Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

Calheel said:
18-2 Clemson lost to McNeese
18-2 Louisville lost to 25-11/15-5 Creighton

8-10 Arkansas just beat No. 2 seed St John's (18-2 Big East).
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clemson losing to mcneese sucks and is PEAK clemsoning but its a single elimination tournament - stuff happens. st johns was a weak 2.

arkansas looked like trash on and off all year. calipari getting some good matchups and finally getting all of his talent to play together doesn't in any way mean they could've gone 18-2 in the ACC.
 
4thgenheel said:
clemson losing to mcneese sucks and is PEAK clemsoning but its a single elimination tournament - stuff happens. st johns was a weak 2.

arkansas looked like trash on and off all year. calipari getting some good matchups and finally getting all of his talent to play together doesn't in any way mean they could've gone 18-2 in the ACC.
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And 18-2 Louisville losing to 6-12 Oklahoma?

The ACC was historically bad by ACC standards and the SEC was historically good.

Hubert is 2-9 against SEC teams. I think it is highly likely we would have been worse than 6-12 if we played in the SEC this year.
 
Calheel said:
And 18-2 Louisville losing to 6-12 Oklahoma?

The ACC was historically bad by ACC standards and the SEC was historically good.

Hubert is 2-9 against SEC teams. I think it is highly likely we would have been worse than 6-12 if we played in the SEC this year.
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we'll never know. i generally agree with you that the ACC was historically bad / SEC historically good but still think you're being a bit hyperbolic based on a few single elimination tournament results. kenpom has us rated higher than south carolina, texas, vandy, georgia, oklahoma, arkansas and miss st.
 
4thgenheel said:
we'll never know. i generally agree with you that the ACC was historically bad / SEC historically good but still think you're being a bit hyperbolic based on a few single elimination tournament results. kenpom has us rated higher than south carolina, texas, vandy, georgia, oklahoma, arkansas and miss st.
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Considering how we performed at home against Stanford, Ga Tech and Boston College, and that we would also need to play half of those opponents on the road, 6-12 might be generous for us.
 
Back to the OP:

  • Need some dogs again from the portal. Cormac and Ingram types. Also, look where they came from : established D1 programs NDame and Stanford. Finding a Dalton Knecht from a mid-major is catching lightening in a bottle… more often you wind up with a Tyson from a mid-major. Poach fellow D1 teams.
  • Obviously need a true big
  • Need outside makers (not shooters, but makers) Losing RJ and Ian and they’re the only 2 who can shoot the 3 with any consistency.
  • Finally and probably most importantly we need a leader, a vocal leader. Ingram, Cormac and to a certain extent Paxson, all provided some of that last season.
And also, and you can’t get this from the portal really, we need a shake up on the sideline. If Hubert has to stay one more year - and he will - I insist that changes be made in assistants. Keep Lebo and Fredrick. Fire the rest and hire some new coaches…. And they shouldn’t necessarily have to be Carolina people. And it’s in this issue where the GM can come in handy. Hubert does not have to be the one to fire them. Bubba and the GM can take care of that. Hubert can wash his hands of the bloodletting.
 
Centerpiece said:
Back to the OP:

  • Need some dogs again from the portal. Cormac and Ingram types. Also, look where they came from : established D1 programs NDame and Stanford. Finding a Dalton Knecht from a mid-major is catching lightening in a bottle… more often you wind up with a Tyson from a mid-major. Poach fellow D1 teams.
  • Obviously need a true big
  • Need outside makers (not shooters, but makers) Losing RJ and Ian and they’re the only 2 who can shoot the 3 with any consistency.
  • Finally and probably most importantly we need a leader, a vocal leader. Ingram, Cormac and to a certain extent Paxson, all provided some of that last season.
And also, and you can’t get this from the portal really, we need a shake up on the sideline. If Hubert has to stay one more year - and he will - I insist that changes be made in assistants. Keep Lebo and Fredrick. Fire the rest and hire some new coaches…. And they shouldn’t necessarily have to be Carolina people. And it’s in this issue where the GM can come in handy. Hubert does not have to be the one to fire them. Bubba and the GM can take care of that. Hubert can wash his hands of the bloodletting.
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i think you can still look into the big-time mid major guys but focusing on the ones with plus athleticism seems advisable - tyson is not an athlete whereas guys like knecht and sion james can run and jump with anyone.

in short, mid major takes need to be both skilled and really physically robust.
 
farce© said:
I’m just taking issue with the notion that a potential first rounder should stay in school based on NIL money vs the potential for hundreds of millions in NBA money. That just strikes me as very short term thinking.
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It is short term thinking, but if you're guaranteed to make $2-3 million a year (or more) in college, you're basically set for life if you stay in college for 4 years. You roll the dice and enter the draft, you might not get drafted in the first round. Are second round contracts guaranteed? Even if you do get drafted late in the first round, it's far from guaranteed that you're going to be a starter level player.

