Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

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superrific said:
Here's an analogy to my feelings on the matter.

Sometimes when I get a stomach bug, it creates a sort of weird nausea where I'm not sure whether I'm going to vomit or calm down with Tums, and both options are superior to lying in bed with a pounding stomach. I take the Tums, knowing it might make me immediately puke but that's a feature.

That's how I feel about the upcoming season. I just want clarity on HD's status. Obviously it would be better if we get the good "calm down" option and not the "puke all over everything" one, but either way at least it will be over (for now).
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If you want real clarity on HD's status, then you should hope that he's out of the position after next year.

He's going to need 3 "Carolina-quality" seasons in a row before his seat is actually cool.
 
SnoopRob said:
If you want real clarity on HD's status, then you should hope that he's out of the position after next year.

He's going to need 3 "Carolina-quality" seasons in a row before his seat is actually cool.
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Pretty sure an undefeated season and national championship next year would do the trick.
 
superrific said:
Isn't the opposite true? That a free agency system makes it harder for the traditional programs to dominate, because all that is really needed to compete for recruits is $$? How could any up and coming school have competed in recruiting against the guy who coached MJ, Worthy and Perkins? But if they are allowed to pay, they can level the playing field.
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Both are true, although the advantages to the "upstarts" is overrated in most cases.

If you have a donor or donors who are willing to bankroll your roster via NIL donations of $10-15mil per year, then you are able to jump to the front of the line and play with the big boys immediately. That has seemingly happened in a few cases...BYU, St. John's, and Miami (and maybe another school or 2 that I'm forgetting). But since it's so early in the portal/NIL era, it's hard to tell if any of these programs will actually get the needed NIL for 3+ seasons to make a lasting improvement or if we'll see occasional donor funded jumps that receded after a couple of seasons because donors get exhausted.

But the blue bloods are also the schools who are in the best place to pull in the needed cash to pay for top-line rosters over a significant period of time. Those programs have, on the whole, built programs which create solid revenue (including donor revenue) and are best positioned to still be at the head of CBB in terms of the funds needed for their basketball team. It's telling that which Hubert stating that Carolina Basketball needed more NIL funds to compete, we're still believed to have been in the top 20 teams or so in spending and that his plea now likely has us in the top 10 for the upcoming season. The biggest spenders are largely the teams already at the top of CBB.

Here's a CBS Sports article about the "$10 Million Club" for CBB, for teams expected to spend $10mil on their roster for the upcoming season...

10 teams: Arkansas, BYU, Duke, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, North Carolina, St. John's, Texas Tech

And here's there list of thost expected to be at a minimum of $8mil and could possibly go higher...

14 teams: Auburn, Connecticut, Florida, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Miami, Purdue, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, USC, Villanova, Virginia

Those 24 teams are pretty much a who's who of CBB top contenders with a few upstarts thrown in (sorry I missed you above, Texas Tech, plus Houston, Kansas State, & USC...also, where's Alabama?).

So while there is an opportunity for non-traditional powers to use money to become a real contender very quickly, it's not terribly easy to convince donors to give the needed funds over multiple seasons based solely on hope and the traditional programs have built such donor networks & revenue generation over time, making it far easier for them to get the needed NIL funds to be at the top of the heap.
 
Calheel said:
Pretty sure an undefeated season and national championship next year would do the trick.
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I almost put a disclaimer of "short of a national championship" in there, but decided to leave it out.

But you're entirely correct. If HD can put together an undefeated season capped with a national title, he'd have a seat carved out of an ice block.
 
Peppers49 said:
Yeah, most posters know that I’m not a Hubert fan, but I don’t have a problem specifically with the way he’s approached the portal this off-season.

Losing Cadeau and IJ (and now Powell) is what really hurts. Those guys aren’t perfect players by any means but they have the exact skillsets that the current roster badly needs.
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I just don't see the players they have coming in being any better than those three were at their positions. Wilson and Veesaar appear to be upgrades in their positions. But the rest just seems the same or maybe worse. And there doesn't appear to be much of a bench if a starter gets hurt.
 
