one year. That number will not move quickly. A 10 year and 50 year storm is much less water volume, and those are definitely happening more and more and we are seeing those numbers increase (the numbers which equate to a 10 year event)...and those are moving faster by statistical nature compared to a 500 year storm.

I actually think they will determine this was more of a 0.01% storm event in areas. It literally set the all time state record for event rainfall in any location. So we shouldn't exaggerate and say this was a 10-50 year storm. The Swannanoa floods easily, yes. But it hits like 12 feet, not 27! There is such a massive difference in 10" of rain in a storm (I would guess that's about a 25 year event there, without looking up anything) and 36"

So your point in that climate change is increasing the frequency which will change the numbers is fair. But it's not fair to say this was a 10-2% chance storm.

Absolutely agree that some places need to turn into parks after this. Biltmore Village, I am looking at you. Construction in 100-year floodplains (verifiable Zone AE) should be abandoned once a place is condemned. Compensate an owner for the value and ban building unless on stilts.
There is actually a retail and office building in Biltmore Village that is elevated with parking underneath to allow for flooding. There is a Chico’s and Talbots and Williams Sonoma, etc along with some office space. I’ll be curious to see how that fared and if it was elevated enough.
 
Here's a question:

How the hell do you clean Lake Lure? Does anyone have a feasible engineering solution to do that? You cant get a barge in that lake. How do you get all of that stuff out???
Shore-mounted dredge of some kind? (No idea if feasible, just spitballing.)
 
Here's a question:

How the hell do you clean Lake Lure? Does anyone have a feasible engineering solution to do that? You cant get a barge in that lake. How do you get all of that stuff out???
Drain the lake. Let it dry until you can get heavy equipment in?
 
There is actually a retail and office building in Biltmore Village that is elevated with parking underneath to allow for flooding. There is a Chico’s and Talbots and Williams Sonoma, etc along with some office space. I’ll be curious to see how that fared and if it was elevated enough.
Yep! And that's going to be the only way to rebuild in that area for sure
 
Here's a question:

How the hell do you clean Lake Lure? Does anyone have a feasible engineering solution to do that? You cant get a barge in that lake. How do you get all of that stuff out???
Short answer: I don't know.
Long answer: Proceed with the previous planned and funded dam replacement. But alter the plans to completely drain Lake Lure during the rebuild. When the lake is drained, go in with front end loaders and scoop-up all the debris that was floating on the lake before it was drained.

ETA: Sorry, didn't see Grimes70's response until after I posted. I really need to read to end before posting my half-ass ideas.
 
Some longtime Rollins Road residents who initially dismissed the warnings to leave the area last week ended up fleeing as the storm approached. But Mr. Tipton, whose trailer house had weathered previous storms, apparently did not change his mind. On Friday, the river continued its advance, making an island of his low-lying plot of land.

Jason Blankenship said that when firefighters came through the neighborhood that morning, he urged them to help evacuate Mr. Tipton, who was standing in his doorway. He said a firefighter told him that Mr. Tipton had already refused their aid on Thursday night.

As the water continued to swirl Friday afternoon, Mr. Tipton remained in his doorway, waving to his family up on the railroad tracks. Then, all of a sudden, his doorway — and the rest of his home — disappeared into the water, leaving behind only a few pieces of foundation.

“One minute he’s standing in the front door, and the next minute, the trailer’s gone,” said one of his nieces, Annie Meadows, who watched the horror unfold. “It kind of exploded.”

Watching from the tracks, his family all feared for nearly an hour that he was lost. Then came a shout from behind a tree in the water: “Help!”

It felt like a miracle at first, Ms. Meadows said, but it was soon apparent how bleak the situation was.


The houses on the riverbank were flooding, and there seemed to be no way to get to Mr. Tipton. Though Ms. Meadows’s fiancé, Cody Rice, cannot swim, he tied a cable around his waist and got up on the roof of a nearby house to see if he could reach Mr. Tipton. The cable was too short.

From the tree, Mr. Tipton continued for hours to plead for help. Trying to encourage him to keep going, relatives called out that they had rescued his dog and asked him if he could see them. He said he could.

As dusk neared, a group of firefighters arrived, including the county’s only river rescue team. But they said that the water was too dangerous to enter, and that they would return at daybreak. Family members expressed shock.

“When they told me they wouldn’t put boats in the water, I lost it,” Ms. Meadows said.

Mitch Hampton, an assistant chief of the Walnut Volunteer Fire Department and the leader of its river rescue team, said that the water was too turbulent for his squad, which does not have the powerful equipment that teams in larger regions do. All of the team’s rescue boats are inflatable, and none has a motor.

“The resources we have are for normal conditions,” Mr. Hampton said. “This is nothing that any of us have ever seen before.”

At that point, all Mr. Tipton’s family could do was watch and yell as his cries for help grew intermittent.

At 10:51 p.m. — the time is seared into the minds of the people who watched it happen — Mr. Tipton’s body went limp and he fell headfirst into the water, which carried him out of sight.

Mr. Hampton, a Coast Guard veteran, said that if he and the other rescuers had perished while attempting to save Mr. Tipton, the entire county would have been without a river rescue team. The team carried out several dramatic rescues in other places during the storm, he said, including pulling five people from a hotel and saving two older residents from their home in Marshall as a rush of large debris flew down Main Street.

But the situation with Mr. Tipton was heartbreaking, he said.

“That was the worst one,” he said. “Because the family’s there, because you can’t do anything. We couldn’t get to him.”

On Sunday, a group of volunteers walked through the wasteland that Main Street in Marshall had become, searching through buildings with shovels for bodies. All they found to rescue were some American flags from a government building.

Mr. Tipton is survived by a daughter, his nieces and nephews, and a sister, Betty Pressley, 84, who lived across the road from him and left before the water rolled in.
 
On the other hand, civilizations rebuilding where they shouldn’t rebuild has been a thing for millennia. Granted, up until relatively recently, a big part of that is because people had to build near a water source, but even today, the vast majority of the human population lives either in, or near, a floodplain, or an area that has the potential to be devastated by earthquakes, forest fires, or tornadoes. We can certainly do a great deal to mitigate that loss, but I don’t see that changing, as the world’s population continues to grow.
As the world’s population grows, we damn well better stop building in floodplains, narrow mountain valleys, on barrier islands, and near sounds.

Or, we should constantly be prepared for natural disasters.
 
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