Now if you're projected in the lottery, that's a no-brainer. Your rookie contract will be more than you can make in college. And let's say you stay in college, get paid $8-10 million, then go to the league and blow up. Who even knows what top level contracts will be in the NBA 10-15 years from now? Guys will probably be getting 4 year contracts for half a billion dollars or more. Anybody that ends up being that kind of player in the NBA is gonna get paid regardless of when they enter the league.

Maybe by staying in college for guaranteed millions means you end up getting paid, say, $400 million instead of $600 million at the end of your career. But if you're that level of player, you've probably doubled (at least) that amount in endorsements. Very, very few players ever reach that level, though, which is why, depending on the circumstances, I don't see taking guaranteed life changing money before you're 22 years old in college as a terrible decision even if you end up having a long and massively profitable NBA career. But especially if you don't, which is the far more statistically likely circumstance...
 
Heelsandeers said:
You said he's not a back to basket player when it's a major strength. Obviously he's not getting used like Armando Bacot but he immediately becomes the best post player on the roster. If VAL/Davidson are on the floor VAL is the 5, simple

UNC has 1 player slotted to play the 4 right now who is a freshman. Bringing in a starting caliber player at that position (who also has positional flexibility) isn't a bad idea if you want to avoid another disappointing year
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He's is more natural on the wing, handling the ball, or backing players down, than he is catching, post-move, on the block. That is the position/style he'll play in the league, if he makes it. So, I doubt he's going to be looking to come in anywhere and play on the block.

If VAL is on the floor, he should not be playing the 4, at all.

Like I said, if you are brining Davidson in, he's going to be expecting to play the 4. Which is why I said that I don't know if HD can sell him on backing up Caleb. (Unless HD doesn't think Caleb will/would start. If so, that's a lot to be paying a backup.)
 
hedge said:
It is short term thinking, but if you're guaranteed to make $2-3 million a year (or more) in college, you're basically set for life if you stay in college for 4 years.
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Not set for life. Not remotely. Maybe if you're 50. At age 22, $5M after taxes is a nice pot of fallback money. It might sustain you if you're willing to live a $100K-per-year lifestyle. That's not what these guys are looking for.
 
Centerpiece said:
Back to the OP:

  • Need some dogs again from the portal. Cormac and Ingram types. Also, look where they came from : established D1 programs NDame and Stanford. Finding a Dalton Knecht from a mid-major is catching lightening in a bottle… more often you wind up with a Tyson from a mid-major. Poach fellow D1 teams.
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I disagree with this. Ingram is going to be the exception; most transfers from P5 schools are going to be more like Lubin or Withers.

If a player is in a P5 program, why would that player transfer here? Outbid the other school? It's always dangerous to outbid an organization for one of its own assets (so to speak, in this case); that organization knows the assets way better than you do, and if it's only willing to pay $X, paying > $X is more often than not a losing bet (all else being equal). And likely the player would be transferring from a poor team, which I'm not sure is a viable strategy because we end up with castoffs from bad teams. Well, not castoffs exactly but you get the point. One reason Louisville was so bad in Withers' last year there was because they were playing Withers 30 mpg.

And if the P5 player is a star, he can just go pro.

I think mid-majors are where the action is. UConn won a title with a starting backcourt of mid-major transfers. A mid-major player isn't as likely to go pro because there could well be skepticism in the NBA of the player's ability to adjust to the league. So a guy like Knecht transfers for a year to show he can do it. Wolf from Yale. These players might be more risky, but I think they have a better chance to be real contributors.
 
Centerpiece said:
Back to the OP:

  • Need some dogs again from the portal. Cormac and Ingram types. Also, look where they came from : established D1 programs NDame and Stanford. Finding a Dalton Knecht from a mid-major is catching lightening in a bottle… more often you wind up with a Tyson from a mid-major. Poach fellow D1 teams.
  • Obviously need a true big
  • Need outside makers (not shooters, but makers) Losing RJ and Ian and they’re the only 2 who can shoot the 3 with any consistency.
  • Finally and probably most importantly we need a leader, a vocal leader. Ingram, Cormac and to a certain extent Paxson, all provided some of that last season.
And also, and you can’t get this from the portal really, we need a shake up on the sideline. If Hubert has to stay one more year - and he will - I insist that changes be made in assistants. Keep Lebo and Fredrick. Fire the rest and hire some new coaches…. And they shouldn’t necessarily have to be Carolina people. And it’s in this issue where the GM can come in handy. Hubert does not have to be the one to fire them. Bubba and the GM can take care of that. Hubert can wash his hands of the bloodletting.
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The vast majority of portal stars come from lower level programs. Grant Nelson, Johni Broome, Mark Sears, etc., etc. Just look at Bartorvik’s transfer rankings for the last few years.

Don’t let UNC’s small sample size confuse you. If we ignore small schools in the portal because of Cade Tyson, we’d making a huge mistake.
 
there are good portal players available all over the place - mid majors and high majors. @superrific malik brown from syracuse to dook and pedulla from VT to ole miss are just a couple recent ones we've faced off the top of my head.

according to IC, we're on mckneely from UVa. i like that. kid defends, competes, decent athleticism, shoots the hell out of the ball. he would make a fine 2 for us next season.
 
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