Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

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Zoo_View said:
Kendall Marshall and Elliott Cadeau weren’t remotely comparable offensively

KM had 9.8 apg vs. 2.8 TO/G. Cadeau had 6.2 apg vs. 3.1 TO/G.

KM shot 46.7% FG, 35.4% 3FG, 52.7% 2FG, 69.6% FT. Cadeau shot 44.5% FG, 33.7% 3FG, 49.2% 2FG, 67% FT.

KM - 8.1 ppg. 33 mpg. Cadeau - 9.4 ppg. 27.8 mpg.

No one played KM to score; but, they couldn’t just lay off him - 35% from “3” is too high AND an unguarded KM would just pick apart a defense.

Teams played off Cadeau.
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KM and EC are much more comparable offensively than you seem to think.

Setting aside assists & turnovers for the moment, KM & EC have very, very similar stats there. If EC shot KM's percentages, in a 37 game season he would have...

...hit 1 more 3 (1 more every 37 games).
...hit 7 more 2s (1 more every 5.3 games).
...hit 3 more FTs (1 more every 12.3 games).

Over the course of the season, that's statistical noise rather than any type of significant difference.

Now, back to assists and turnovers. KM played with an absolutely stacked team that was on the shortest of short lists for NC contention until injuries (including KM) derailed that team...who still made the E8 and played KU pretty well in that game despite starting our 3rd string PG. EC played on a team with very, very little inside presence on a team that, without significant injuries, barely made the NCAA tournament. Given the context of the disparities between the teams they played on and the relative talent each team had, the difference in assists and turnovers becomes very context dependent. KM had a wealth of players to pass to who were bucket-getters and EC had a wealth of players to pass to who tended to either pound the leather off the ball or struggled to put the ball in the basket consistently. Without the benefit of a time machine and/or multiple universes at our disposal, we can never know, but I'd bet that if you put a sophomore year EC on that 2012 team he looks a lot more like 2012 KM and if you put a sophomore year KM on our 2025 team he looks a lot more like 2025 EC in terms of assists and turnovers.

In short, I'd argue that KM and EC are much more comparable than they may appear at first glance, albeit with very different strengths and weaknesses.
 
SnoopRob said:
KM and EC are much more comparable offensively than you seem to think.

Setting aside assists & turnovers for the moment, KM & EC have very, very similar stats there. If EC shot KM's percentages, in a 37 game season he would have...

...hit 1 more 3 (1 more every 37 games).
...hit 7 more 2s (1 more every 5.3 games).
...hit 3 more FTs (1 more every 12.3 games).

Over the course of the season, that's statistical noise rather than any type of significant difference.

Now, back to assists and turnovers. KM played with an absolutely stacked team that was on the shortest of short lists for NC contention until injuries (including KM) derailed that team...who still made the E8 and played KU pretty well in that game despite starting our 3rd string PG. EC played on a team with very, very little inside presence on a team that, without significant injuries, barely made the NCAA tournament. Given the context of the disparities between the teams they played on and the relative talent each team had, the difference in assists and turnovers becomes very context dependent. KM had a wealth of players to pass to who were bucket-getters and EC had a wealth of players to pass to who tended to either pound the leather off the ball or struggled to put the ball in the basket consistently. Without the benefit of a time machine and/or multiple universes at our disposal, we can never know, but I'd bet that if you put a sophomore year EC on that 2012 team he looks a lot more like 2012 KM and and if you put a sophomore year KM on our 2025 team he looks a lot more like 2025 EC in terms of assists and turnovers.

In short, I'd argue that KM and EC are much more comparable than they may appear at first glance, albeit with very different strengths and weaknesses.
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What’s your eye test tell you?
 
Bigs23 said:
What’s your eye test tell you?
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That KM played on a much more talented team that EC.

The entire problem with comparing the two is that the contexts are so drastically different.

EC appears to be a lot more inconsistent than KM, but EC also played on a much worse team and had to carry a bigger load in nearly all ways, whereas KM could largely focus on passing/setting up the offense. EC's team needed him to score much more than KM's team needed him to do so, so EC both attempted more shots and scored more.

I also think that a decent part of EC's problem this year (which was a problem for a number of our players) is that after the first games where we had adversity, he started pressing himself to do more than he was ready to do because he knew the team needed a bit more to get over the top and I think that accounts for some (not all) of the mistakes he made. Conversely, KM entered every game in his Carolina career knowing that if he made solid to good passes, took offensively what the defense gave him, and played good positional defense that he had done his job for the night and his teammates would almost certainly carry them to victory.

