Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

Zoo_View said:
You stay in college for the money because you’re certain you WON’T make big NBA money…..you realize you’re an NBA journeyman at best.
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Right, but that doesn’t apply to Ian and Drake. You don’t stay in college if you’re a first rounder, those are guaranteed multiyear deals and your clock starts before you’re 20.
 
I’d like to see Powell, Lubin, and Trimble back. I’m fine with the rest of them going. I’d really prefer Cadeau is gone.

I don’t care what it does to the record. This program is desperately in need of a culture rebuild, if it takes a couple years even… and those other guys, especially Cadeau, don’t have the constitution I’d like to see as part of that rebuild. Charmin soft, don’t want it don’t need it.
 
farce© said:
Right, but that doesn’t apply to Ian and Drake. You don’t stay in college if you’re a first rounder, those are guaranteed multiyear deals and your clock starts before you’re 20.
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Ian and Drake GO. Especially Drake. Drake is a long, athletic freak who WANTS to play defense and can cover multiple positions. He has a shooting touch. His worst case scenario is Danny Green if he works hard.

Ian? He should go. His career is more uncertain than Drake’s. More upside, maybe. Lower floor.
 
BlueSteel said:
Why the hell would Washington transfer? To be second string C on another bubble team? UNC is the best thing that has or ever will happen to JWash. He should be kissing Hubert Davis’ feet for this ongoing opportunity.
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If Washington transfers, he's a pretty obvious candidate to go down a level to find a place he can consistently (hopefully?) start and get 20+ minutes a game of playing time.
 
farce© said:
But you are delaying the big money which comes in year 4, then delaying the really big money that comes with a third contract. You might make more in college for a year or two while costing yourself millions on the back end by not getting the clock started on that first NBA contract.
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Most guys aren’t going to be making the big money in year 4.
 
farce© said:
Right, but that doesn’t apply to Ian and Drake. You don’t stay in college if you’re a first rounder, those are guaranteed multiyear deals and your clock starts before you’re 20.
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Neither is guaranteed big money in year 4.
 
Bigs23 said:
Neither is guaranteed big money in year 4.
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Of course not, but both are good candidates for a second contract. This why they have agents, to help them work through the various scenarios and make the most informed decision.

I don’t know where they might be predicted to be drafted, and I’m not at all sure their draft prospects were enhanced by this year at UNC. I’m just taking issue with the notion that a potential first rounder should stay in school based on NIL money vs the potential for hundreds of millions in NBA money. That just strikes me as very short term thinking.
 
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Bigs23 said:
Teams do it.
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Competitive maybe but they aren’t Carolina level.

My heart hurt a bit listening to George Lynch on Theo’s podcast when he said he looked at the results now and was stunned. He said UNC lose 7 games? He said 7 games? Yet Carolina seems fine with losing a lot more than 7 now. He couldn’t believe it and neither can I.
 
I think Cadeau's fate is very wrapped up in how his parents feel about Carolina in some very broad considerations that include actual education, politics, social life, and of course, his basketball future. The nature of his portal opportunities in those same categories will likely play a big role in decision-making as well.

Trimble sure does seem dedicated to UNC.

Lubin must be fully aware that we'll seek out a 7-footer (or two) -- I wonder what his thinking is on playing a position other than pivot. If he has a future in the game it isn't at center.

Caleb Wilson's build is similar to Withers. He doesn't strike me as a power inside guy. Where will he play?

That brings it to Powell...he's a Legacy Player and grew up 17 miles away. I think he comes back. But if he does...and Cadeau and Trimble do as well do we start a line-up with Powell on the other wing, Wilson and a BIG to be named? Would Lubin then see his best move as heading into the portal?

And then there is Ian Jackson. I've seen talk of bad body language on the bench from him. He's not been playing well so I'd find that difficult to read. Still, I'd imagine that he's gone.

JWash goes to a mid-major I think. He'd be a good addition to a team in the Big South for example.

I imagine it is pretty tempting for Tyson to head back down to a mid-major as well but there is no money there and he's had a taste of the bucks...AND probably thinks he can play at the Carolina level. I'm not convinced that he can't contribute myself. I think he's a good bet to stay.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Competitive maybe but they aren’t Carolina level.

My heart hurt a bit listening to George Lynch on Theo’s podcast when he said he looked at the results now and was stunned. He said UNC lose 7 games? He said 7 games? Yet Carolina seems fine with losing a lot more than 7 now. He couldn’t believe it and neither can I.
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Many on here would suggest Lynch go follow another team for being less-than-thrilled about this mediocrity.
 
The problem with VAL is you can't play him at the 4 and at 5 he offers no rim protection. I like him in a 15 min role but he can definitely get more than that elsewhere
 
SnoopRob said:
If Washington transfers, he's a pretty obvious candidate to go down a level to find a place he can consistently (hopefully?) start and get 20+ minutes a game of playing time.
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For players/students who started with a school and stayed, I wonder how much loyalty, love of the school, and getting a degree plays a part in the decision. Is it all about the money and PT? I can only imagine how disruptive it would be to one's social life and studies to transfer, but maybe that's just me.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
For players/students who started with a school and stayed, I wonder how much loyalty, love of the school, and getting a degree plays a part in the decision. Is it all about the money and PT? I can only imagine how disruptive it would be to one's social life and studies to transfer, but maybe that's just me.
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I actually think this sort of consideration ought to be factored in more often. We know from hints we've been given over the years that Washington is a good student. His major is exercise and sport administration -- pretty much the pat concentration for players -- but what if that is something that he has a passion for and he wants to continue with that program and with his mentors at UNC? Then he stays or at least finds a comparable department at another school into which to transfer. Those might be tough calls I don't know.
 