BluHevn said:
I just don't see the players they have coming in being any better than those three were at their positions. Wilson and Veesaar appear to be upgrades in their positions. But the rest just seems the same or maybe worse. And there doesn't appear to be much of a bench if a starter gets hurt.
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It’s not about the players being better it’s about the team being better.
 
ZZLPHeels said:
Hubert missed the NCAAT with RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. He was a hair away from missing the NCAAT with a roster that was ranked top 10 preseason. He’s not going to be able to do anything with rosters that are much less talented than the ones he has already squandered.
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Maybe he’s a “less is more” guy. 🤷‍♂️
 
SnoopRob said:
If he's at $3mil per year, do you think we have enough bag left to throw at Boogie?
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With absolutely no real info on the matter, yes

The floor has decreased significantly with Drake's departure. So you spend a little more than you otherwise would have

Of course there could be politics at play to get HD out of here
 
Heelsandeers said:
With absolutely no real info on the matter, yes

The floor has decreased significantly with Drake's departure. So you spend a little more than you otherwise would have

Of course there could be politics at play to get HD out of here
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Huh, i would think that $3mil per year at this point in the cycle is out of our reach, but maybe it's not. 🤷‍♂️

I sincerely doubt there's a movement to withhold funds just to trip up HD. In fact, I think that the opposite is more likely to be true, that he'd get funds that won't be available annually in an attempt to ensure he has a good year in a "make or break" year.
 
VAL and Drake could possibly return, no?. Small possibilities but still there, correct?
Or does the board think they’re both 100% gone?
With the slight chance that one or both could come back, how does that hamstring the staff (New GM specifically), not knowing, but thinking they can’t move forward until the final shoe falls with those guys?

I will add, on one hand, it’s distressing to know all those dudes are leaving (why?) on the other hand the fact is those guys couldn’t play that well together anyway. (A play in game for an 11 seed? WTF? Finishing conference play where they did in a shitty conference?)

The answer to all of those questions could be one, singular thing: HD and current staff is the reason they’re all leaving (EC, Ian, VAL, Cade, etc…) and also the reason they didn’t have a good season anyway.

HD and staff have to be all in for new portal players, and they had damn well better finish top 3 in conference and get a top 4 or 5 seed - and parlay that into a sweet 16, or it’s adios.
 
Centerpiece said:
VAL and Drake could possibly return, no?. Small possibilities but still there, correct?
Or does the board think they’re both 100% gone?
With the slight chance that one or both could come back, how does that hamstring the staff (New GM specifically), not knowing, but thinking they can’t move forward until the final shoe falls with those guys?

I will add, on one hand, it’s distressing to know all those dudes are leaving (why?) on the other hand the fact is those guys couldn’t play that well together anyway. (A play in game for an 11 seed? WTF? Finishing conference play where they did in a shitty conference?)

The answer to all of those questions could be one, singular thing: HD and current staff is the reason they’re all leaving (EC, Ian, VAL, Cade, etc…) and also the reason they didn’t have a good season anyway.

HD and staff have to be all in for new portal players, and they had damn well better finish top 3 in conference and get a top 4 or 5 seed - and parlay that into a sweet 16, or it’s adios.
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Reading the announcement from Drake, I don't see him coming back.
 
Fairly certain Drake wants to go to the NBA with every fiber of his being but when the deadline to withdraw is near and he ultimately sees that he’s not going to go in the draft where he think he might go, he may come back.

Only time will tell.
 
UNCatTech said:
Reading the announcement from Drake, I don't see him coming back.
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Agents strongly encourage their clients to say things like that when players declare. It is free and helps with some NBA teams. No one tests the water anymore expressly. So, I wouldn't read too much into the actual language of the announcement. The bigger issue is that he is likely 1st round, and that is what will keep him in the draft.​
 
SnoopRob said:
Huh, i would think that $3mil per year at this point in the cycle is out of our reach, but maybe it's not. 🤷‍♂️

I sincerely doubt there's a movement to withhold funds just to trip up HD. In fact, I think that the opposite is more likely to be true, that he'd get funds that won't be available annually in an attempt to ensure he has a good year in a "make or break" year.
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I don't believe that either. Whether it's spent on one player or two, you better find somewhere close to that and fill out the roster
 
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