On defense, KM was a step slow and could be exploited for his lack of relative athleticism...but the team around him was so talented that it was easier for our interior players to cut off his player to the basket. EC is smaller and foul-prone...but some of that likely comes down to the fact that he couldn't necessarily count on his teammates to pick up his errors.

KM was surely a smoother player than EC, but EC can also do things athletically that KM could only dream about.

The one commonality they have is that both have elite vision and passing abilities. But the major difference is that KM played on a team that could maximize those abilities and EC played on a team where he often saw opportunities that his teammates didn't see and couldn't finish.

Let me be clear, I don't think EC is a better player than KM and I think they are really different players in their style of play, but I think the context of the teams they played on makes a very big difference in how they were able to play the game and in how we perceive them.
 
SnoopRob said:
That KM played on a much more talented team that EC.

The entire problem with comparing the two is that the contexts are so drastically different.

EC appears to be a lot more inconsistent than KM, but EC also played on a much worse team and had to carry a bigger load in nearly all ways, whereas KM could largely focus on passing/setting up the offense. EC's team needed him to score much more than KM's team needed him to do so, so EC both attempted more shots and scored more.

I also think that a decent part of EC's problem this year (which was a problem for a number of our players) is that after the first games where we had adversity, he started pressing himself to do more than he was ready to do because he knew the team needed a bit more to get over the top and I think that accounts for some (not all) of the mistakes he made. Conversely, KM entered every game in his Carolina career knowing that if he made solid to good passes, took offensively what the defense gave him, and played good positional defense that he had done his job for the night and his teammates would almost certainly carry them to victory.

On defense, KM was a step slow and could be exploited for his lack of relative athleticism...but the team around him was so talented that it was easier for our interior players to cut off his player to the basket. EC is smaller and foul-prone...but some of that likely comes down to the fact that he couldn't necessarily count on his teammates to pick up his errors.

KM was surely a smoother player than EC, but EC can also do things athletically that KM could only dream about.

The one commonality they have is that both have elite vision and passing abilities. But the major difference is that KM played on a team that could maximize those abilities and EC played on a team where he often saw opportunities that his teammates didn't see and couldn't finish.

Let me be clear, I don't think EC is a better player than KM and I think they are really different players in their style of play, but I think the context of the teams they played on makes a very big difference in how they were able to play the game and in how we perceive them.
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And KM was throwing to bigs with better hands. Cadeau probably had 20+ TOs on the season that were a direct result of bigs not being able to catch his passes.
 
Bigs23 said:
That’s a weird way to frame it.

He gave both of those guys every opportunity to show what they had. Opportunity is all anyone should ask for.

There’s no “look” here. This is show business not show friends.
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Yeah, it was a weird way of putting it. You said it much better.
 
Calheel said:
And KM was throwing to bigs with better hands. Cadeau probably had 20+ TOs on the season that were a direct result of bigs not being able to catch his passes.
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He still leads the ACC in turnovers even without 20+ passes he should have known JW probably couldn't catch but would look real pretty if he did.
 
Calheel said:
Hence why the TO went on his stat line. But it is worth keeping in mind when comparing EC and KM.
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Fair enough, but he didn't just lead the ACC, he also had the 8th most turnovers in the country. I just think the fact that some players didn't catch some of his passes is pretty much irrelevant as to his complete lack of value for the possession.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Fair enough, but he didn't just lead the ACC, he also had the 8th most turnovers in the country. I just think the fact that some players didn't catch some of his passes is pretty much irrelevant as to his complete lack of value for the possession.
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He was also 8th in the country in assists. So that is kind of a wash. If he had bigs that could catch, he might have had a few more assists and a few less TOs.
 
TarSpiel said:
Coach Davis: "I'm so happy to be coaching at the university I love, where the most important thing to me is the relationships"

The World: "Okay, this seems like a good time to defenestrate "relationships" in college athletics and make it all about $$$$$"
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Extra credit for the word "defenestrate". Bravo, TarSpiel!
Lin Manuel Miranda Love GIF by Tony Awards
 
superrific said:
That's my point. KM was a pass first PG who impacted the game without scoring a lot. Same with EC. Except KM was just better. We keep wanting EC to be KM (or Ed Cota) but he's not. Doesn't have the BB IQ.
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I might have taken what you wrote differently than you wrote it.

It appears you might have been limiting “offensive game” to a narrow spectrum; I look at “offensive game” much more broadly.
 
EC's worst plays came at the worst times. It's hard to see on that stat sheet, but bad shots, fouls, or turnovers seemed to happen for him when we're just getting momentum, or needing a critical stop, etc etc. That's my hindsight sentiment anyway.
 
Did Cadeau say he was open to returning and hadn't met with Coach Davis or Jim Tanner yet? I also read he placed the "do not contact" tag on his portal entry.
 
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