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farce© said:
Of course not, but both are good candidates for a second contract. This why they have agents, to help them work through the various scenarios and make the most informed decision.

I don’t know where they might be predicted to be drafted, and I’m not at all sure their draft prospects were enhanced by this year at UNC. I’m just taking issue with the notion that a potential first rounder should stay in school based on NIL money vs the potential for hundreds of millions in NBA money. That just strikes me as very short term thinking.
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NIL money is a factor. In the past many kids who were late first round or border second round didn't have that option. And in some of those cases, the kid would have been better off had they come back, but without the NIL money it was understandable that they left.

For Players now, I guess it is more border second round. As you mentioned, I don't see the NIL money equaling the potential NBA long term money for a guaranteed first round pick.
 
Ramrouser said:
Program needs a total reset after the worst six year period in our basketball history. Only time will tell whether Hubert is a part of this reset.
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What 6-year period was worse: 1999-2004 or 2020-25? I do understand that as of the end of the 99-04 period, we had a great deal of optimism, and the benefit of hindsight allows us to see the subsequent years that were among the best in UNC basketball history, taking the sting off of the 99-04 period. But if you look purely at the results, which was worse?

1999-2004

1999:
24-10
3rd place ACC finish (out of 9 teams)
Final AP ranking: 13th
First round NCAAT exit
0-3 vs. Duke

2000:
22-14
4th place ACC finish (out of 9 teams)
Final AP ranking: Unranked
Final Four appearance (lost in semifinals)
0-2 vs. Duke

2001:
26-7
1st place ACC finish (out of 9 teams)
Final AP ranking: 6th
Second round NCAAT exit
1-2 vs. Duke

2002:
8-20
7th place ACC finish (out of 9 teams)
Final AP ranking: unranked
No NCAAT appearance
0-3 vs. Duke

2003:
19-16
7th place ACC finish (out of 9 teams)
Final AP ranking: Unranked
No NCAAT appearance
1-2 vs. Duke

2004:
19-11
5th place ACC finish (out of 9 teams)
Final AP ranking: 18th
Second round ACCT exit
0-2 vs Duke

Overall:
118-78
3x finishing in bottom half of ACC
3 seasons finishing unranked
6-4 in NCAAT
2x missing NCAAT
1x making it out of first weekend of NCAAT
1 Final Four Appearance
2-14 vs. Duke

2020-2025

2020:
14-19
13th place ACC finish (out of 15 teams; tied with 3 teams for 13th place)
Final AP ranking: unranked
No NCAAT appearance (there was no NCAAT this year due to COVID, but we would not have made it if there were)
0-2 vs. Duke

2021:
18-11
5th place ACC finish (out of 15 teams)
Final AP ranking: unranked
First round NCAAT exit
2-0 vs. Duke

2022:
29-10
2nd place ACC finish (out of 15 teams)
Final AP ranking: unranked
National Championship appearance
2-1 vs. Duke (and those 2 wins were the greatest wins vs. Duke in UNC history

2023:
20-13
7th place ACC finish (out of 15 teams)
Final AP ranking: unranked
No NCAAT appearance
0-2 vs. Duke

2024:
29-8
1st place ACC finish (out of 15 teams)
Final AP ranking: 7th
Sweet 16 exit in NCAAT
2-0 vs. Duke

2025:
23-14
4th place ACC finish (out of 18 teams; tied for 4th place with 3 teams)
Final AP ranking: unranked
First round NCAAT exit (after winning Firsr Four game)
0-3 bs. Duke

Overall:
133-75
1x finishing in bottom half of ACC
5 seasons finishing unranked
7-4 in NCAAT (not including First Four game)
2x missing NCAAT
2x making it out of first weekend of NCAAT
1 National Championship appearance
6-8 vs. Duke

Just looking at the results, I might go with 1999-04 as being slightly worse. 2020-25 has a better overall record, better NCAAT record, only 1 finish in the bottom half of the ACC vs. 3, and a better record vs. Duke. Comparing the worst seasons within each of those stretches, as bad as 2020 was, 2002 was worse. Comparing the seasons with the best NCAAT runs in each of those stretches, 2022 was better than 2000.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
For players/students who started with a school and stayed, I wonder how much loyalty, love of the school, and getting a degree plays a part in the decision. Is it all about the money and PT? I can only imagine how disruptive it would be to one's social life and studies to transfer, but maybe that's just me.
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I believe for 98% of the players it is all about the money.

The average family income in the US is $80K. A good agent, some solid investments, and $500K+ can really set one up for a successful life.

Look at some of the players that didn't make the pros who have used the money from NIL to get a head start on a good life.
 
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